Hi all,
This afternoon’s Phoenix Stakes (4:40) isn’t the only Group 1 this weekend. On Sunday it’s the Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville and it’s shaping up into a cracker for the most prestigious 1m race run in France during the flat season. There’s a mighty purse of £505,664 on offer to the winner of the race.
The Shergar Cup takes centre stage in Britain today. All six races from the Shergar Cup are being covered live on ITV4 as well as two from Haydock and one from Newmarket. There’s also the bonus of the broadcaster taking the big Irish Group 1 race live. So, if the Shergar Cup isn’t your cup of tea you have several other ITV4 races to get stuck into.
As ever I have previewed to some extent all ten races live this afternoon on ITV4.
Curragh
4:40 – Keeneland Phoenix Stakes (Group 1)
Likely favourite River Tiber wasn’t declared by Aidan O’Brien who now relies on Unquestionable & His Majesty. The O’Brien colts face five rivals which means there are two more runners than in last year’s race.
Unquestionable is vying for favouritism with Bucanero Fuerte who beat the O’Brien colt by short head in the Anglesey Stakes over C&D last month. Aidan must believe that his colt can reverse placings with Bucanero Fuerte but on easy ground I wouldn’t be too sure. Both colts are open to further improvement and there shouldn’t be much between the pair once more.
It’s not a two horse race though. We haven’t seen Givemethebeatboys since he finished a 1 ¾ length 4th of 20 to River Tiber in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. He was ¾ length and 1 place behind Bucanero Fuerte that day and this race has been the target since.
It’s good to see Donnacha O’Brien run his star filly Porta Fortuna. The daughter of Caravaggio made it a perfect 3 from 3 when winning the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot. She’s a speedy sort and Osin Murphy comes over for the ride. She doesn’t have much to find with the market leaders on Official Ratings and just like them is open to more improvement.
Ascot: Shergar Cup
For many punters, me included, it won’t be a card to get to heavily involved in. However, I will be having an interest in most of the races.
1:35 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Dash (Class 2) – 5f
I was interested in Tees Spirit in the opener. The 5-year-old returns to handicap company is nicely treated on the best of last years’ form. Well beaten in a Group 2 at Chantilly when last seen in action in June so needs to bounce back and is at is best on good or quicker ground. The drying ground could see him return to winning ways, but will it be dry enough. Existent was not match for Lord Riddiford when runner-up at Goodwood 11 days ago. Very much in the mix once more and could win if the pace is strong enough.
2:10 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Stayers (Class 2) – 2m
The Very Man, trained by Jessica Harrington, has returned to the flat with two good efforts. Finishing 4th of 18 at the Curragh in May and a ½-length 2nd of 20 to Teed Up at Galway 12 days ago. Now 4lb higher than last time but should be and bang there once more.
2:45 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Challenge (Class 2) – 1m 4f
William Haggas won this corresponding race last year withPride Of Prioryand the 5-year-old is back again. But the trainer sets punters a bit of a poser as he also saddles likely favourite La Yakel.
Pride Of Priory wasn’t at his best on three starts this season but there was more to like about his 3rd of 7 at Ripon three weeks ago. He can race off the same mark as 12 months ago and this has likely been the plan.
La Yakel seems likely to go off favourite. A winner over C&D on handicap debut last September. The 4-year-old posted a career best on RPR’s when a neck 2nd of 7 over C&D last month. That was a pleasing belated seasonal reappearance and provided the ground hasn’t dried out too much he should go close.
May Mayhem hails from the red hot Kevin Philippart De Foy yard – 7 winners from 18 runners in the past 14 days. The 5-year-old was back to form when 3 ¼ length 6th of 18 in the Duke Of Edinburgh over C&D two starts back and progressed again when a ¾ length 2nd of 7 over C&D 15 days ago. Nudged up 3lb for his latest effort but likely to be better positioned than most in what might not be the strongest run race.
3:20 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Mile (Class 2) – 1m
Plenty in with a chance in what looks the toughest race of the card for me. The bookies don’t think it’s tricky as they have Perotto installed as a very short priced favourite.
