Hi all,
A poor start to the month on Friday but today gives us a good chance of compensation.
The Coral Scottish Grand National (3.35) is the clear highlight of the day from a betting perspective. Trainer Christian Williams has a strong hand for the £150,000 Grade 3 race with Kitty’s Light and recent Eider Chase winner Win My Wings heading the ante post betting.
The Ayr supporting card also includes two Grade 2 races the Scottish Champion Hurdle (2.25) and the Future Champion Novices’ Chase (3.00).
Newbury a second day of jump racing with the feature race being the Grade 2 British EBF BetVictor “NH” Novices’ Mares’ Hurdle (Series Final) (2:45). The race which has £40,000 in guaranteed prize money has attracted a good field of seventeen mares.
Across the Irish Sea its flat racing that takes centre stage with Leopardstown hosting a seven-race card with two Guineas Trials and the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes (3.45) sure to provide to some interesting pointers for the coming months of the new season.
ITV are covering the best of the action from Ayr & Newbury as part of an eight-race programme.
I begin today’s preview at Ayr and my betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Ayr
I have had a look four of the five races being covered live by ITV.
1:15 – Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Listed Race) – 2m ½ f
Sebastopol seemed to be well suited by the fitting of the visor when winning by 6 ½ lengths at Kempton (good) last month. Up 8lb here but if the visor continues to have the desired effect, he will be tough to beat on ground that suits.
Dubai Days was a decisive winner over C&D yesterday and would have to be respected under his 5lb penalty if turning out quickly.
Malystic an improving novice chaser last season was jumping well and just in the lead when unseating his rider five out at Doncaster last month. That was the 8-year-old’s first start for 11 months. If his confidence hasn’t been dented by his last time out mishap, he would be a big contender here.
1:50 – CPMS Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m
Dusart will find this much more to his liking than when 14 ¼ lengths 5th of 9 to L’homme Presse in Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham Festival. On a workable mark, despite top-weight, for his handicap debut and will like this ground better than at Cheltenham.
Sounds Russian completed a hat trick over fences when beating two rivals at Kelso in February. Up 13lb for his latest win demands more improvement from the 7-year-old but he’s on an upward curve and this race has been the target since Kelso.
The Golden Rebel a winner at Doncaster two starts back, from a subsequent winner, was in front when falling at the 9th back at that venue 81-days ago. Has been given plenty of time to recover from what looked a heavy fall. The step up to 3m should suit and could bring out for the further improvement in the 8-year-old.
Lord Accord needs good to soft or good ground to be at his best. The 7-year-old made it 2 from 4 over fences when beating three rivals at Taunton two starts back. Last of three at Doncaster last time but the ground would have been plenty soft enough for him that day and better can be expected
2:25 – Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) – 2m
Milkwood won this race last year before going on to finish a 2-length 2nd of 20 in the Galway Hurdle last summer. Didn’t seem to take fences when beaten on his sole start this season. The 8-year-old is 8lb higher than 12 months ago and connections will be hoping the track doesn’t get to much overnight rain.
West Cork won the valuable Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham on his seasonal reappearance in November and ran just as well when a 5 ¼ length 4th of 26 in the County Hurdle last month. He can make up into good 2m novice chaser next season but looks like he has another nice pot in him over hurdles.
Alqamar completed a four timer over hurdles between May & August last year. The 8-year-old was still travelling well when unseating his rider four out at Wetherby 171-days ago. A previous C&D winner, this is a much deeper race but the drier the ground the better for his chance.
3:35 – Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 4m
Christian Williams has strong hand with the front two in the ante post betting in Kitty’s Light & Win My Wings.
Kitty’s Light is well suited to a sound surface and a return to a marathon trip is a positive after his 2 ¾ length 2nd of 14 at Kempton (3m) last time. Win My Wings bids for the Eider/Scottish Grand National Double after her success at Newcastle. She’s 8lb higher now but the step up to 4m drew plenty of improvement out of the mare and if in the same mood won’t be far away.
The Ferry Master finished a 7 ½ length 4th of 22 in last year’s race. He was travelling like the most likely coming to the home turn 12 months ago. However, he didn’t see out the race as strongly as the three who finished in front of him. No problem with his mark though as he’s 5lb lower this time around.
Major Dundee lacks the experience of most of his rivals. Having had just three starts over the larger obstacles. He’s going the right way though and the 7-year-old looks worth a try over long distances for a yard that won this in 2013.
Jersey Bean looked an improving staying handicap chaser when rallying on the run in to win at Haydock over 3m 4f last time. Decent ground really suits the 9-year-old.
Another suited by good ground is One More Fleurie. The 8-year-old was a big improver last spring and won the valuable 3m novices handicap chase at this meeting 12 months ago. Looks nicely treated on the best of last season’s form but not in any sort of form on three starts this season.
The Irish landed the Midland Grand National and would have several live chances here.
