Hi all,
I fancy so many today it’s scary, especially given my present run of form. Anyway, you will be relieved to know I would be putting up nearly 20 selections.
It’s Day 2 of Future Champions Weekend at Newmarket and with it the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes. Another very tricky Juvenile race like yesterday’s Fillies Mile. There’s also the 34 runner Cesarewitch Handicap to get stuck into. A race where you could back five and still not get one into the places. Add in some big field York handicaps and you can see why it will be either a very good day or a bit of a nightmare punting wise.
Newmarket
2:55 – Darley Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) – 7f
Fourteen juvenile colts have been declared for this year’s renewal which kind of indicates it’s an open race where no one fears anyone else add in soft ground and you have what looks a very tricky puzzle.
Despite being by Wootton Bassett, I want to take on the unbeaten Chindit as being held up wasn’t the place to be yesterday. Ante post favourite Thunder Moon showed a good turn of foot to win the Group 1 National Stakes last month but connections are going to be working the course this morning to see if he will run due to the soft ground.
Alkumait looked a speedy colt when winning the Mill Reef Stakes last time but I’m not sure he will appreciate 7f on soft ground. The well regarded Fivethousandtoone was sent off the 5/2 favourite before finishing runner up in the Mill Reef. Today’s extra furlong will bring out more improvement in the Frankel colt and he did seem to handle soft ground on racecourse debut at Windsor. I expect him to go well and can reverse placings with Alkumait here.
Aidan O’Brien saddles Wembley & St Mark’s Basilica who were second & third behind Thunder Moon in the National Stakes. There doesn’t look much between the pair. Wembley should go on the ground as he won a Roscommon maiden on heavy. On breeding he looks more like a future 3-year-old middle distance horse to me and he came from behind in the National Stakes. St Mark’s Basilica looks the more speedily bred of the pair. He won a Curragh maiden on soft and His sire Siyouni won on very soft. The ground at the Curragh may have been a shade to quick for him in the National Stakes. He can’t afford to give ground away at the start but if he gets off on level terms, he’s a lively contender despite Ryan Moore opting for his stablemate. I’m not sure why he’s drifting in the betting overnight but he’s becoming a bit of value.
Cadillac is dropping back from a mile after winning a Group 2 at Leopardstown last time. He seemed to like the good ground that day although I think it was more inexperience than soft ground that cost when runner-up on soft ground at the Curragh two starts back. His stamina could well come into play here and he’s a live one.
Verdict: I want to take on the front two in the betting. St Mark’s Basilica is a drifter in the betting but should go well and could prove best of the Aidan O’Brien pair. Cadillac is an each- way contender as is Fivethousandtoone who can improve for the step up to 7f.
1pt each way – Cadillac – 17/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
0.5pts each way – St Mark’s Basilica – 22/1 @Bet365 (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
3:35 – Together For Racing International Cesarewitch Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 2m 2f
Coltrane won the Melrose Handicap over 1m 6f (good to soft) by 4 lengths on his last start. The handicapper has put him up 11lb for that easy win but he’s a progressive 3-year-old who should relish 2m in time although 2m 2f on soft ground at this stage of his career maybe asking too much of him. I think he remains well handicapped horse but he will to be to overcome his wide draw.
Lynwood Gold, trained by Jessica Harrington has fared a bit better on the draw front (22). He’s been running well in big field handicaps in Ireland this summer and will handle the soft ground. Just his second start beyond two miles on the flat and he didn’t seem to improve for it when 3rd of 18 at the Curragh back in June. Had a recent spin over hurdles as a prep for this and he’s high on the shortlist.
Rock Eagle has only had three starts since winning the Old Rowley Cup here two years ago. On a mark he can win off but he’s yet to race beyond 1m 6f and will be having his first start on ground worse than good. It’s also slightly off putting that Harry Bentley has opted for stablemate Future Investment. He’s unexposed as a stayer and won at Chester over 2m two starts back. Effective on soft ground but maybe he’s a more a Chester Cup contender.
Summer Moon was third in this race 12 months ago. He’s 9lb higher this time around but showed how well suited by a stamina test he is when beating 16 rivals at York over 2m at the Ebor Festival, off 4lb lower. Tough task under top weight but has a handy draw in stall 5 and is a guaranteed stayer.
Verdict: Despite his wide draw I must have the improving Coltrane on side. Last year’s third Summer Moon can get in to the money again and Lynwood Gold shouldn’t be far away if his stamina holds out.
1pt win – Coltrane – 9/1 @ Bet365
1pt each way – Summer Moon – 28/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds) – Sky Bet are paying 8 places.
York
1:30 – Coral “Racing Super Series” Nursery Handicap (Class 2) – 1m
Heights Of Abraham a winner on soft ground at Musselburgh two starts back improved again when runner-up on his nursery debut at Ayr 21-days ago. The step up to a mile suited the colt and although he’s been nudged up 2lb for his Ayr he remains on a winnable looking mark.
1pt each way – Heights Of Abraham – 12/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
2:35 – Coral Beaten By A Length Free Bet Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2 ½ f
The improving Ilaraab bids for the five timer. He handles soft ground and a 5lb rise for his last win at Newbury looks lenient. The third home that day Kingbrook won the Old Rowley Cup yesterday so the form looks rock solid. Plenty in the colts favour then although the slight negative is that none of the last 22 winners of that Newbury handicap went on to win their next start.
Crystal Pegasus is another improver who bids for the hat trick after wins at Bath & Yarmouth. This is a better race and he’s yet to race on soft (good to soft winner). That said he’s going the right way and shouldn’t be far away.
Johnny Drama has finished runner-up on both his run over C&D including this race 12 months ago. Two poor runs in earlier in the season and he returns for the first time since a wind-op. Looks on a good mark on the best of last year’s form and has form on soft ground. If the wind-op has the desired effect the 5-year-old can go close but is up against some improving 3-year-olds.
Verdict: Johnny Drama like it here and is nicely treated on his best form but the improving 3-year-old’s Ilaraab & Crystal Pegasus look the more solid win contenders.
3:10 – Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 6f
Mighty Spirit showed much improved form when making all to win Ayr’s Silver Cup three weeks ago. He’s been raised 10lb for that success but could be up to defying his new mark if as effective on soft ground. Stablemate Bielsa did well from a poor draw when 9th of 24 in the Ayr Gold Cup on the same day. He’s well suited to soft ground. After last year’s efforts this season has been poor but his last run offered some hope. Irish raider Laugh A Minute put up his best performance of the season when coming from off the pace to finish 4th of 22 in a valuable sprint handicap at the Curragh last month and has each way claims in a wide-open sprint handicap.
Verdict: Mighty Spirit could take some catching if in the same form as last time. The disappointing Bielsa has a race like this in him off his present mark and Laugh A Minute can’t be ruled out if backing up his recent Curragh run.
1pt each way – Bielsa – 12/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
1pt each way – Laugh A Minute – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Cheers
John