Hi all,
For the third successive weekend we have a Grand National to enjoy. Today is the turn of the Scottish Grand National (3:35) at Ayr. Let’s hope the race is dramatic for the right reasons rather than what we had at Aintree seven days ago.
There’s good supporting card of races at Ayr including a good renewal of the Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle (2:25).
Besides Ayr. The ITV cameras are also covering four races from Newbury including the the John Porter Stakes (1.30), and two Guineas Trials: the Fred Darling Stakes (2.05) & Greenham Stakes (2.40)
In this preview I’m looking at all the races on ITV this afternoon. Saturday’s selections and betting advice will be with you later.
Ayr
1:15 – Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – 2m ½ f
Frere D’armes impressed when winning his first two starts over fences. Off for four months and may have just needed the run when a 5 length 2nd of 9 to Black Gerry at Ascot 20-days ago. Races off the same mark here, is open to further improvement and looks to have strong claims. The first time tongue tie is a slight worry, but the trainer won this race in 2019.
Return Ticket, Malystic and Gold Des Bois were first, second and third in this race 12 months ago. At the weights Return Ticket is handicapped to finish in front once again. The 10-year-old took advantage of a declining mark to win at Carlisle two weeks ago. Has a 9lb rise in the weight to contend with but is still 1lb below last year’s winning mark.
Hasankey and Pay The Piper were fourth and fifth in the valuable Red Rum Handicap Chase at Aintree 9-days ago. Hasankey hasn’t won since February 2022 but is back down to a competitive mark and has won over C&D in the past. Pay The Piper wasn’t well placed last time but he was doing his best work at the finish, and I can see him finishing in front of Hasankey this time.
1:50 – CPMS Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m
City Chief will take plenty of beating here. The 6-year-old got off the mark at the second attempt over fences when winning at Hereford and improved again to win the Grade 2 Towton Novices’ Chase at Wetherby in February. He won a novice handicap hurdle at this meeting last year and trainer Nicky Henderson won this last year with Dusart. His biggest rival could be the Dan Skelton trained Sail Away. The 7-year-old looks on good mark, is suited by a sound surface and the yard won this in 2019. Connections will be hoping the rain stays away.
2:25 – Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) – 2m
Hard to rule out any of the 11 runners in what looks like a deep renewal of the race.
Colonel Mustard a useful hurdler last season finishing a 3 length 3rd of 26 to State Man in the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Not disgraced on two starts over fences but ran another cracker back over hurdles when a 2 length 2nd of 16 to Benson in Morebattle Handicap Hurdle at Kelso last time. He’s been nudged up 3lb which makes life tougher, but he did bypass Cheltenham and Aintree.
First Street won the Gerry Feilden over the distance at Newbury (good) in November and ran just as well when a 6 ¼ length 3rd of 9 to stablemate Marie’s Rock in the Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle at Cheltenham (2m ½f) on New Year’s Day. Not as good on both starts since though and needs a career best to win this.
Parisencore gained a third win over hurdles when winning at Wetherby on his seasonal return. He was well beaten by First Street in the Gerry Feilden but bounced back to his best when a 1 ½ length 2nd of 10 at Musselburgh last time. Four pound out of the handicap here but totally discounted.
Anna Bunina won this last year, from 9lb lower, and is expected to go well again on ground that suits. Not disgraced when 9th of 24 in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham on good to soft last time. The forecast is for a strong pace which is ideal for her and despite being much higher than in the weights than 12 months ago should go close.
Milkwood probably isn’t the horse he was when winning this in 2021. However, it’s hard to deny he’s become well handicapped. He was only an 8 length 5th of 9 to Anna Bunina 12 months ago but is 21lb better off with mare. He will get the race run to suit and the quicker the ground the better for him.
Highway One O Two is a tough horse to pass when getting his own way out in front as he showed when winning an Ascot Handicap Hurdle back in October. Not at that level of form on two subsequent starts but better when a 4 ½ length 6th of 24 in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham last time. Effective on a sound surface and shouldn’t be far away.
3:00 – Jordan Electrics Ltd Future Champion Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) – 2m 4 ½ f
Balco Coastal impressed when winning a Kempton novices handicap chase on his second start over fences. And improved again to finish 2nd of 5 to Gerri Colombe in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown. Disappointed when last of 7 in the Turners Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival but is the sort who could bounce back on this flatter track.
