Hi all,
Not the best of starts to Newbury’s two-day meeting for me. I’m looking forward to a much better day on Saturday.
ITV are covering six races from Newbury and Newcastle. The feature race at Newbury is the Ladbroke Trophy which is one the best handicap chases of the whole season
At Newcastle the highlight is the return of Champion Hurdle heroine Epatante in the Grade 1 Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle.
The first race that interest’s is at Newbury but isn’t on ITV.
Newbury
1:15 – Sir Peter O’Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 6 ½ f
Kapcorse won this race on soft ground two years ago off 10lb lower. He only had two starts after that both hurdles winning one of them. Just the three starts over fences so he’s unexposed in the sphere. First start since a wind-op and has 644-day absence to overcome if he’s to win this race again.
Tom George had a winner here yesterday and he could have another winner here with Doctor Dex. The 7-year-old is having his first start since pulling up at Kempton on soft ground in December. Another one who’s unexposed over fences, just three starts winning on his seasonal return and chase debut last November. Can go fresh, goes well on the going, and the trainer won this in 2016.
Cap Du Nord finished fifth in the race 12 months ago and is just 1lb above his last winning mark. Fine on the ground and shaped with promise when 4th of 10 at Wincanton three weeks ago on his first run since February.
Court Master has been busier than most this autumn and will be having his fourth start of the season. Looks to have improved over the summer winning at Warwick and finishing runner-up at Market Rasen. Only beaten 2 lengths when 4th of 11 behind Morning Vicar. Goes well on a sound surface and won around here last season over an extended 2m 7f.
Verdict: Kapcorse and Cap Du Nord will have their supporters butI’m going withCourt Master and Doctor Dex.
1pt win – Doctor Dex – 12/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Court Master – 8/1 @ Bet365
1:50 – Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m 4f
Tea Clipper made it 4-5 over hurdles when winning the valuable Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle at Chepstow. Up 7lb for that win but the 5-year-old may not have reached his class ceiling just yet. Needs top of the ground and this trip is ideal. Will be tough to beat.
Howling Milan won a good ground novice hurdle here over 2m ½ f back in January 2019. Was in the process of putting up a career best effort, a couple of lengths ahead, and going like the winner when falling at the last over C&D last December. Well beaten on two starts over fences this season and the 6-year-old is more interesting back in a handicap hurdle. Gets the first time cheekpieces and is handicapped to go close.
Verdict: It’s hard to look beyond likely favourite Tea Clipper. However, at the prices Howling Milan looks worth an each-way punt.
1pt each way – Howling Milan – 14/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places ¼ odds)
2:25 – Ladbrokes Committed To Safer Gambling Intermediate Hurdle (Listed Race) (A Limited Handicap) – 2m ½ f
Marie’s Rock made it 3-3 when winning a Listed Mares Hurdle at Taunton last December. The 5-year-old is having her first since that win and her first since a wind-op. Highly regarded and an entry in today’s Grade 1 Fighting Fifth at Newcastle. Remains capable of much better over hurdles and could be a Grade 1 hurdler running in a handicap. Trainer Nicky Henderson won this with Epatante last year and bids for his 4th win in the race since 2010.
The favourite does face some useful rivals though. Milkwood won at Ffos Las on his seasonal return and put in a career best effort back at the same venue when 4th of 12 in a competitive Welsh Champion Hurdle. Same mark and should be competitive.
Botox Has bids for the hat trick after two wins at Cheltenham. The last of those wins came on his seasonal return 35-days ago. Handicap hurdle debut here and raised 8lb for his last win. Won on good ground last time so shouldn’t have problems with the ground.
Thyme White looked a much-improved hurdler when winning at Chepstow last month. The handicapper has raised him 11lb for that success which makes life harder but he’s going the right way and likes good ground.
Sebastopol is another who’s better on a sound surface. Steady improvement on his three starts last season winning at Wincanton & Musselburgh. First run since the latter of those wins in February but has winning form fresh. Another going the right way and should go well but might be better over further than 2m this season and could find one or two more speedy.
Verdict: As with the previous handicap hurdle we have another strong favourite in Marie’s Rock who could prove to be a Grade 1 mare. That said it looks a strong race and at her price I can let her win. Botax Has comes into the race on the back of a Cheltenham win and makes his handicap debut here. Milkwood and Thyme White have recent solid handicap hurdle form. Sebastopol was an improving handicap hurdler last season, goes well fresh and has the ground in his favour.
