Hi all,
All eyes on the second and final day Cheltenham’s International meeting. There’s a seven-race card at the home of NH racing. The last four of the seven are being covered by ITV. With the broadcaster also covering three races from Doncaster.
The highlights at Cheltenham are the Grade 2 International Hurdle (3.00), and the Grade 3 Racing Post Gold Cup (1.50). It’s not often the best race on ITV is the first one being broadcast live but the threat of low sun means that’s the case today.
I have concentrated this preview on some of the ITV races. As ever you can find my betting advice at the end of the main piece.
Cheltenham
1:50 – Racing Post Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 4 ½ f
We have a new sponsor of Saturday’s big race at Cheltenham the December Gold Cup. Recent sponsor Caspian Caviar are gone and this year’s race is now the Racing Post December Gold Cup Handicap Chase (1:50). Last year’s race produced a very easy winner in the well handicapped Chatham Street Lad. Hopefully this year’s renewal will prove a bit more competitive.
Key Trends:
170 horses have competed in the in the last 12 renewals of the race.
Odds SP: 18/1 & bigger – 0 winners from 54 runners 5 placed
Horse Age: 9yo and older – 0 winners from 35 runners 3 placed
Days Since Last Run: 16 to 30 – 11 winners from 95 runners +25 26 placed
Last Race Track: Cheltenham – 8 winners from 75 runners +3 19 placed.
All five of the Paul Nicholls winners ran at Cheltenham last time prior to success in race – 5 winners from 16 runners 31% +37 6 placed.
Paul Nicholls has the year’s ante post favourite in Lalor. The 9-year-old is on a winnable mark and was a 2 ¼ length 3rd of 19 to Midnight Shadow in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at the last meeting. That was his first run since switching to the Nicholls yard and the runner-up Protektorat ran away with last week’s Many Clouds Chase at Aintree. His claims are clear for all to see. However, at a best priced 9/2 I can let him win given this looks an 7/1/8/1 the field type of race.
Dostal Phil finished one placed behind Lalor when a 3 ¼ lengths 4th of 19 in Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham last time. He was doing his best work at the finish that day and should be sharper for that run.
Silver Hallmark is interesting back going left-handed. The 7-year-old has just had the three starts over fences and is open to further progress. He was likely in need of the run when 4th of 6 to Fiddlerontheroof in the Colin Parker at Carlisle on his seasonal reappearance.
Farinet is another open to more improvement over fences this season. A winner of a 9-runner listed novice handicap chase at Sandown when last seen in action in March. He’s been waiting for soft ground and is at the right end of the handicaps. Rachel Blackmore is an eyecatching jockey booking. Stablemate Cepage finished runner-up to Frodon in this race in 2018 and won over C&D in January 2020, off 3lb lower. Pulled up here 12 months ago but that run apart the 9-year-old’s form figures on his seasonal return are a respectable 1222P. Top weight is vulnerable to better handicapped rivals, Including Farinet, but may be better suited by the good to soft more than his stablemate.
Siruh Du Lac a smart handicap chaser when with Nick Williams, winning twice over C&D, including at the 2019 Festival. Unseated his rider at the first in last year’s Paddy Power Handicap Chase. Not seen out again until down the field over hurdles here in October. Is 3-3 over fences on good or good to soft ground, including 2-2 at Cheltenham. He’s just 2lb higher than winning the Plate at the Festival and isn’t easily dismissed.
Verdict: Lalor is a worthy favourite, if plenty short enough for me. The Venetia Williams pair are both in the mix. I was hoping for softer ground for Farinet who I think can land a decent handicap chase pot over this winter. It will be tough for top-weight Cepage but he’s got each way claims as he’s probably not as ground dependent as his stablemate. If David Pipe has Siruh Du Lac anywhere back to his best, he’s another with claims.
3:00 – Unibet International Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) – 2m 1f
Seven go to post for the most valuable race of the day.
Song For Someone won this race 12 months ago. However, his form tailed off in the second half of the season. Returned from an 8-month absence with a more encouraging effort when a 3 ¼ length 2nd of 5 to Buzz at Ascot last month. Was trying to 6lb to the winner that day which proved too much of an ask for the 6-year-old. Despite dropping back in trip he’s the one to beat provided there’s an enough juice in the ground.
