Hi all,
There’s plenty of racing both on the flat and over the jumps over the Easter Weekend and that means lots of betting opportunities for fans of both codes.
Newbury’s first Flat meeting of the season with three Group 3 contests the highlights of an eight-race card being the John Porter Stakes (1.50), Fred Darling Stakes (2.25) and Greenham Stakes (3.00). The latter two races are recognised trials for the upcoming 1,000/2,000 Guineas. All three races are live on ITV4 this afternoon who are also covering four races from Musselburgh where the feature race is the Betway Queen’s Cup (3:14) which has £100,000 in guaranteed prize money with £51,540 on offer to the winner.
Besides Newbury and Musselburgh it’s a busy day’s action today with seven other meetings across Britain & Ireland. At Haydock its Challenger Series Finals Day with six finals on a seven-race card. Sadly, ITV don’t have the time to cover the meeting. The best of the action across the Irish Sea is day one of the three-day Irish Grand National Festival at Fairyhouse.
Newbury
The 1m 4f John Porter Stakes (1:50) gets the Newbury card underway. Stowell looked a useful stayer in the making when coming from behind to finish a 2 ¾ length 3rd of 13 to Kemari in last season’s Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot. He ran poorly when last of 5 to Yibir in a Group 3 at Newmarket the following month and hasn’t been seen since. Lightly raced for his age, just the four career starts, the 4-year-old remains with the potential to do better this season.
The first of the two Guineas Trials on the card. The Group 3 Fred Darling Stakes (2:25) has attracted a field of 12. The ante post betting is headed by the Charlie Appleby trained Wild Beauty. The 3-year-old won a Grade 1 at Woodbine last season before finishing a 3 ½ length 5th of 9 to Inspiral in the Group 1 Fillies Mile at Newmarket, just ¾ length behind Nell Gwyn winner Cachet. The drying ground will suit and she has the best juvenile form on offer. Her biggest rival should be Jumbly. The filly comfortably won the Listed Radley Stakes over C&D on her final juvenile start. The ground was soft last time but if she doesn’t need that sort of ground, she looks worth her place back in Pattern company.
Angel Bleu looks likely to go off a warm favourite for the Group 3 Greenham Stakes (3:00) the second of today’s Guineas Trials. The son of Dark Angel ended last season in fantastic form winning a Group 2 at Goodwood before going to success in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp and the Group 1 Criterium International at Saint-Cloud. All three of those wins came on soft ground though and he’s likely to be going for the French 2,000 Guineas rather than the English one. Perfect Power was another who finished last season off in excellent form winning the Group 1 Prix Morny at Deauville before going to success in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket. First try at 7f but the colt should stay. Of more concern would be today’s small field and lack of pace. He’s been seen at his best coming off a strong pace as shown in the Middle Park. The lack of pace and the possibility of a tactical race could suit Lusail. The Richard Hannon trained colt won a Group 2 at Newmarket’s July Meeting before going onto win the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes at York. He ended last season with a disappointing effort when last of four at Doncaster on good to soft but he’s surely better than his last time effort and drying ground will suit. Only has 2lb to find with Angel Bleu & Perfect Power on Official Ratings (OR)
Seventeen are set to go to post for the big betting race of the day the Class 2 Highclere Thoroughbred Racing 30th Anniversary Spring Cup Handicap (3:35). The second (Saleymm), third (Rogue Bear) fourth (Irish Admiral) and seventh (Modern News)in the Lincoln all reoppose. Of that group the one I like is Rogue Bear. The 4-year-old wasn’t well way at Doncaster but still best of those coming from behind in a race which the leaders didn’t come back to their rivals. He’s been well found in the betting and is a winnable mark but the quickening ground is a concern. Orbaan is on a long losing run but is nicely treated on the best of his form. He will be sharper for his recent return to action at Redcar. He had no chance from his high draw that day and is the sort that needs a very strongly run race and all the cards to fall right. Ryan Moore has been booked for Migration who won twice last season over 1m 2f at Goodwood and York. The drop back to a mile shouldn’t be an inconvenience for his seasonal return although I don’t think he would want the ground to be quicker than good.
Musselburgh
Marshall Dan finished a ¾ length 2nd of 11 in the Betway Musselburgh Silver Arrow Handicap (2:04). That run came off 112-day absence and he’s back from a similar absence today. The 7-year-old can race off 2lb lower this timer around which gives him a good chance of going one better. However, he does have a wide draw in stall 10 to overcome. If he can get across to take up a prominent position from his stall, he will be tough to pass. Gioia Cieca is better drawn in stall five. He won over C&D last summer (good to firm) and put in a career best effort on RPR’s when a ¼ length 2nd off 11 to Modern News at Doncaster. The 4-year-old had only had seven career starts and could be capable of more improvement this season but he may want quicker ground than seems likely today.
The Betway Holyrood Handicap (2:39) looks a tricky 5f sprint. Last year’s runner-up Zarzyni has occupied the runner-up spot on his three starts on the all-weather in 2022. He’s got race fitness on his side and gets the first time cheekpieces today but stall one doesn’t appeal. Dakota Gold has a touch of back class. No wins last season in what a largely disappointing campaign but that means the handicapper has given the 9-year-old a chance. He’s tended to need his first start in recent seasons but if he’s ready to roll he’s got a good chance from his draw in 11. Makanah a useful sprinter on his day put in his best performance last season when a short head 2nd of 6 over C&D in a Class 2 handicap. He didn’t get the clearest of run 1f out that day, if he had he would probably have won. He can race off 2lb lower now and did win first time up in 2019 & 2020.