1pt win – Sebastopol – 11/1 @ Bet365
3:00 – Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) – 3m 2f
There isn’t a Denman or Bobs Worth in the field but it’s open looking renewal.
Aye Right, third to Cyrname in the Charlie Hall Chase has been vying for ante post favouritism with Cheltenham Festival Handicap Chase winner and last year’s runner-up The Conditional. A former useful staying handicap hurdler he’s already a better chaser than a hurdler and he jump’s and gallops. Looks on a good mark, just 4lb higher than for his Charlie Hall run.
The Conditional runner-up last year and then improved to win the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Festival in March. Has been raised 8lb for his Cheltenham win so needs to have improved again over the summer.
Vinndication, trained by Kim Bailey, finished runner up in the Charlie Hall. He’s got a touch of class but it won’t be easy off 11-11 for him. Should stay 3m 2f but maybe prefers more ease in the ground.
Kildisart was runner-up to The Conditional at Cheltenham and is weighted to finish ahead of that one on Saturday. He’s had a good prep over hurdles at Wetherby and will be suited by the going. Closely weighted with the Conditional & Vinndication on their running in the Ultima.
Potterman has been doing well over the summer and was beaten just a short head in a driving finish in the Badger Beers Trophy at Wincanton. He can race of the same mark here and is 5lb well in. But can he replicate that form on good to soft. All the 7-year-old’s best performances have come on genuinely good ground.
Copperhead has likely been laid out for the race by trainer Colin Tizzard. Improved to win three of his first four starts over fences including a C&D handicap before going to win the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase at Ascot. Was strongly fancied for the RSA Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham on the back of his Ascot win but was a beaten horse when falling at the last. Pulled up over hurdles at Wetherby on his return to action.
Mister Malarky was a good 6th in this race 12 months ago. He’s another well suited to decent ground as he showed when winning at Kempton (good to soft) back in February off 3lb lower. Gets the first-time blinkers here and maybe better over 3m.
Secret Investor beat Potterman by 7 lengths at Chepstow on his seasonal return last month. The better the ground the better his chance and his last five form figures on good are 41121. Slight question mark about his stamina for 3m 2f apart from that has a good chance on this going.
Cloth Cap goes well on good ground and lacks little in terms of stamina was an excellent 3rd of 23 in the 2019 Scottish Grand National on just his fourth start over fences. Wasn’t disgraced on his four starts last season all on soft ground. A good third behind Frodon on good ground at Cheltenham on his seasonal return. The 8-year-old sneaks in at the bottom of the weights and is interesting in the first time cheekpieces.
Verdict: Aye Right looks the most interesting of those at the front head of the market and should be favourite but he’s drifted out to a double figure price. The Conditional will probably prefer softer ground as might Copperhead. Kildisart had a nice prep for this over hurdles and the drying ground has come in time for him. Secret Investor will like the ground and if he stays the 3m 2f has a good chance. Cloth Cap has a decent handicap pot in him and gets the first time cheekpieces.
1pt win – Aye Right – 10/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
1pt win – Cloth Cap – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:35 – Watch Racing Free Online At Ladbrokes Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m ½ f
Just the eight go to post for this handicap chase that concludes the card but it’s still looks a competitive race.
Ibleo trained by Venetia Williams returned from 244-day absence to almost beat the race fit Amoola Gold at Ascot 28-days ago. Up 5lb but has just had the four starts over fences and looks capable of winning a nice pot in the coming weeks. Best form has come on soft or heavy but if he’s as effective on a sound surface is the one to beat.
Moonlighter won over C&D in January and was only beaten a neck by Greaneteen in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter on his seasonal reappearance. Up 5lb for that effort but it’s arguably the best form on offer. Ground versatile and could be hard to pass if getting an uncontested lead.
Zanza won four over hurdles including two here at today’s distance. Decent efforts in two hot novice chases this season. Handicap chase debut here and should be ok on the ground. Has the size and scope to win races over fences that’s for sure.
The Russian Doyen won a novices’ handicap chase over C&D in January 2019. Lightly raced since finishing 4th of 20 at the 2019 Cheltenham Festival. Travelled well for a long way in the Paddy Power at Cheltenham but made a bad mistake four out which seemed to knock the stuffing out of him and was pulled up before two out. Not ruled out and interesting dropped back in trip in the first-time blinkers.
