Hi all,
Its King George & Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes Day at Ascot and there should be a good-sized crowd. Not a capacity crowd but the Ascot management are suggesting there could be 14,000 spectators coming through the door. Meanwhile York is expecting a possible 30,000 crowd given they have a music night that follows the racing. Whatever the final figure seems likely that York will play host to the biggest crowd at a UK racecourse since the 2020 Cheltenham Festival.
There are seven races on ITV this afternoon with the broadcaster showing the best of the action from Ascot & York. I have had look at all seven of the ITV races.
Ascot
There could be as much as 10mm of rain at Ascot of course it is though Thundery showers so there could be more or less than that level of rain. Depending how much rain we get could decide the outcome of the four ITV races from the course.
1:50 – Princess Margaret Keeneland Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) – 6f
Desert Dreamer was an unlucky second behind System at Newmarket two starts back and followed up that with an even better effort when runner-up in a Group 2 juvenile contest at the July Meeting. Those two have the best form coming into the race but there are plenty of unexposed fillies, such as Attagirl, Nazanin & Zain Claudette, who are open to further improvement. If the rain does arrive in time Nazanin who won on soft ground at Newbury on her sole start would be of interest.
2:25 – Porsche Handicap (Class 2) – 1m
Just the seven go to post for this but you can give them all a chance.
Fantastic Fox heads the betting. He went off too fast here at Royal Ascot last time and might not have liked the soft ground that day either. A winner at Hamilton two starts back. He must be respected on his 1 ¾ length 3rd of 10 to Snow Lantern at Newbury on his seasonal return. Stablemate and top-weight Mystery Smiles was beaten less than 4 lengths into third in the Craven before being outclassed in the 2,000 Guineas. Not out of it here but De Sousa opts for Fantastic Fox.
Latest Generation was a much-improved ½ length 2nd of 6 to Royal Fleet at Newmarket two weeks ago and must be respected.
Isla Kai completed the hat trick when winning over C&D (good to soft) last time. Best form has come with ease in the ground. He beat Guru a neck that day who gets a 1lb here. If the rain stays away Guru can reverse placings with the winner. If the rain does arrive Isla Kai can’t be disregarded.
Verdict: Guru can reverse placing with Isla Kai but significant rain would likely favour the latter.
1pt win – Guru – 5/1 @ Ladbrokes
3:00 – Moet & Chandon International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) – 7f
Motakhayyel won the Bunbury Cup under top-weight last time. A C&D winner at last season’s Royal meeting. The 5-year-old put in a Group 1 level performance on the figures to win the Bunbury Cup and will be hard to beat under his 3lb penalty.
Matthew Flinders looked suited by the drop back to 7f last time is on a competitive mark. Has looked the sort to land a decent handicap like this.
Danyah who has run well on three starts this season in big field handicaps, including when 2nd of 22 in a C&D handicap last time. Not sure about his low draw but should be competitive if its not an inconvenience.
Dance Fever won at Leicester last time and is back on track.
Star of Orion bounced back from a poor run here in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot when winning over 7f at Newmarket (good to firm) 7-days ago. Has a 3lb penalty to carry for that success but Laura Pearson takes off a handy 5lb.
Cliffs Of Capri was a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 19 in this 12 months ago and is 2lb lower this time around. He’s twice a previous C&D winner. He’s yet to trouble the judge on his three starts this season but shaped much better than he’s 5 ¾ length 7th of 18 in the Bunbury Cup last time. Running at the finish he did best of those who raced far side.
Verdict: Motakhayyel remains well in under his 3lb penalty but wouldn’t want too much rain under his big weight. Both Matthew Flinders and the consistent Danyah are capable of going close and last year’s runner-up Cliffs Of Capri has each way claims again but is another who probably needs a sound surface.
1pt win – Danyah – 15/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
1pt each way – Cliffs Of Capri – 18/1 @ Coral (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
3:35 – King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 4f
The best race of the season so far. Five of the six runners have won a Group 1 and the only none Group 1 winner Lone Eagle almost won the Irish Derby on his last start.
Again, the weather will have a big impact on the race pans out.
Love heads the ante post betting with Paddy Power at 5/4. Last season’s 1,000 Guineas/ Oaks heroine is a deserved market leader. Good or quicker ground really suits the 4-year-old and the return to 1m 4f will suit after her win in the 1m 2f Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot on her seasonal return.