With £100,000 in guaranteed prize money the Betway Queen’s Cup (Heritage Handicap) (3:14) is the most valuable flat race of the season at Musselburgh. The betting is headed by the Emmet Mullins trained Zero Ten. The trainer who landed last week’s Grand National is pot hunting again here. Zero Ten. The 9-year-old a multiple winner over hurdles and fences won a Galway maiden last summer on the flat before finish runner-up at Tramore on his handicap debut. Was thought good enough and wasn’t disgraced when a 6 ¾ lengths fifth of 12 in the Group 1 Prix Royal-Oak at Longchamp last time. He won first time up last season and Benoit de la Sayette takes off a handy 7lb of the top weight back. HMS President proved he stayed 1m 6f when a 1 ¾ length 2nd of 10 at Doncaster last September. He was well below his best on his final two starts of last season on ground that was probably too soft for him. Not the easiest to win with 1-17 on turf but starts the new season on a competitive mark. Themaxwecan won this race last season and can race off the same mark here. Provided the going is no worse than good he’s got a great chance of back-to-back wins in this valuable contest. Ian Williams had last year’s runner-up and saddles two in Enemy and Haliphon. The first named looks the pick of his pair. The 5-year-old a winner when trained in France had two runs for his new yard in Meydan earlier this year, finishing a 6 ¼ length 4th of 15 in a Group 3 over today’s trip. Given that was the 5-year-old’s first run beyond 1m 2f it was a good staying performance. Very much unexposed as a stayer and looks set for a big run.
Fairyhouse
Day one of Fairyhouse’s Grand National Meeting and two big field handicaps look the most interesting races on a seven-race card.
Seventeen have been declared I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Novice Handicap Hurdle Series Final (Grade B) (4:15). Nell’s Well had Bugs Moran 1 ¾ length back in third when winning a 3m handicap hurdle at Cork last month. Bugs Moran gets a 4lb pull in the weights. He’s totally unexposed over the distance looked well suited by the step up to 3m last time. Nell’s Well has had a tremendous season winning three times and has improved on each of her last three starts since stepping up to 3m. I fancy the improving mare to confirm form with Bugs Moran with Rachel Blackmore an eyecatching jockey booking for the 8-year-old. Willie Mullins saddled last year’s winner and has a couple of live contenders in Tempo Chapter Two, a winner of a novice hurdle here in February (2m). He never got competitive in the County Hurdle last time but is interesting upped markedly in trip and is the pick of Paul Townend. Belle Metal is the other Mullins runner to note. The mare has only had three starts over hurdles and got off the mark for the first time in a Navan novice hurdle (2m) last month. Like her stablemate she’s markedly up in distance but she shapes like a stayer and there is plenty of stamina on the dam’s side. Looks capable of further improvement with racing and is on competitive mark for her handicap debut.
The RYBO Handicap Hurdle (Grade A) (4:50) has over €100,000 in guaranteed prize money with €59,000 on offer to the winner. Plenty in with a chance in this 2m handicap hurdle which seems likely to be run at strong pace. Willie Mullins has saddled the winner of the race five times since 2012 and he has no less than seven of the 19 runners. Farout the choice of Paul Townend wasn’t disgraced when an 11-length 9th of 26 in the County Hurdle. The forecast strong pace will suit the holdup performer and he shouldn’t be far away. The other two Mullins runners that catch the eye are Tax For Max and La Prima Donna. Tax For Max has plenty of ability but needs to settle better than he has been doing, He was a 2 ¾ length runner-up to Farout in a Galway novice hurdle last summer and gets 6lb from his stablemate. Off for 8 months before falling at the last, beaten at the time, in the County Hurdle last time. Should be sharper today and the forecast pace could help him settle better. La Prima Donna is bred to be win races. The mare shaped with promise on her first run for Willie Mullins when 2nd of 13 at Clonmel two starts back. Looked the likeliest winner when falling two out at Limerick last time. Open to further improvement but her relative inexperience is a concern in a race like this. Jesse Evans a winner of a Killarney handicap hurdle last May was a good 2 ½ length 4th of 20, off today’s mark in last year’s Galway Hurdle. The 6-year-old likely needed the run, off for four months, when down the field in the County Hurdle last time. He goes well in big field handicaps and can’t be discounted off his present mark. Nodoubtaboutthat was in good form last spring/summer and progressed to beat 19 rivals in mares only handicap hurdle at the Galway Festival. She has a 195-day absence to overcome but she went close over C&D at this meeting last year off a 117-day lay off so can run well fresh. Double bumper winner Glan got off the mark at her second attempt over hurdles when a winning a 2m 2f novice hurdle here on October. The mare put in a personal best on her handicap debut when finishing a neck 2nd of 18 over C&D two starts back. Looked set for another big run and was still going well two out before finishing a 14-length 5th of 15 to Party Central in mares handicap at Leopardstown last time. The 7-year-old seems to go well on a sound surface and when she gets it can win a race like this.
Betting Advice:
I’m giving the Group 3’s a miss from a value perspective at Newbury and concentrating on today’s handicaps of which there are plenty.
Newbury
3:35 – 1pt each way – Orbaan – 25/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Musselburgh
2:04 – 1pt win – Marshall Dan – 9/1 @ Bet365
2:39 – 1pt win – Dakota Gold – 15/2 @ Bet365
3:14 – 1pt win – Enemy – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
Fairyhouse
4:15 – 1pt win – Nell’s Well – 7/1 @ Bet365
4:50 – 1pt win – Glan – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Nodoubtaboutthat – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John