Verdict: There must be a doubt about Ibleo’s participation on this ground. If he runs, I prefer the claims of previous C&D winner Moonlighter who was an excellent second to Greaneteen. The first-time blinkers could see The Russian Doyen put in a much better performance.
1pt win – Moonlighter – 7/2 @ William Hill
Newcastle
3:15 – Betfair Exchange Rehearsal Handicap Chase (Listed Race) – 2m 7 ½ f
Whatmore travelled like a well handicapped horse when putting up a career best effort to finish runner-up to Regal Encore at Ascot on his seasonal return. Up 4lb and 1-7 over fences but expected to go close on going which he’s won three times on.
Pym made it 3-6 over fenceswhen beating If The Cap Fits at Sandown on his reappearance. That was a welcome return to form after pulling up on his last two starts last season at Ascot and Cheltenham, albeit those runs came in Graded company. Needs to improve on his handicap debut but going & distance fine for the 7-year-old. Might be tough to pass if he gets a uncontested lead. Trainer Nicky Henderson is 1-1 in the race.
Henderson also saddles Brave Eagle. Looked a useful staying handicap chaser two seasons back on good ground. Two poor runs in the Ladbrokes Trophy and at the Festival. Better could have been expected at Chepstow on his seasonal reappearance on quick ground but he never jumped or travelled. Just 1lb above his last winning mark and if the first-time blinkers have the desired effect has a chance.
The Butcher Said has been well backed this week. Won two of his first three starts in novice company on good ground. Didn’t jump as well on soft when 3rd of 5 behind The Big Breakaway at Cheltenham. Well suited by a sound surface and mark of 139 looks more than workable for his handicap chase debut but he needs to jump better than he did last time.
Cool Mix goes on good ground and looks worth a try at 3m. A winner at Wetherby (2m 4f) two starts back and then third behind Modus at Aintree. Probably remains on competitive mark, if he stays.
Takingrisks won this 12 months ago, off 4lb lower.Needed every yard of the distance to get up home on the line. It was soft ground last year and he did win the 2019 Scottish Grand National on good ground. Can’t rule out another win in the race but could find this too sharp a test on good ground these days.
Verdict: Takingrisks won this last year on heavy and although he’s very effective on good ground this looks too sharp a test. The Butcher Said needs to jump better than he did last time but is on a good mark. Pym and Whatmore head the market and are big contenders with a slight preference for the latter.
1pt win – Whatmore – 3/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Fairyhouse
The first of two good days racing at Fairyhouse and there’s a competitive 2m ½f handicap chase at 12:30.
12:30 – EasyFix Equine Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 2m ½ f
Kildorrey doesn’t win very often. Looked set for the runner-up spot in this 12 months ago. Now 2lb lower and a useful 5lb conditional booked. Nice run when 3rd of 6 in a Grade 2 at Navan 20-days ago.
Gordon Elliott has won this race for the last two years. He saddles three of the 11 runners. The best of his three looks to be Timoteo. Respectable first start for the trainer when 5th of 13 at Down Royal 29-days ago. Needs to improve on that performance but has only had five starts over fences so more improvement could be forthcoming.
Snugsborough Hall a useful novice chaser two seasons back winning a good handicap chase at the Punchestown Festival. Just two starts last season and was well fancied (6/1) for a valuable handicap chase at the Dublin Racing Festival in February. Pulled up and was found to have burst a blood vessel. Nice prep over hurdles for this last month on his return. Likely on a winnable mark given the market support he received at Leopardstown.
Impact Factor finished runner-up to Snugsborough Hall at Punchestown. A previous C&D winner this is first run for 576-days. Handicapped to finish closer to that one at the revised weights. Can go close if ready to roll first time up.
Paloma Blue comes into the race fitter than most has already three starts since July, winning at Wexford two starts back. Well behind Easy Game & The Storyteller in a Grade 2 at Gowran Park 56-days ago. Drop back to 2m is a positive as would less testing ground. Tends to travel strongly in 2m handicap chases but doesn’t often find much off the bridle. Top weight here but classy at his best and interesting in first-time cheekpieces.
Verdict: Timoteo will prefer the better ground and looks to have a good chance of giving Gordon Elliott a hat trick of wins in the race. Paloma Blue has a touch of class and should run well if the ground isn’t too testing. . Kildorrey doesn’t win very often but can win a race like this. Impact Factor looks on a decent mark, if fit enough first time and looks worth a play.
1pt win – Impact Factor – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John