Perotto took advantage of some leniency from the handicapper to return to winning ways at Sandown two starts back. And he wasn’t disgraced when a 4 ¼ length 7th of 20 in the Golden Mile Handicap at Goodwood 8 days ago.
The handicapper seems to have got Empirestateofmind for now but he can normally be relied on to give his running in races like this. Not beaten far when 5th of 9 to Ghaly here two weeks ago and with Dettori booked can’t be ruled out.
Escobar wasn’t seen to best effect when a 7 ¼ length 13th of 20 in the Golden Mile Handicap at Goodwood last time. The 9-year-old hasn’t been at his best so far this season but has dropped to 5lb below his last winning mark which came here (7f) last October. Likely to pop up sometime.
Positive Impact was in good form around this time last year. However, he needs to bounce back from a couple of underwhelming performances in Meydan earlier in the year.
Fox Tal, trained by Andrew Balding, has the ability to win this but isn’t the reliable and is a tricky ride. He returns from a 211 day lay off but has gone well fresh and can’t be ruled out even though he’s one of the outsiders.
3:55 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Classic – 1m 4f
Satin, trained by Jessica Harrington, gained a second career success when winning a Killarney handicap (1m 3f) last month. The step up to 1m 4f could elicit more improvement from the filly and she’s high on my shortlist.
Golden Move improved for the step up to 1m 4f when winning on handicap debut at Doncaster (soft) three weeks ago. Up 5lb but going the right way and is open to further improvement.
Rajasthan got off the mark at the third attempt when winning a Salisbury maiden (1m 2f) 45 days ago. He’s another open to improvement if staying today’s longer trip. The colt is bred to better than a 87 rated horse and looks on a workable mark on handicap debut.
Like A Tiger had looked progressive when winning a Newmarket handicap on his seasonal return and bounced back from a poor run when 1 ¼ length 5th of 11 at Yarmouth 16 days ago. He’s lightly raced he’s not of this, but drying ground would be a concern.
Scintillante probably won’t get in (second reserve) but would have a decent chance if he did. The 3-year-old won a Chester handicap two starts back. He didn’t get the clearest of runs 2f out when a 5 ¾ length 4th of 10 over C&D 15 days ago. He’s going the right way and one for the shortlist.
4:30 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Sprint – 6f
Quinault did me favour when landing a handicap six timer at Newmarket last month. It will take a brave punter to oppose him but today could be the day to do it.
Harry & Roger Charlton saddle a couple of live contenders in Batal Dubai & Zaman Jemil. The former was twice a winner as 2-year-old and bounced back from a low key seasonal return to win a Newcastle handicap in decisive fashion last time. He’s unexposed and capable of further progress. Zaman Jemil relished the quick ground when winning at Thirsk last month. Up 6lb but today’s stiffer 6f should suit him even better and he’ll be happy if the ground continues to dry out.
Dark Trooper has looked much improved for winning his last two starts at Yarmouth (good to soft) and Haydock (heavy) six days ago. A 3lb penalty shouldn’t prevent him from going close and given his present vein of form is difficult to ignore.
Rest of the ITV races
Besides the Shergar Cup ITV racing are covering three races from Haydock & Newmarket this afternoon.
Haydock
2:25 – Betfred ‘Play Fred’s £5 Million’ Handicap (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Class 3) – 1m
A strange race given it’s a qualifier for a final that’s on the all-weather at Kempton. Plus, ITV have ignored what looks a cracking renewal of the Listed Dick Hern Stakes (4:10). Clearly, they weren’t expecting fourteen to line-up for the latter contest.
Isle Of Jura looks a big improver after easy win wins at Newbury & Newmarket. The handicapper has hiked the colt up 14lb for the latest of those success but that might stop him completing the hat trick although stall 13 might.
Poet Master made it 2-2 when winning here (7f) last month. The son of Lope De Vega is least experienced of the 15 runners but is also open to the most improvement. Could be on a good mark on handicap debut.
