Hi all,
As I mentioned on Friday. Who knows how rain will have fallen overnight in Britain & Ireland. It’s going to be a tricky day of punting and given most of the runners have been declared on good ground we can expect a few non-shows.
A tricky weather forecast combined with York’s four day Ebor Festival starting on Wednesday and a decent enough action on Sunday with another leg of the Sky Bet Sunday Series at Sandown and Group action at the Curragh. I don’t feel the need to get stuck too heavily into Saturday’s action.
Like last weekend it’s a quiet one quality wise. The Group 2 Hungerford Stakes (3.35) at Newbury is Saturday’s feature race. The big betting race on Saturday is at Ripon and the Great St Wilfrid Handicap (3:15).
Across the Irish Sea there’s Group action at the Curragh where the highlights are the Group 2 Futurity Stakes (3:27) and Group 2 Debutante Stakes (4:00).
ITV4 are covering four races from Newbury as well as two from Ripon and one from Newmarket on Saturday.
Today’s preview begins at the principal meeting Newbury and my and selections and betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Newbury
1:50 – BetVictor Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 5 ½ f
Early ante post favourite Kemari was back to winning ways in a Listed race at Newmarket last month but I’m not sure he will want the ground to ease too much.
This could turn out to be a perfect opportunity for Arrest. An easy winner of the Chester Vase on soft ground in May before a disappointing favourite (4/1) in the Derby. The colt ran poorly on quick ground at Ascot last time. However, he’s been given a 57 day break to freshen up and a return to an easy surface and a galloping track like Newbury could see him back to form.
Jack Darcy was back to his best last time when a 4 length 2nd of 7 to Hamish in the Group 3 Glorious Stakes at Goodwood 15 days ago. He got a good front running ride that day, but it was still a clear personal best by the 4-year-old. He handled rain softened ground at Goodwood and can go well again.
2:25 – Highclere Castle Gin Handicap (Class 3) – 5f
Whenthedealinsdone let me down at Goodwood and whilst I’m loath to desert him given he’s well treated. Sadly, there weren’t any positives to be taken from his 11th of 12 at Goodwood 18 days ago and given his present well being I will have to leave him out today.
Harry Brown caught the eye racing on the far side when a 6 ½ length 9th of 26 in the Palace of Holyroodhouse Handicap at Royal Ascot two starts back. He also ran well from 4lb out of the handicap when a 2 ¾ length 8th of 15 back at the venue last month. It was good to soft last time and the 3-year-old drops in class here and can win off his present mark.
Libra Tiger improved for facing soft ground when winning a Sandown handicap two starts back. Not seen to best effect on quicker ground at Windsor two days ago. Turned out quickly but likley capable of good run if the ground eases.
3:00 – Heart Bingo Summer Sizzler Handicap (Class 2) – 7f
Lyndon B looked to be running into winning form when a 2 ¾ length 5th of 10 over C&D in June but didn’t really build on that promise at Newmarket last time. On a handy enough mark but would prefer quicker ground than seems likely.
Popmaster was back to winning ways at Ascot (6f) last month and ran better than his 6 ½ length 12th of 15 to Baradar in the valuable International Stakes Handicap back at that venue last time. He seems to stay 7f and won on soft at Ascot.
Osin Murphy who was on Popmaster last time is on the Saeed bin Suroor trained Open Mind. The 4-year-old seemed back to form last time when 3rd of 11 at Chelmsford. Respected once more but I’m not sure he’ll appreciate the forecast rain.
Scholarship won on his juvenile racecourse debut and won first time up over C&D in April (soft). Hasn’t progressed from his reappearance and has disappointed on three subsequent starts. Hopes are pinned on the first time blinkers and soft ground seeing the 3-year-old bounce back to form.
3:35 – BetVictor Hungerford Stakes (Group 2) – 7f
The most valuable race run in Britain today. It doesn’t look the strongest of renewals of the race despite a 10 runner line-up.
Last year’s winner Jumby is back to retain his crown. He’s a got a great chance of doing so but his best form has come on good or quicker ground so any further ease in the ground would be a worry.
Chindit is top on official ratings and his 1 ½ length 2nd of 12 to Modern Games in the Group 1 Locking Stakes here (1m) in May is the best form on offer. A former C&D winner he goes well here but like Jumby his best form has come on quicker ground. This looks a good opportunity for the 5-year-old to return to winning ways, but the forecast rain would concern me.
Pogo looked back to form when a 2 length 3rd of 6 in a Newmarket Group 3 last month. He’s hard horse to peg back if he gets an uncontested lead and although his best form has come quicker ground the 7-year-old has at least won on good to soft in the past.
Spanish challenger Rodaballo might have needed the run, after a 5 month lay off when a 2 ½ length 6th of 9 at Ascot three weeks ago. He’s got a bit to find on Official Ratings with the likes of Chindit, Jumby & Pogo but at the last he has winning form on soft ground. If the rain has arrived he could go well at big odds.
Ripon
The going was described as good on Friday morning, but the course was expecting 12mm on Friday and early on Saturday morning.