Datsalrightgino has won just one of his seven starts over fences this season but ran well in defeat, finishing runner-up to Solo in the Grade 2 Pendil Novices Chase at Kempton. He pulled up in the Plate Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival when the soft ground probably didn’t suit. The first time cheekpieces he wore that day are also dispensed with and could be the main reason why he failed to fire last time.
Thunder Rock a winner of his first two starts over fences in handicap company but he’s been found out in Graded company on his last three starts. Better ground will suit better than at Cheltenham last time and this race easier than what he’s been running in of late.
Telmesomethinggirl a four time winner over hurdles she would have gone close in last season’s Mares Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival but for being brought down two out. The winner of a Naas beginners chase on her second start over fences she improved again when 4 length 2nd of 5 in Listed Mares Novices’ Chase at Thurles last time. Capable of winning more races and does get the 7lb mares’ allowance.
3:35 – Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – 4m
Twenty three were declared for today’s big betting race.
Kitty’s Light was runner-up to stablemate Win My Wings 12 months ago and has been installed as the ante post favourite by the sponsors. He returned to winning ways in the Eider Chase at Newcastle last time a race that was won last year by Win My Wings before coming here. He’s up 8lb for his Eider Chase success but remains on a competitive mark.
Lucinda Russell won the Grand National with Corach Rambler last Saturday and she seems likely to saddle Your Own Story and possibly 2021 winner Mighty Thunder. The rise in the weights has benefitted both the Russell horses.
Your Own Story might be a novice, but he’s got plenty of experience over the larger obstacles and posted a career best when ½-length 2nd of 8 at Haydock last month. He stayed 3m 4 f last time and looks set to be suited by the step up to 4m.
Mighty Thunder hasn’t won since successful in this race two years ago and has been well out of form. A bit better when 17 ¼ length 5th of 10 at Kelso over an adequate 3m 2 ½ f last time. Hinted last time that he could be building towards a bigger performance. Now 19lb lower than when winning in 2021.
There’s been money for progressive staying handicap chaser Monbeg Genius after his excellent 2 ¾ length 3rd of 23 to Corach Rambler in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
Sandy Thomson deserves a change of luck having lost Hill Sixteen at Aintree last Saturday. He has two entries in recent Kelso scorer Empire Steel and Flower of Scotland. The latter is proven over 4m having won the Borders National at Kelso over that distance. She appeals but may prefer softer ground.
Undersupervision was back to form when a neck 2nd of 7 to Moroder at Doncaster last time. He’s the most reliable, but is ground versatile, and stamina looks his strong suit. After the race the trainer said that the 7-year-old would be aimed at the race. Yard won the race in 2009 and has eight others placed including two who finished second. If you had backed all his nineteen runners in the race each way since 2009 you would be +£40.25 to a £1 stake.
Others for the shortlist include improving staying novice handicap chaser Famous Bridge. If he stays 4m he’s handicapped to go close. No stamina concerns for Edinburgh National winner Magna Sam. He jumped well to win last time and can go well.
Recent Newbury winner Flash Collonges is well suited to good ground. The 8-year-old has been a slow learner but might finally have got the hang of things over the larger obstacles.
Newbury
1:30 – Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes (The John Porter Stakes) (Group 3)
Just the eight for the Newbury opener but it looks an above average renewal of the race.
Hurricane Lane ran just twice last year in a short campaign. However, if the 5-year-old was able to reproduce his Irish Derby & Doncaster St Leger winning performances then he would be tough to beat. The bookies are taking no chances as they have him odds on here. I think he’s short enough in the betting given he has a question to answer regarding retaining his old ability looking at last year’s performances.
Mojo Star wants drying ground, but he’s got to be respected on his ½ length 2nd of 9 to Kyprios in the Ascot Gold Cup on his seasonal return last season.
Israr looked a potential Group performer when winning a Doncaster last October. Well beaten in the November Handicap but that race came just two weeks after his win at the venue. Capable of much better as a 4-year-old.
Ralph Beckett has two strong contenders in Max Vega and Lone Eagle. The first named won this race last year and his best three RPR’s have come at the track. This year’s race looks better than last year’s, but he can’t be ruled out a venue that suits.
Lone Eagle makes his debut for the trainer and interestingly the first time blinkers are applied. He was a neck runner-up to Hurricane Lane in the 2021 Irish Derby, but he struggled to replicate that form on four subsequent starts including two runs last year. Trainer has a good record with horses going in the first time blinkers and if Lone Eagle can get back to his high class 3-year-old form he would have a big chance. Like Hurricane Lane he has questions regarding his well-being but he’s much bigger odds.