Mishriff was too keen in the Eclipse at Sandown last time. That was the 4-year-old’s first run since winning the Group 1 Sheema Classic at Meydan. That will hopefully have taken the freshness away and better ground, than at Sandown, should suit.
Wonderful Tonight probably needs the ground to ease to run but if it does, she will be a threat to all and I could see her winning this given her liking for the track – 2 wins from 2 runs.
Adayar claims are clear for all to see. A good winner of an above average Epsom Derby. Quick ground would be a bit of an unknown but apart from that he’s got a big chance.
Lone Eagle almost stole the Irish Derby from the front but was collared by Adayar’s stablemate Hurricane Lane in the final strides. That form is strong and he’s not of it.
Verdict: On quick ground Love will be tough to beat. Mishriff will be a tough opponent and is better than he was able to show in the Eclipse last time. Epsom Derby Winner Adayar remains capable of better. Should soft appear in the going description Wonderful Tonight and Lone Eagle are very much forces to be reckoned with. If you’re not on the 14/1 that was available on Wonderful Tonight in midweek, it’s probably a race to enjoy rather than bet in.
York
It looks like it will be mainly dry albeit cloudy at York so the ground should stay on the fast side of good.
2:05 – Sky Bet “Jump Jockeys’ Nunthorpe” Handicap (To Be Ridden By Professional Jump Jockeys) (Class 3) – 5f
I wasn’t going to bother with this race but then I saw my old “cliff horse” Eeh Bah Gum was running. The 6-year-old hasn’t won since 2018 but some of his best RPR’s were achieved in 2019, including when a ¾ length 4th of 19 in the Epsom Dash. A former C&D winner and previously well suited to a sound surface he’s now 17lb below his last winning mark. Granted the foot injury he had last season means he’s not the horse he once was but he could pop up here and has each way claims in a novelty race.
1pt each way – Eeh Bah Gum – 14/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
2:40 – Sky Bet Dash Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
Previous C&D winner Golden Apollo’s form figures in this race are 242. He was beaten ¾ length into second in this race 12 months ago, is 3lb lower this time around, and can meet winner Musika on 4lb better terms. The 7-year-old put in his best performance of the season when a ½ length 2nd of 8 at Pontefract 18-days ago.
Mondammej has been in excellent form this season running well in big field handicaps over 5f/6f. Put in a career best effort on RPR’s when a ½ length 3rd of 18 at Ascot (5f) last time. Keeps going up in the weights, without winning though and has been nudged up 3lb for his Ascot effort. Needs all the cards to fall right but can win a big one when they do.
Giogiobbo has won his last three all at Doncaster. The 8-year-old is up 4lb for the latter of those wins 28-days ago and is a much better race but looks on a good mark based on his form when trained in France.
Gulliver goes well here and you can forgive his last run in the valuable Scurry Handicap at the Curragh last Saturday when he blew the start. Might need a bit more juice in the ground to win this though.
Streamline is an interesting runner he’s only had two starts on the turf, last one came when third in a Listed race as a juvenile in 2019. He missed the whole of last season but returned in reasonable enough form and won a Class 2 handicap at Wolverhampton in March. The 4-year-old returned from a 91-day break when a promising 4th of 14 at Newcastle, 1 length behind Mondammej and can meet that one on 5lb better terms here. Lightly raced and if the rain stays away shouldn’t be far away.
Verdict: Golden Apollo wouldn’t be winning this race out of turn. If the cards fall right Mondammej can win a race like this although he’s edging up in the weights after some consistent placed efforts. Streamline is lightly raced and unexposed on turf and can’t be ruled out.
1pt win – Golden Apollo – 15/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
1pt win – Streamline – 10/1 @ Ladbrokes & Paddy Power
3:15 – Sky Bet York Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 2 ½ f
Just five go to post for York’s feature race. The market is headed by Mohaafeth who made it 4-4 in 2021 when winning the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot last month. A win today and he will likely return to the venue for next month’s International Stakes.
His credentials for that race will be tested by the Aidan O’Brien trained 4-year-old Armory who finished a 1 ½ length third to stablemate Love in the Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Juan Elcano showed the benefit of wind surgery when bouncing back to something like his best when successful in the Listed Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot. More improvement can’t be ruled out but like the other two mentioned he looks at his best on good or quicker ground.
Cheers
John