2:40 – William Hill Silver Trophy Handicap (Class 4) – 6f
Mark’s Choice is a real course specialist with the 7-year-old having won seven times at the track (5 wins from 17 runs, 10 placed over C&D). Now 4lb below his last winning mark and although his very best form has come on a sound surface, he has won on rain softened ground in the past.
Fortamour is another who seems to reserve his best for Ripon. The 7-year-old is a three time previous C&D winner and was only beaten a nose over C&D 12 days ago. He’s been nudged up 1lb but is still 7lb below his last winning mark and shouldn’t be far away once more.
Northcliff doesn’t come into the race in much form and needs the addition of the first time cheekpieces to have the desired effect.
Strong Johnson is my new “cliff horse”, having tipped him up on his last two starts. There was enough in his 4 ¾ length 6th of 19 at York last time to keep my interest in him. He’s well handicapped on the best of last year’s form when trained in Ireland and although his best form has come over the minimum trip, he seems to stay 6f.
Holbache ran a very encouraging race from an 8 month absence when a 5 ½ length 7th of 16 at York 35 days ago. He was still in the lead 1f out last time before the lack of a recent run seemed to take its toll in the final stages. He will strip fitter today and this track could suit this prominent racer.
3:15 – William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
I have to say I think there have been stronger renewals of the Ripon feature race. Although Summerghand is coming to the boil and is back down to a winnable mark he needs quicker ground to capitalise on it. Although he’s in my tracker I wouldn’t be interested in him today and being 11/2 ante post favourite he’s worth taking on if the rain arrives.
On good to soft/soft ground you couldn’t rule out recent Goodwood winner Monsieur Kodi or previous C&D winner Lakota Blue. The former is up 3lb for his latest win but he’s a consistent sort and goes well on an easy surface. Good chance if stall 2 isn’t an inconvenience. I’m not sure about stall 1 for Lakota Blue but on soft ground he should be there or thereabouts.
Anthem National is officially rated 105 but he’s of interest on debut for Philip Kirby. The 4-year-old posted a career best last time when a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 10 to Commanche Falls in a Listed race at the Curragh last month.
Dream For Gold looks an improving 3-year-old handicap sprinter. He’s finished runner-up on his last two starts and it was a career best effort last time when a neck 2nd of 11 at Newmarket three weeks ago. Up 5lb for last time but remains on a winnable mark taking on older rivals for the first time. He’s got form on good to soft but soft would be an unknown.
Live In The Moment is on a losing run of 21 but he wasn’t disgraced when a 1 ¾ length fourth of 11 to Monsieur Kodi at Goodwood last time. An easy surface suits the 6-year-old who is on a handy mark if the application first time visor has the desired effect.
Cairn Gorm took advantage of a declining handicap mark when beating 15 rivals at York (good to soft) 22 days ago. He’s up 4lb but remains well treated on his useful juvenile form in 2020. If taking to the track looks set for another big performance.
Newmarket
2:05 – JenningsBet Grey Horse Handicap (Class 4) – 6f
Devil’s Angel is 4lb below his last winning mark. However, he didn’t run well at York last time when a well beaten 15 of 16 five weeks ago. He comes with risks attached given his latest effort but is down to handy mark and is a previous C&D winner.
Mitrosonfire won this corresponding race in 2021. Drops a couple of notches in class after 17th of 25 to Baradar in International Stakes Handicap at Ascot last time and the drop back to 6f should the 5-year-old more.
Silver Samurai won twice over 6f last season. Not at his best on his first four starts on season turf this season but his 3 length 5th of 9 over C&D three weeks ago was a step back in the right direction. He can be a tricky ride, but the handicapper has given him a real chance. Provided the ground doesn’t get to soft and they go a decent pace I can see him going well.
Strike won a five runner renewal of last year’s corresponding, from 3lb lower. He posted a seasonal best when a head 2nd of 9 here (7f) last month. Given a decent pace to chase has strong claims of back to back wins in the race.
Masterclass was well below form on his first three starts this season but took advantage of a drop into Class 6 company to win at Yarmouth 9 days ago. Up 3lb and a couple of notches in class makes life tougher for the 4-year-old but at least he comes into the race in form.
Divine Libra performed well on heavy ground to win at Catterick (7f) in April and returned to winning ways at Chester (6f, soft) two starts back. The 3-year-old wasn’t disgraced back on quicker ground and up in class when a 2 length 3rd of 10 over C&D 21 days ago. Down in class here and off the same mark and seems to set for another big performance with James Doyle booked.
Betting Advice:
2:25 – Libra Tiger – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral
Newbury
3:00 – Popmaster – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral
Ripon
2:40 – Mark’s Choice – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral and Holbache – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral
3:15 – Live In The Moment – 1pt win – 16/1 @ Coral and Cairn Gorm – 1pt win – 11/1 @ Coral
Newmarket
2:05 – Silver Samurai – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Coral and Devil’s Angel – 1pt win – 18/1 @ Coral
Cheers
John