2:05 – Dubai Duty Free Stakes (The Fred Darling Stakes) (Group 3) -7f
The first of the two Guineas Trials. Alcohol Free won this in 2021 before finishing 5th in the 1,000 Guineas. The race hasn’t been the best of guides for the first fillies classic and you have to go back to 2000 to find the last horse to run here and then go onto success in the 1,000 Guineas.
Swingalong is the best of these on 2-year-old form. A surprise winner (25/1) of the Group 2 Lowther Stakes at York. She then went on to finish a 4 length 4th of 10 to Lezoo in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket.
Richard Hannon won the Nell Gwyn at Newmarket on Wednesday, and he could have another good filly in Magical Sunset. A three time winner as a juvenile. She ended last season on the up winning the Listed Radley Stakes over C&D last October. This has been the plan and Kevin Stott opts for her ahead of Olivia Maralda.
There are a couple of once raced winners in Bridestones and Remarquee who are capable of more improvement on their second seasons. Bridestones looked a useful prospect when winning at Yarmouth (soft) last October. We know the daughter of Teofilo goes on an easy surface and she can go well for a yard that was successful in 2017.
Remarquee looked a filly capable of being a Group performer this year when winning at Salisbury (good to soft) on her racecourse debut last September. The daughter of Kingman should be suited by a mile and maybe a bit further this season. Trainer saddled the winner in 2015 and if Remarquee has the speed for 7f then she looks the one to be with.
2:40 – Watership Down Stud Too Darn Hot Greenham Stakes (Group 3) – 7f
With Noble Style not being declared. Dewhurst winner Chaldean is now a clear favourite for the race. The colt doesn’t have to carry a penalty for his Group 1 success and connections of the 2,000 Guineas second favourite will be hoping he make a winning seasonal return just two weeks before the first colt’s classic. It will be interesting to see if he has made any physical progression over the winter as he wasn’t the biggest at two. That said he’s the clear pick on form.
Streets of Gold won all his five starts last season and proved his stamina for 7f when winning at York in October. A tough juvenile, he deserves his place in the line-up but will need to have improved from two to three to beat the favourite but has each way claims if he has.
Knight overcame greenness to win on racecourse debut at Yarmouth last September and improved again to win the Group 3 Horris Hill Stakes over C&D a month later. Very much worth his place in a Guineas Trial. He relished heavy ground last time so any further easing of the going won’t inconvenience the colt.
Chaldean is clear on ratings, but really testing ground would be an unknown. If the rain has arrived to keep the ground genuinely soft, then Knight could close the gap on the favourite.
3:15 – BetGoodwin Spring Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 1m
Lattam improved to win the Irish Lincolnshire at the Curragh (heavy) on his seasonal reappearance last month. Although he’s up 5lb for his latest win he’s only had five career starts and could be capable of better.
Atrium, a previous C&D winner won on soft ground at Doncaster last September but didn’t seem to appreciate heavy ground in the Lincoln. Better ground does suit the 4-year-old so I’m hoping that Newbury doesn’t get too much rain.
Saga’s standout performance last season came in the first time blinkers when a head 2nd of 30 to Thesis in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot. He didn’t build on that on three subsequent starts and the first time cheekpieces replace the blinkers today.
Jimi Hendrix was one place and 1 ½ lengths behind Saga in the Britannia Handicap. He won a mile handicap at Newmarket a month later and is 2lb worse off with Saga here. Below his best on his final three starts last season. Down the field in the Lincoln on his seasonal reappearance and trainer Ralph Beckett puts on the first time blinkers in the hope that the 4-year-old to bounce back to form.
Brunch can normally be relied upon to give his running in handicaps like this. Runner-up in the 2021 Lincoln, his best performance last season came when he ran Cruyff Turn to head in a similar handicap at York last May. Off the same mark as at York and William Buick is an eyecatching jockey booking (2-5 for the yard).
Galiac won last year on his seasonal reappearance so can go fresh. Whilst he’s likely to win more races this season, I just wonder if he requires good ground.
Bear Force One is a dual course winner including over the distance. The 7-year-old returned to winning ways at Kempton 21 days ago. Up 4lb for his latest win but Billy Loughnane takes off a handy 5lb. He’s never been the most consistent of handicappers and he’s another may prefer a sounder surface.
Selections and betting advice to follow later
Cheers
John