Hi all,
Cheltenham’s Trial’s Day has been abandoned which wasn’t the biggest of ever surprise. The track had more rain than expected and once that happened there was no chance that the meeting would take place. Even if they had raced, they would have to have taken three fences and probably one hurdle so the chase races would have been a bit of a farce.
That’s the second meeting that Cheltenham has lost this year. At least the ground for the Festival should be pretty good.
There should be problem with Doncaster’s Sky Bet Chase day although the going will be bordering heavy if there is more rain before post time.
ITV have revised their offering now that Cheltenham is off. They were due to cover just three races from Doncaster but they have added the Lightning Novices’ Chase to their broadcast plans as well as three races from Lingfield’s all weather card.
I am concentrating on the Doncaster action today.
Shishkin bids for a hat trick of wins over fences in the Grade 2 Lightning Novices’ Chase (1:30) and he will be long odds on to beat his four rivals. The Lightning Novices’ Chase is one of three Grade 2 races on the Doncaster in addition to the big betting race of the weekend the Sky Bet Handicap Chase (3:15) with thirteen declared to run.
Doncaster
2:05 – Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Yorkshire Rose Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m ½ f
The Nicky Henderson trained mare Floressa heads the ante post betting. A winner at Newbury two starts back on good ground before finishing 4th of 5th in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. Clear form chance but I’m not sure she wants the ground too soft.
Henderson has another interesting runner in Marie’s Rock. Looked a decent prospect when winning her first two starts over hurdles last season. Sent off the 2/1 favourite for the Newbury race won by Floressa but was far to keen and finished a well beaten 7th of 9. The 6-year-old get’s the first-time hood/tongue tie combination and needs them to have a big effect. If they do I think she can put her career back on track and win this. Both hurdle wins came on soft so there shouldn’t be any issue with underfoot conditions.
Miranda is next in the betting and has won on soft in the past and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Nicholls mare was sent off favourite.
Irish Roe finished runner-up to Lady Buttons in this race last year. Twice a course winner and her form figures over C&D are 112222. She has won on soft once in the past but the 10-year-old’s best form has come on a sounder surface and can’t be totally dismissed.
2:40 – Albert Bartlett River Don Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) – 3m ½ f
A big field of thirteen novice hurdlers are set to meet the starter for this year’s renewal. The bookies are 5/1 the field at the time of writing which shows it’s an open looking race and looking at RPR’s just 5lb separates the top eight runners which backs that up. Given the conditions It could turn out to be a real war of attrition.
Emir Sacree formerly trained in France returned from a 635-day layoff when making all to win an Ascot on his first start for Nicky Henderson. The 7-year-old is up in trip here but should stay and certainly relished the soft ground at Ascot. Trainer has saddled the winner of this race twice since 2015.
Pats Fancy won a Ffos Las maiden on his hurdle debut and then went on to finish 2nd of 8 in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham last month. Coped well with heavy ground at Ffos Las and showed he stays 3m last time.
Ask A Honey Bee finished one place and 1 ½ lengths behind Pats Fancy at Cheltenham. He looks a shade exposed but is consistent and should run his race. Yard among the winners and had the runner-up last year.
Ashtown Lad seemed to relish testing round and a stamina test when winning an extended 2m 7f Uttoxeter handicap hurdle two starts back. Disappointed behind Pats Fancy & Ask A Honey Bee at Cheltenham last time when 6/4 favourite. Didn’t seem totally at home over Cheltenham’s undulations that day and could do better on this more galloping track.
Like Henderson, Ben Pauling has won this race twice since 2016. He saddles The Cob improved to win his first two starts on soft & heavy ground. The 7-year-old seemed to have his limitations exposed when only 3rd of 5 at Newbury last time but the ground was good that day and if the 7-year-old can resume progress returned to mor testing ground he would have each way claims.
Verdict: Ashtown Lad is surely better than he was able to show at Cheltenham and could reverse placings with Pats Fancy and Ask A Honey Bee. At the prices though I’m going with Emir Sacree.
1pt win – Emir Sacree – 6/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
3:15 – Sky Bet Handicap Chase (Listed Race) – 3m
In my Thursday Daily Punt race preview. I said if the main fancies stand their ground then we’re in for a good race and apart from one they all have done so.
Cap Du Nord runner-up to Royale Pagaille, on just his second start at 3m, last time heads the market. Prior to that he had beaten Canelo at Newbury.
Canelo boosted the form of Cap Du Nord’s Newbury win when winning the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby on Boxing Day. Like the favourite he’s progressive and trainer Alan King won this race in 2016 & 2017.
One For The Team is one of the least experienced in the field having just had the three starts over fences. Ran Next Destination to 1 ¼ lengths in a Grade 2 at Newbury on his second start over the larger obstacles. Only 5th of 7 in a Grade 1 at Kempton on Boxing Day but will appreciate Doncaster’s more galloping track. Looks on a handy mark for his handicap chase debut.
Musical Slave seemed to show a liking for 3m and heavy ground when finishing runner-up to Sams Adventure at Uttoxeter in March. Jumping was rusty on this seasonal return at Newbury on his seasonal reappearance so did well to finish as close as he did when 5th of 10 on good ground.
Aye Right finished third in the Charlie Hall Chase and runner-up in the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury. Had a recent spin in a “jumpers” bumper at Newcastle and so should be spot on fitness wise for this.
Boldmere looked good when winning over C&D handicap here in December 2019 and looked set to win the Grade 2 Towton Novices’ Chase at Wetherby when falling at the last on his next start. Not at the level of that form this season and disappointed when beaten favourite (2/1) here last month. Big chance if bouncing back to form here.
Give Me A Copper finished two places in front of Boldmere here last time. Has tended to be at his best when fresh and probably won’t want the ground to soft either.
The Butcher Said was quietly fancied for the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle on his handicap debut over fences. Held up at the rear, he was starting to make some headway when making a mistake five out and that ended any chance he had. Trainer Ollle Murphy’s horses are going better now although the 8-year-old may not want the ground to soft.
Verdict: Cap Du Nord is clearly the one to beat and I could easily be missing out on the obvious one here. At the prices I just want to take him on though. At the prices I’m happy to give Boldmere one final chance. The J P McManus pair of Canelo and Musical Slave should go well. As should Aye Right, who deserves to land a good pot like this although he may prefer slightly better ground
1pt each way – Boldmere – 18/1 @ William Hill (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
1pt win – Canelo – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:50 – Not on ITV but I like the claims of Financial Outcome in this 3m handicap chase. The Rebecca Curtis trained 8-year-old improved to win over 3m 2f here, off 7lb lower 12 months ago. Probably needed the run after a recent wind-op when an encouraging 3rd of 10 at Bangor 16-days ago. He’s on a competitive mark if returning to last season’s best form from which came on slow ground. Rebecca Curtis saddled the winner of this race in 2015.
2pts win – Financial Outcome – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John