Hi all,
It’s Irish Derby Weekend at the Curragh and the historic Northumberland Plate at Newcastle. The best of the action from Newcastle & Newmarket is being covered on ITV racing today. And there’s the bonus of ITV covering nine races on Sunday from Windsor, Newmarket & the Curragh. So, there’s plenty for us to look forward to over the next couple of days.
Newcastle
2:25 – Fool For You, Copper Knight & El Hombre finished first, second & third in this race 12 months ago.
Fool For You wasn’t able to replicate her winning form on three subsequent starts on turf last season but shaped with promise when 4th of 12 at Ayr 5-days ago. She’s 3lb higher than 12 months ago but will be sharper for her return and her form figures on the tapeta are 211. Looks set for a bold bid.
Copper Knight a winner of the race in 2018, can race off the same mark as when runner-up last year. Only beaten a short head on his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket but was a shade disappointing in a Doncaster Listed race 8-days later. A reproduction of his form 12 months & Newmarket puts him firmly in the mix.
El Hombre whose probably slightly better over 6f showed last year that a strongly run 5f at Newcastle also suit. The 6-year-old’s best form has come on the tapeta and he ran almost to his very best when winning at Wolverhampton (6f) 112-days ago. Despite than win can race off 2lb lower than 12 months ago and looks set for another good run.
1pt win – El Hombre – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Copper Knight – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:35 – Betfair Northumberland Plate Handicap (Class 2) – 2m ½ f
Nineteen have been declared for this years Plate and two lightly raced 4-year-old dominate the ante post betting.
Australis was steadily progressive in handicaps on the all-weather at the end of last season and produced a career best effort on RPR’s when winning at Wolverhampton on his seasonal reappearance 18-days ago. Up 5lb but he’s lightly raced and could improve for the step up to 2m.
Caravan Of Hope also improved with racing last season winning twice on turf at Ascot & Doncaster last October. The 4-year-old showed the tapeta surface held no terrors for the gelding when beaten just ½ length by Australis on his return at Wolverhampton. He’s up 4lb, so there shouldn’t be much between the pair again. Despite a wide draw in stall 17. I think he could find a bit more than his old rival for the step up to 2m.
Carnwennan goes really well over C&D as he showed when winning the Plate consolation race at this meeting last year and when finishing runner-up to another of today’s rivals Smart Champion 121-days ago. Vulnerable to any improvers but should go close given his liking for a big field.
Smart Champion was one of my Royal Ascot eyecatcher when 4th of 19 in the Ascot Stakes 11-days ago. He remains unexposed as a stayer and can win races of his present mark this season but my slight concern here would be the quick turnaround from Ascot.
Kings Advice was a big improver in 2019 winning a valuable 1m 6f handicap at ‘Glorious’ Goodwood. Wasn’t beaten far into 6th in this race 12 months ago and shaped with encouragement in the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes over C&D on his reappearance and has since finished runner-up in a Listed race at Doncaster. Has to be considered a contender from a decent draw in 8.
Rajinsky improved for the step up to 1m 6f when winning at Wolverhampton back in December. Was lacking in a bit of tactical speed back down to 1m 4f at Newbury on his return but was doing his best work at the finish to take third. Unexposed as a stayer and is another who can improve for the step up to 2m. He’s got each way claims for a trainer & jockey combination who were third in this 12 months ago.
Verdict: Carnwennan has to be respected given his liking for big field handicaps. Smart Champion can win races of his present mark but seemed to have a hard race at Royal Ascot last time. I think this can go to one of the improving 4-year-old’s Australis & Caravan Of Hope & Rajinsky.
1pt win – Caravan Of Hope – 8/1 @ Bet365
1pt each way – Rajinsky – 12/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
4:10 – Just seven have been declared for this seasons Northumberland Plate consolation race. Al Kout was no match for Australis & Caravan Of Hope when third at Wolverhampton on his return to the flat 18-days ago. The 6-year-old has finished runner-up twice here in 2018, including over C&D, and is handicapped to go close.
1pt win – Al Kout – 4/1 @ Bet365
Newmarket
1:30 – Breath Of Air has returned to action in good form when making all to win at Newbury 15-days ago. Up just 4lb and there could be more to come from the 4-year-old. War Glory has much better record on the all-weather but his turf mark 12lb lower than the all-weather reflects that. Ran well to finish 8th of 23 in the Buckingham Palace Handicap at Royal Ascot 11-days ago. Big chance here if the going stays on the quick side of good.
1pt win – War Glory – 7/1 @ Ladbrokes & Bet365
Curragh
I think Santiago can build on his recent Queen’s Vase Success to win today’s Irish Derby.
6:15 – Ice Cold In Alex is my ‘cliff horse’he goes well at the Curragh (two wins) including C&D. Very consistent and goes well in strongly run big field handicaps. Shaped well once again when 4th of 14 over 6f on his seasonal return. Back to 7f today and set to go well if he gets the race run to suit.
Big Baby Bull has only had nine career starts and shaped well on his first start for new trainer Dennis Hogan when 4th of 16 over 7f at Leopardstown 6-days ago. This is a better race but if he can build on last week’s promise won’t be far away here.
1pt win – Ice Cold In Alex – 6/1 @ Ladbrokes
1pt win – Big Baby Bull – 11/1 @ Ladbrokes
Cheers
John