Guard Your Dreams was 2 ¼ lengths back in third at Ascot. A winner of a C&D handicap hurdler in October. I don’t see why he should reverse placings with Song For Someone today.
Sceau Royal a smart hurdler and consistent hurdler in this sort of company. Won his first two start over hurdles this season before finishing a close-up 1 ½ lengths 3rd of 6 in the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth Hurdle last time. The better the ground, the better his chance.
Heaven Help Us made all to comfortably win the Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle at the Festival in March. The mare put in a better performance than her 13-length 6th of 8 at Punchestown suggests. She was still very much in contention when making a race ending mistake two out. Will be sharper here and not totally out of this if she’s allowed an uncontested lead.
3:35 – Close Brothers Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 2m 4 ½ f
Trapista, a half sister to a Group 1 winner, won her sole start over hurdles when trained in France an made a winning stable debut for Jonjo O’Neill at Huntingdon 41-days ago. Handled good ground last time won on very soft in France. Handicap Hurdle debut off a workable mark of 131 and today’s extra furlong suit should suit the 4-year-old but this is a tough race.
Alan King saddles three contenders in Wynn House, Hotter Than Hell & Her Indoors.
Wynn House made it 3-6 over hurdles when winning a mares’ only handicap hurdle at Wincanton last month. Up 3lb but is going the right way and goes well on good ground.
Hotter Than Hell was ¾ length back in second that day and shouldn’t be far away again.
Her Indoors won here in April over 2m 1f (good). Well below her best form when only 5th of 7 to Molly Ollys Wishes in listed Mares’ Hurdle at Wetherby last time. Course form means she has to be respected although you would have liked to have seen more at Wetherby.
Doncaster
2:05 – bet365 Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 2m ½ f
Paul Nicholls has saddled the winner of this handicap hurdle twice since 2016. He runs Sonigino who must be respected on his second start for the yard and on handicap debut.
Takeit Easy beat Tommy’s Oscar at Wetherby two starts back and was a useful 4 ½ length 2nd of 5 to Onemorefortheroad at Huntingdon last time. Must be respected here, off just 2lb higher than for his Wetherby success.
Tommy’s Oscar has since gone onto win at Haydock but is 9lb higher here and meets Takeit Easy on much worse terms than when they met at Wetherby. That said the 6-year-old goes well on a decent surface and his Haydock success was a career best.
Pyramid Place a useful juvenile hurdler made a good return to action when a ¾ length 2nd of 11 at Chepstow in October. Not really built on that performance on either start since but was disputing second when making a bad mistake three out here last time.
3:15 – bet365 Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 3m
If the ground is soft enough then likely favourite Two For Gold will be tough to beat. The 8-year-old stays 3m but arguably put in a career best when digging deep to beat Aso at Warwick over 2m 4f in February. Just 1lb higher here. First run since unseating his rider in the Topham Chase at Aintree in April. Has won fresh in the past and trainer Kim Bailey saddled last year’s winner.
Fidux is a useful handicap chaser at his best as he showed when winning at Worcester (good) in June, off 4lb lower. A 2-length 3rd of 7 to Strictlyadancer at Haydock (good to soft) last time was arguably a personal best from the 8-year-old. Trainer Alan King won this in 2015 with Sego Success. Could be the one to take advantage should the favourite underperform.
Mance Rayder is 4lb out of the weights here but goes well on good ground. Was doing his best work at the finish when a ½ length 2nd of 6 to Brian Boranha at Catterick (3m 1f) last time. Probably needs a bit further in this sort of company but not discounted, if the rain stays away.
Betting Advice:
Cheltenham
1:50 – 1pt win – Farinet – 17/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook and 0.5pts each way – Siruh Du Lac – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
3:00 – 1pt win – Heaven Help Us – 14/1 @ Bet365
Doncaster
2:05 – 1pt win – Takeit Easy – 7/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:15 – 1pt win – Fidux – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John