Mister Fogpatches finished third in last year’s race and instead of running that consistent staying handicap chaser trainer Pat Fahy relies on Stormy Judge & History Of Fashion. The former is the one I like of the pair. He shaped better than his 22-length 5th of 12 in Leinster National Handicap Chase last time suggests. Yet to run on ground as quick as is likely on Saturday but he does look progressive and could be on a good mark.
Verdict: I’m loathe to leave Kitty’s Light out of final selections, as I think the step up to 4m and likely strong pace will really suit the 6-year-old. In the end I have gone with Stormy Judge and Major Dundee and big odds One More Fleurie.
Newbury
1:35 – Play Pick 6 At BetVictor Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m
Punctuation is sure to be popular in his hat trick bid after wins at Warwick and here over 2m ½ f last time. He’s 8lb higher than last time and both wins have come on soft ground but he’s progressing well and today’s extra 3f should suit the progressive 5-year-old.
Royaume Uni took advantage of a drop-in class and the step up to 2m 3f when a 7-length winner at Fontwell 24-days ago. Both his hurdle wins have come on good ground so connections will be hoping the ground doesn’t deteriorate before post time. He’s up 6lb for his Fontwell win but if the favourite fails to handles the better ground, he could be the one to take advantage.
2:10 – Download The BetVictor App Cond’ Jockeys’ Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Veterans’ Chase Series Final) (Class 2) – 2m 7 ½ f
La Cavsa Nostra made it 3-6 over fences when winning a qualifier for this at Hereford 34-days ago. Lightly raced for his age he clearly hasn’t been the easiest to keep sound and this will be only the 10-year old’s third start since November 2019. Up 3lb for his latest win demands a bit more from him but the first time cheekpieces could eek out more improvement.
Bermeo must be respected on his first start for the inform Harry Fry (6-15 in the past 14-days). The 11-year-old. Not in much form on his three starts for his previous trainer earlier in the season. Looks well treated on his best form and has won five times on good ground in the past. If the stable switch has had the desired effect he won’t be far away.
2:45 – British EBF BetVictor racingtohelpukraine.uk “NH” Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) – 2m 4 ½ f
A good-sized field for the Newbury feature with hopefully sixteen mares set to meet the starter.
Early bird favourite Speech Bubble has top-weight to carry here but looks to have excellent claims on her handicap debut. The 7-year-old finished a 2 ¼ length 2nd of 6 to Love Envoi in a Grade 2 mares’ novices’ hurdle at Sandown last time. The winner has since gone onto boast that form when winning the Dawn Run Mares’ Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. The forecast strong pace will suit here but the ground will be totally different to at Sandown.
Holly Hartingo won her first two starts over hurdles at Ludlow (2m 5 ½ f) and Huntingdon (2m 3 ½ f). Not suited by the drop back to 2m at Hereford three weeks ago so a line can be drawn through that run. Had looked an improver when winning at Huntingdon and the return to this sort of trip will suit the 6-year-old.
Good Luck Charm made it 2-3 since going hurdling when winning on her handicap hurdle debut (2m ½ f) at Exeter 36-days ago. She showed a good attitude to win last time and given she stays 2m 5f it was a good effort. Up 4lb for that success good ground is a bit of an unknown, won on good to soft at Hereford in January, but if she handles it, she’s only 4lb higher than for her win at Exeter and has each way claims.
Leopardstown
It’s Trials Day at Leopardstown this afternoon and I have a couple of fancies on the card.
3:10 – Ballylinch Stud “Priory Belle” 1,000 Guineas Trial Stakes (Group 3) – 7f
Sacred Bridge brings the best juvenile form to the race and if she’s trained on will take some beating here. I’m expecting a better performance from the Dermot Weld trained Homeless Songs. The daughter of Frankel looked a smart juvenile prospect when beating Agartha on her racecourse debut over C&D last July. Didn’t really improve on two subsequent starts last season but is highly regarded by her trainer and she should go well here.
3:45 – P.W. McGrath Memorial Ballysax Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 2f
The Ballysax Is a race trainer Dermot Weld won with Fascinating Rock (2014) and Harzand (2016). He saddles Duke De Sessa in this year’s renewal. The colt has a 3lb penalty to carry for his Group 3 success here over 1m 1f on his final juvenile start but he will be suited by the step up to 1m 2f and the trainer mentioned last year that the son of Lope De Vega could be Derby contender.
Betting Advice:
Ayr
1:15 – 1pt win – Malystic – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1:50 – 1pt win – The Golden Rebel – 13/2 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Lord Accord – 15/2 @ Bet365
3:35 – 1pt win – Major Dundee – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes, 1pt win – Stormy Judge – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – One More Fleurie – 18/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Newbury
2:10 – 1pt win – La Cavsa Nostra – 5/1 @ Bet365
2:45 – 1pt win – Holly Hartingo – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Leopardstown
3:10 – 1pt win – Homeless Songs – 15/2 @ Bet365
3:45 – 1pt win – Duke De Sessa – 5/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John