Hi all,
It’s been a quiet week on the betting front but the next two days are going to be very busy. It’s Derby Day at Epsom and with it the Oaks today and on Sunday it’s the Group 1 Coral Eclipse and the return of Enable at Sandown. Over at Haydock it’s the Lancashire Oaks and the Old Newton Cup.
Today’s preview is shorter than normal most of today’s selections are from Epsom but I also have a recent Royal Ascot eyecatcher running Haydock.
Epsom
3:00 – A tricky little 1m 2f handicap which has attracted 16 runners. The two I like are Johnny Drama and Tinandali.
Johnny Drama, twice a winner when trained In Ireland has yet to win on his five starts since switching to Andrew Balding yard but placed twice at York and a reproduction of his 2nd of 14 in a valuable handicap at York’s Ebor Meeting would see the 5-year-old go close. He pulled to hard and was caught out wide on his seasonal reappearance at Royal Ascot. This track could suit as should the drop back to 1m2f.
Tinandali, shaped with promise on his first start for new trainer David O’Meara when 2nd of 9 at Ayr 12-days ago. Nudged up 2lb for that effort but he was clear of the third that day and he can make his presence felt.
1pt win – Tinandali – 11/1 @ Ladbrokes
1pt win – Johnny Drama – 12/1 @ Coral
3:40 – Investec Oaks (Group 1) (Fillies) – 1m 4f
Just eight fillies have held their ground for this year’s renewal. Hot favourite Love bids for a 1,000 Guineas/Oaks Double and she looks to have an excellent chance of doing it. Frankly Darling has won both her starts this season and should run well. However, Love’s biggest threat could turn out to be her stablemate Ennistymon. A winner of a Leopardstown maiden on her return to action she improved on that run when a 1 ¾ length second to Frankly Darling in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot. She wasn’t as well placed as the winner and is entitled to get closer today in a better run race.
Verdict: Love has a great chance of fillies’ classic double but I’m just siding with her stablemate Ennistymon.
1pt win – Ennistymon – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:55 – Investec Derby (Group 1) – 1m 4f
Unlike the Oaks this years Derby has attracted a field of 16 runners.
English 2000 Guineas winner Kameko has the best form by some margin. Yet he’s only second favourite. He should be favourite given the lack of three-year-old form on offer and is a backable price although there are real doubts about his stamina for the Derby distance. If he does stay and handles the track, i know two big ifs, he wins it.
The booking of Frankie Dettori for Lingfield Derby Trial winner English King is an eyecatching one. The favourite might well go on and win comfortably but there are doubts about the Lingfield form. No issues with the trip though for the colt and he’s drifted out to a backable price.
Aidan O’Brien has several contenders. Mogul is the choice of Ryan Moore. He seems to have gone a bit under the radar after his underwhelming reappearance effort. However, he badly needed the run at Royal Ascot and will have been trained to peak at Epsom. Like stablemate Japan last season, I expect to have come on plenty for that initial run.
Vatican City runner-up in the Irish 2000 Guineas has the class but like Kameko may find his stamina running out come the final furlong.
Russian Emperor was doing his best work at the finish when winning the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot. He should be suited by the step up to 1m4f, He’s tough and should be in the mix.
At a massive price I wouldn’t dismiss Amhran Na Bhfiann. He’s only had two career starts. His 2-year-old debut was no more than a nice introduction to racing at the back of the field as befits a horse bred for middle distances. He left that form well behind when 4th to Tiger Moth in Leopardstown maiden last month. He will improve plenty for that run and is no forlorn hope. His sister won the Epsom Oaks in 2012 and his brother Douglas MacArthur was disgraced when 7th in the 2017 Derby. Now it may turn out he’s a just a pacemaker. However, if he’s not, could sneak into the money at very big odds.
Verdict: The draw puts me off English King & Mogul. Kameko is the class horse of the race on form but there have to be serious doubts about his stamina for the Derby distance. Russian Emperor possibly lacks a bit of class but he’s tough and shouldn’t be far away. At a really big price Amhran Na Bhfiann could sneak in to the places.
0.5pts each way – Amhran Na Bhfiann – 100/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
1pt win – Russian Emperor – 11/2 @ Bet365
5:35 – Previous course winner Reputation won on his seasonal reappearance and first start for Ruth Carr last Spring and races off 1lb higher. The 7-year-old has his first start for Ian Williams today but he’s starting the season off on a good mark and can go close if he’s fully tuned up.
Tintoretto comes into the race looking for a hat trick after a pair of wins at Kempton. He’s up 5lb for that success and despite a rise class is going the right way. Off more concern could be the track for the 5-year-old. Back on turf today, won on grass when trained in Ireland, and has to be respected.
1pt win – Reputation – 12/1 @ Coral
1pt win – Tintoretto – 13/2 @ William Hill
Haydock
2:40 – Shelir twice a winner when trained in Ireland by Dermot Weld went into my tracker when 5th of 23 in the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot on just his second start for David O’Meara. He wasn’t that well away at Ascot and should have finished a bit closer. The return to the mile looks a positive and he’s 2lb lower than last time. If the 4-year-old handles the very soft ground looks more than capable of winning this.
1pt win – Shelir – 9/2 @ Bet365
Cheers
John