Hi all,
It’s the first English Classic of the 2021 flat season at Newmarket on Saturday and on Sunday it’s the first fillies’ classic.
The openness of the 2,000 Guineas means fifteen colts are set to meet the starter. The good to firm ground means only one other race on Newmarket’s eight race card has a double figure field the Suffolk Stakes (1:50).
Besides Newmarket, it’s the concluding day of the Punchestown Festival and there are competitive cards at both Goodwood & Thirsk.
I have had a look at five of the six races on ITV this afternoon.
Newmarket
1:50 – “My Oddsboost” On Betfair Suffolk Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 1f
Bell Rock goes really well on the Rowley Course. The 5-year-old won here over a mile first time up last season and finished third in the Cambridgshire. William Carver takes off 5lb and that could enable the gelding to make it 3-4 on his first start of the season.
Bright Melody is 5lb higher than when winning handicap over today’s distance at Meydan last time. Needs to improve again to win again but is going the right way.
Maydanny hails from the inform Mark Johnston yard but has to prove he can win off a career high mark of 100. Prominent racers do well here though and the he’s suited to quick ground.
Mascat is a consistent handicapper and was back to form when a ¾-length 2nd of 10 to Zabeel Champion at Ripon 16-days ago.
Starcat started last season in the 2,000 Guineas but failed to win on five subsequent starts in handicap company. Career best effort when a 3 ¾ length 4th of 14 at Doncaster (1m 2f) last September. The 4-year-old has been gelded since he last run and could better as a 4-year-old.
1pt win – Starcat – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:25 – Palace House Stakes (Group 3) – 5f
Judicial has finished runner-up twice in this race including last season. He might be a 9-year-old but he showed last season when winning a Chester Listed race that he was better than ever.
Garrus won a 5f Listed race as a 3-year-old. Missed all of last season but has returned in great form winning at Wolverhampton in March and then finishing runner-up to one of today’s rivals Come From The Dark in a Newbury handicap 15-days ago. Get’s 4lb, for a neck defeat, from that one today and there shouldn’t be much between the pair again. Come From The Dark is an improving sprinter and that improvement may not have levelled out. Needs a strong pace to come off be at his best.
3:00 – Betfair Exchange Jockey Club Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 2f
An intriguing race even though there are only five runners. William Haggas saddles two of them Al Zaraqaan & Pablo Escobarr. The latter will like the quick ground but the former is the more interesting of the pair. Al Zaraqaan improved again when landing the four timer at Kempton 35-days ago. Last three of those wins have come on the all-weather but he did win at Doncaster (good to firm) last summer. Up from handicap company today but open to more improvement for a return to 1m 4f.
Pyledriver was one of the stories of last season winning the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot and Great Voltigeur Stakes at York and probably didn’t stay when third in the St Leger. Clear top on official ratings and could do even better as a 4-year-old.
Mark Johnston saddles the remaining two runners Sir Ron Priestley & Thunderous. The first named was a big improver two seasons back and finished runner-up in that season’s St Leger. Missed all last year but returned to win a 1m 6f Listed race at Nottingham last month. The only front runner in the lineup and likely to get to an uncontested lead. Thunderous was very disappointing on his seasonal return Gordon Richards Stakes at Sandown last Friday. Quick turnaround for last years Dante Stakes winner but he wouldn’t be the first of the yard’s runners to bounce back from a poor run.
3:40 – Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
A very open looking renewal of the first colt’s classic. Aidan O’Brien saddles three in Wembley, Battleground & Van Gogh. Wembley finished runner-up in last year’s Dewhurst Stakes and was the best of these as juvenile. Ryan Moore takes the ride. Van Gogh won a Group 1 at Saint-Cloud (heavy) on his final start last season. Might need 1m 2f to be seen at his best but a strong pace should see him being competitive. Battleground 2-4 as a juvenile and finished runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf on his final start. Open to more improvement as 3-year-old.
Thunder Moon showed a good turn of foot to win the Group 1 National Stakes last season but found the soft ground blunting his speed when third in the Dewhurst. Should stay the mile and the better ground will suit him better than last time.
Charlie Appleby saddles recent Craven winner Master Of The Seas who goes well on quick ground and showed he handles the track well last time. The other Appleby runner is One Ruler who won last years Autumn Stakes over C&D and finished runner-up in the Futurity Trophy at Doncaster.
Lucky Vega won the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes last season and finished runner-up in the Middle Park on his final start. Best form last season over 6f. He should stay 7f but a strongly run mile could stretch his stamina.
Mutasaabeq has been supplemented after his win here over 7f at the Craven Meeting last time. Also won his only start as juvenile here. Lacks the experience of most of his rivals but looks capable of plenty of improvement and should stay the mile.
Poetic Flare showed he’s trained on from two to three when winning the 2,000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown 20-days ago. Showed a likeable attitude when winning last time and is open to more improvement for the step up to a mile. Trainer Jim Bolger won this in 2013 with Poetic Flare’s sire Dawn Approach and two of his other runners since 1997 have placed. Racing on the quickest ground he’s faced so far but if he handles it can get into the money.
