Hi all,
A couple of big days racing ahead. It’s Guineas Weekend at Newmarket. On Saturday it’s the 2000 Guineas and on Sunday the fillies take centre stage with the 1000 Guineas.
Today it’s the first time since the return of racing that there will be three meetings. Besides Newmarket there are fixtures at Newcastle & Lingfield.
As well as the Guineas meeting, ITV Racing will be covering three races at Newcastle, including the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes which is normally run at Ascot.
A lot to cover today so I don’t have the time to go into things in too much detail but I have selections from both Newmarket & Newcastle.
Let’s begin the first Saturday betting preview of the flat season, at where else but Newmarket which has a bumper nine race card to enjoy or endure depending how the betting goes.
Newmarket
There were some heavy showers at Newmarket on Friday and more are forecast for Saturday. They shouldn’t ease ground too much and as horses will be running on fresh ground the going should be almost perfect.
1:15 – The action gets underway with a 5f Class 2 handicap for which 12 runners have been declared.
Count D’orsey improved with each of his last four starts last Autumn winning at Ripon and ending the season with a decisive success in the Catterick Dash. Up 5lb in the weights for that latter win but looks the sort to continue to improve as a 4-year-old. Both those wins came with soft in the going description so if he’s as effective on a sounder surface seems he’s the one they all have beat. James Doyle is an eye-catching jockey having his first ride for trainer Tim Easterby.
1pt win – Count D’orsey – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:35 – The first colt’s classic the Qipco 2000 Guineas has attracted a field of 15 runners.
Last year’s top juvenile Pinatubo is a hot favourite for the race. An almost freakishly top 2-year-old. The best for 25 years. He will be something special if he’s improved over the winter. He looked a shade small last year which adds to the intrigue as to how well he’s trained on. If he has then It’s hard to see him getting beat.
Kenzai Warrior a so ofn French 2000 Guineas and Breeders Cup Mile winner Karakontie. The colt won both his starts last season. Making all to win on his racecourse debut at Salisbury before going onto win the rearranged Group 3 Horris Hill Stakes at Newmarket in November. It was heavy ground that day but he showed a good attitude inside the final two furlongs to gain battling success. The colt hails from an unfashionable yard (Roger Teal) which means he should go off a decent price. He handles the track and worth remembering the trainer had the runner-up in the race in 2018.
Aidan O’Brien brings over four colts from Ireland. The one that interests me most isn’t his first-string Arizona but Wichita. The colt had impressed when a seven-length winner of the Group 3 Somerville Tattersall Stakes at Newmarket last September. That success prompted connections to supplement him for the Dewhurst Stakes. The son of No Nay Never seemed to resent the soft ground but wasn’t disgraced in finishing a 4 ¾ length third to Pinatubo. With the required improvement I can see him giving Pinatubo a race should he get decent ground.
Verdict: Hard to look beyond Pinatubo in truth. I’m expecting better from Wichita this season and on better ground he should get closer to the favourite than he did in the Dewhurst. At bigger odds the unbeaten Kenzai Warrior can get into places for a trainer who had a big race win here on Friday.
0.5pts each way – Kenzai Warrior – 25/1 @ Bet365 ( paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
4:10 – Exec Chef was a multiple winner in 2018 but found life tougher last season off his lofty mark Despite not winning last year he put in some really good efforts in defeat last summer, including when runner-up in the Spring Mile at Doncaster on his seasonal reappearance. His form tailed off in the second half of the season which means he’s dropped to a winnable mark again. His best form on RPR’s has come over 1m 1f/ 1m 2f but if he gets a strongly run race, he’s handicapped to go close.
1pt win – Exec Chef – 13/2 @ Bet365
5:20 – Jouska a winner of a Sandown maiden on her second career start last July. The filly ended last season when putting up a career best to finish a ¾ length 3rd of 12 here in the Group 3 Cornwallis Stakes. A big strong filly she should make up into a decent sprinter this season and should stay 6f < Capable of a bold show if fully tuned up for her return.
Smokey Bear built on the promise of his first two starts last year when winning at Newbury & Kempton in the Autumn. The son of Kodiac makes his handicap debut off a workable mark of 87 and looks to have a good chance of making it a winning one.
1pt win – Jouska – 10/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Smokey Bear – 5/1 @ William Hill
5:55 – Another competitive handicap concludes the 2000 Guineas card. There may only be nine declared runners but you can make some sort of case for all of them.
Ralph Beckett horses seem to be needing the run which puts me slightly off C&D winner Rock Eagle who ran only once in 2019 and is having his first run for 378-days. He can win races of his present mark but I’m not sure it will be today.
Rise Hall won twice last yearat around 1m 2f, including over the July Course. He ran just as well when 4th in a big field handicap at York’s Ebor Meeting. A son of Frankel he races like he will get 1m 4f, even if his pedigree raises doubts. Just 2lb higher than his last winning mark, he did win first time up last season and if he stays can go close.
1pt win – Rise Hall – 7/1 @ Bet365
Newcastle
2:40 – The Group 3 Sagaro Stakes, normally run at Ascot, is the highlight of the Newcastle card. A Gold Cup Trial, it doesn’t normally attract a big field of stayers but this year 11 have been declared to run and it looks a competitive renewal.
Withhold is one from one here having won the 2018 Northumberland Plate over C&D. He won that race off a 259-day break and also won first time up at Newbury last July so he should be fit enough to himself justice today. The cheekpieces he’s worn since winning the 2017 Cesarewitch are replaced by the first-time blinkers. If the change of headgear works, he’s a major player.
Ispolini won the German St Leger on his final start last season but his best form of 2019 came when he finished runner-up to stablemate Cross Counter in the Dubai Cup at Meydan over 2m. A winner of his one start on the all-weather at Kempton if he takes to the Tapeta he’s unexposed as a stayer.
Prince Of Arran finished runner-up to Withhold in the Northumberland Plate, He went Down Under in the autumn winning the Geelong Cup over 1m 4f before finishing runner-up in the Melbourne Cup. He’s a definite contender if fit enough although I suspect another tilt at the Melbourne Cup will surely be his main target for the year.
Royal Line has had his training problems but at his best he’s not far off Group 1 standard over staying trips. He’s won fresh in the past so should be ready to go for his first since November. The 6-year-old won the Group 3 September Stakes on the polytrack at Kempton so should be fine on the surface. his sire Dubawi is 11 winners from 22 runners 15 placed with his progeny here in non-handicaps. If he stays the extended 2m he’s a major player.
Mark Johnson trained last years winner he saddles three Nayef Road, Mildenberger & Kings Advice. The first two named look to have his best chance. Nayef Road won a Group 3 at Goodwood and was third in last year’s St Leger. If he stays 2m and handles the surface won’t be far away at the finish. Mildenberger has won his last two starts, both over two miles on the polytrack, and has potential as a stayer. The track will suit and he’s one for the shortlist.
Verdict: Withhold could get the run of the race like he did when winning the Northumberland Plate here. Provided the jockey on Royal Line times his run properly then he looks to be the one to be with.
1pt win – Royal Line – 11/2 @ Bet365
Cheers
John