Kathab won a Ripon maiden last month. Not sure how well handicapped the 3-year-old is off a mark of 85 but looks the sort who should be suited by a strongly run race on handicap debut.
Bodorgan caught my eye when a promising 4 ¾ length 5th of 11 to Covey in the valuable Silver Bowl Handicap over C&D on seasonal return. He hasn’t built on that promise on two subsequent starts and might want easy ground to take advantage of what looks a handy mark.
Helm Rock could be the best of the older horses. A three time winner last season with the last of those successes coming over C&D last September, from 2lb lower. Not handicapped out of this but has something to prove after a couple of low key runs.
3:00 – Betfred Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 2 ½ f
Al Aasy was back to form when winning a Listed race at Newbury 3 weeks ago. If he’s in the same form as last time which is a big if, he’s the one to beat on form.
Midnight Mile was also back to her best last time when winning a Listed race at York 15 days ago. That was a career best on RPR’s by the 3-year-old and if she gets a solid gallop to chase she could be the one to take advantage if Al Aasy doesn’t perform to his best.
Newmarket
3:40 – Molson Coors Sweet Solera Stakes (Group 3) – 7f
With six of the eight juveniles open to further improvement it’s a tricky little contest.
Fallen Angel looked a useful prospect when winning on racecourse debut at Haydock and the daughter of Too Darn Hot improved again in defeat when a ½ length 2nd of 9 to Shuwari in Listed race at Sandown 16 days ago. Capable of better and should be suited by further than 7f in time.
Soprano would have a big chance if reproducing her 2 length 3rd of 17 to Porta Fortuna in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot. One place and a length behind Fallen Angel at Sandown and today’s quicker ground is a plus for her.
Carolina Reaper got off the mark at the third attempt when making all to win a maiden over C&D three weeks ago. Likely be well positioned in a race that isn’t predicted to be strongly run. Yard won this corresponding race 12 months ago and they could follow up here.
Wild Goddess was another to get off the mark over C&D last month. The daughter of Camelot looks a useful prospect for Charlie Appleby but doesn’t hold any group entries at this stage but that’s not to say she won’t be up to this class.
Curragh
Three from the Curragh that have interested me.
4:00 – Zabeir’s sole career success came at Dundalk last September and he’s 0-10 on turf but he did run well here in two handicaps including when a 1 ¾ length 3rd of 18 over C&D last month. Has disappointed on his last two starts but Colin Keane booked and if all the cards fall right he could go well on big odds.
5:10 – Secret Magician’s sole career success came in maiden over C&D 12 months ago and he was only beaten a nose in C&D handicap last October, from 4lb higher. Was returning from a 71 day lay off when 12th of 16 at Galway 7 days ago. Should be sharper today and if stall 3 isn’t an inconvenience the 4-year-old is handicapped to win.
5:40 – Silmaniya was doing her best work at the finish when a 1 ¼ length 6th of 16 in a C&D handicap two starts back, Shaped like a step up trip to 6f was worth a try at Cork last time but the 3-year-old is kept at 5f and the first time visor is applied. Trainer Johnny Murtagh is 0-17 in the past 14 days but he’s done well with his runners in the first time visor with 7 winners from 37 runners 19% +30.25 16 placed 43%.
All three of Curragh fancies come with risks attached but I’m hopeful there is winner amongst them. I haven’t put them up as selections here because not enough bookmakers had priced up the races at the time of writing. Watch your inboxes for any updates on Saturday morning.
Betting Advice:
Ascot
1:35 – Existent – 1pt win – 5/1 @ Coral
2:10 – The Very Man – 1pt win – 5/1 @ Coral
2:45 – Max Mayhem – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral
3:20 – Empirestateofmind – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Coral
3:55 – Satin – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral
Haydock
3:00 – Midnight Mile – 1pt win – 5/1 @ Coral
I may put up a selection or two for Sunday’s big race at Deauville. If I don’t it’s likely there won’t be any selections for the service until Friday but as ever keep an eye open for any updates.
Cheers
John