Verdict: A competitive renewal of the race. All three of the Aidan O’Brien runners are contenders and I wouldn’t be surprised if the outsider of the three Van Gogh was the best of his trio. Thunder Moon will be suited by the quick ground and has a good turn of foot. I don’t really fancy Master Of The Sea & One Ruler. Lucky Vega probably won’t stay a mile although he looks overpriced on his juvenile form Mutasaabeq should stay the mile and looked an exciting prospect when winning here at the Craven Meeting. Poetic Flare showed quality attitude when winning at Leopardstown and has each way claims.
1pt each way – Poetic Flare – 14/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Thirsk
ITV racing are also covering the Thirsk Hunt Cup. There’s some excellent prize money on offer for this Class 2 handicap and it’s attracted a big field of runners.
2:40 – Cliff Stud Thirsk Hunt Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 1m
Given the size of the field its good that there’s likely to be good pace.
Astro King and Nugget both won their last starts and are progressive. The former is up 6lb for a Nottingham win 24-days ago. He’s only had two starts on turf and looks open to more improvement of the front two in the betting.
Acquitted ran Palace Pier close on his seasonal reappearance last season but didn’t beat a rival on his next two starts. Made another good seasonal reappearance when a neck 2nd of 20 in the Spring Mile at Doncaster. Only up 1lb for that effort and remains ahead of his mark. Quick ground is a bit of an unknown and a low draw isn’t usually a positive in a big field handicaps over mile here.
William Haggas won this in 2018 and has another live contender in Tom Collins. The 4-year-old won two of his eight starts on turf for previous trainer David Elsworth. First start since switching to the Haggas yard. Now 5lb above his last winning mark but looks the sort to improve as a 4-year-old. Stall 13 isn’t great but if it’s not an inconvenience won’t be far away.
It’s been a great four days at the Punchestown Festival and I’m loathe not put up some selections from the Irish track today. I don’t have the time to look at the card in the same detail as I have for the previous four days but I have had a look at three of the handicaps.
Verdict: Can Acquitted build on his promising seasonal return at Doncaster. If he does, he’s on a good mark. Astro King looks progressive whilst Tom Collins is interesting on his first start for William Haggas and looks to have been primed for this.
1pt win – Tom Collins – 7/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
Punchestown
2:50 – Colm Quinn BMW Group Handicap Chase – 3m 7f
Mister Fogpatches looks the one to beat after finishing a 4¼ lengths 3rd of 22 to Mighty Thunder in Scottish Grand National at Ayr last time. Proved his stamina for 4m at Ayr but needs to jump better than he did there. If it all click jumping wise there is staying handicap chase in the 7-year-old.
Regal Encore has tended to be at his best at Ascot but he did finish runner-up in the race in 2019. Trainer Anthony Honeyball had a winner here on Thursday and although the 13-year-old is vulnerable to younger legs he will give his backers a good run for their money.
1pt win – Regal Encore – 8/1 @ Bet365
4:30 – Palmerstown House Pat Taaffe Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 3m ½ f
Ten Ten comes into the race in solid form having finished runner-up over hurdles and occupying the same position in the Leinster National last month. Up 4lb but is a solid enough contender. Didn’t get to race when whipping round at the start for a handicap chase here on Wednesday. Looks interesting on his Leinster National run.
Fag An Bealach put up a much improved performance when winning the Ulster National at Downpatrick last month. Clearly the mare stays well, goes well on decent ground and although she’s been raised 10lb for that success remains on a good mark if in the same form as last time.
1pt win – Ten Ten – 8/1 @ Bet365
5:05 – BARONERACING.COM Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) – 2m 4f
This is arguably the most competitive handicap of the five days of the festival.
Chatham Street Lad looks well handicapped back over hurdles given his form over fences this season. Emmet Mullins saddles The Shunter also back over hurdles today and Grade 2 winning novice hurdle Cape Gentlemen who makes his handicap debut on just his fourth start over hurdles. The 5-year-old has a tough mark off 140 to overcome but is open to more progress.
Drop The Anchor won Ladbrokes Hurdle at Leopardstown two starts back and was an excellent 3¼ lengths 7th of 25 in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham last time. Still to prove he stays 2m 4f but he finished his race of strongly last time and looks worth another try at the distance.
On Eagles Wings and Goodbye Someday were first and second in a Grade 2 at Navan in March and their shouldn’t be much between the pair here.The winner has improved since when a 3¾ lengths 5th of 20 to Lady Breffni over 3m at Fairyhouse. The form of that race got a big boast when the 4th Capadanno easily won a 3m handicap hurdle here on Thursday. Can race off the same mark here and the progressive 7-year-old won’t be inconvenienced by the drop back in trip.
Lady Breffni is 6lb higher than for her Fairyhouse win so isn’t certain to confirm form with On Eagles Wings especially as the drop back in trip isn’t certain to suit. Still, she’s mare in good form and can’t be discounted for a trainer in great form and has won six of the last ten running’s of the race, including the last three. Besides Lady Breffini Willie Mullins saddles nine of the 24 runners and the best of them could be Sayo. The 7-year-old ran to his very best when 4th of 26 in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham last time. He jumped much better than he has done in the past and Rachel Blackmore has been booked for the ride.
1pt win – On Eagles Wings – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt each way – Drop The Anchor – 18/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
Cheers
John