Hi all,
York takes centre stage today with the betting highlight of an eight-race card being the John Smith’s Cup (2:30). There’s also a decent supporting card at Newbury. Over in Ireland it’s the fourth Irish Classic of the season with the latest running of the Irish Oaks.
Just the four races come under today’s microscope.
York
2:30 – John Smith’s Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 2 ½ f
Tom Segal (Pricewise) thinks those at the front end of the betting the likes of Caradoc, Solid Stone & Harrovian are vulnerable and I tend to agree with him. However, of those three named you have to respect the claims of Caradoc. He will be all the better for his seasonal reappearance 6th of 13 at Epsom and is lightly raced enough to think he can progress further as a 4-year-old. All his best form has come on good or good to firm so any ease in the ground is a bit of an unknown but at least we know he goes well at York.
My three against the field are:
Afaak won last years Hunt Cup off 2lb lower and wasn’t disgraced when a 4-length 5th in this race 12 months ago. Only 7th in this years Hunt Cup but he probably needed the run and better can be expected today.
Baltic Baron was 5th in this years Hunt Cup. The 5-year-old doesn’t win very often but he’s talented enough to pop up in a big field handicap like this sometime this season. Was unlucky in the run when 5th in the Golden Mile at Goodwood and a reproduction of that run would see him go close. Stamina for today’s trip has to be proven but he shaped at Ascot like he will stay.
Sinjaari was competitive in some hot 3-year-old handicaps last season, including when beaten just a short head by Headman in the London Gold Cup and 3rd of 11 at Goodwood. First run since a winter gelding operation and a solid case can be made for him on the best of last season’s form. The same can be said for stablemate Desert Icon who was an easy winner at Newmarket 20-days ago.
Verdict: Of those at the front end of the market Caradoc looks fairly solid enough. Afaak, Baltic Baron & Sinjaari all have each way claims in an open looking race.
0.5pts each way – Baltic Baron – 16/1 @ Bet365 (paying 5 places ¼ odds)
0.5pts each way – Afaak – 22/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
0.5pts each way – Sinjaari – 16/1 @ Coral (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
3:05 – At the prices I’m happy to take a chance with Alpha Delphini. The 9-year-old returns to the track for the first time since finishing runner-up to Battaash at Haydock in May 2019. A dual C&D winner, the last of those wins came when holding off Mabs Cross to win the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes in 2018. If anywhere near his best form would take the beating back down to Listed company.
1pt win – Alpha Delphini – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Curragh
6:15 – Paddy Power Scurry Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 6f
Typically, competitive renewal of the Scurry. Plenty of live contenders among the seventeen declared runners.
Blairmayne seems to reserve his best for the Curragh, twice a winner over C&D last season. He was 3rd of 18 here 9-days ago and has place claims again
Gulliver relishes these big field handicaps. He was 4th of 22 in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot and although he’s been nudged up 1lb the excellent Gavin Ryan takes off a handy 5lb which makes him a strong contender.
Ice Cold In Alex 2nd of 16 in a valuable mile handicap at Cork 6-days ago won’t be inconvenienced by the drop back to a strongly run 6f. He can be relied upon to run his race and although he needs all the cards to fall right, if they do, he can win this.
Ardhoomey isn’t as good as he once was but he retains plenty of ability as he showed when 2nd of 14 over two starts back and 4th of 18 here over C&D, 8-days ago. The 8-year-old is vulnerable to younger legs but is on a winnable mark.
Romantic Proposal was a notable improver over 7f last autumn. The 4-year-old will be sharper for her seasonal reappearance here over 7f three weeks ago and she’s an interesting contender having her first run over 6f.
Tommy Taylor is on a long losing run which goes back nearly three years. However, he’s shaped well on both starts since racing resumed in Ireland both over 7f. Drop back to 6f shouldn’t be an inconvenience for the 6-year-old who’s on a winnable mark and has each way claims.
Verdict: Gulliver with a useful 5lb apprentice in the saddle is feared. Ice Cold In Alex can never be ruled out in races like this. The veteran Ardhoomey is handicapped to win. Tommy Taylor has each way claims as has potential improver Romantic Proposal.
1pt win – Gulliver – 15/2 @ Bet365
1pt win – Ardhoomey – 10/1 @ Bet365
0.5pts each way – Tommy Taylor – 12/1 (paying 4 places ¼ odds)
7:15 – Juddmonte Irish Oaks (Group 1) – 1m 4f
Just eight fillies stand their ground for this year’s Irish Oaks and half of them are trained by Aidan O’Brien.
Ennistymon. has finished runner-up to Love in Epsom Oaks and Frankly Darling in the Ribblesdale on her last two starts. She continues to improve and wouldn’t be winning out of turn.
Laburnum a daughter of Galileo won a Gowran Park maiden last month and improved on that performance when runner-up to Even So in the Naas Oaks Trial 14-days ago. There should be more to come from this progressive filly although on pedigree she’s not guaranteed to stay the Oaks trip.
No issues with the trip for another O’Brien improver Snow. A winner of the Group 3 Munster Oaks at Cork and a half-sister to Kew Gardens. There is a good chance that she hasn’t reached her class ceiling yet and she could turn out to be the best of the Ballydoyle contenders.
Likely favourite Cayenne Pepper was a high-class juvenile. She looks to have taken time to come to hand this season, but given that connections have always seen her as a middle-distance filly this race has probably been her target. Made a good seasonal reappearance finishing runner-up to Magical in the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes 20-days ago. Should be sharper for that run and the step up to 1m 4f can unlock more improvement. The daughter of Australia is the one they all have to beat.
Given the form of the Joseph O’Brien stable you can’t rule out New York Girl. Fourth in the Irish 1000 Guineas she was then pitched in to face the colts in the Irish Derby. Slowly away that day she could never get into the race after that but wasn’t disgraced in 7th. She’s better than that form and has each way claims back against her own sex
Even So had finished one place behind New York Girl in the Irish 1000 Guineas. Given her middle-distance pedigree she did well to finish as close as she did in fifth and was doing her best work at the finish. Sharper for her Guineas run of that run she showed a good attitude to hold off Laburnum at Naas last time. The step up to 1m 4f will bring out even more improvement in the daughter of Camelot and provided the ground isn’t too quick on Saturday has solid each way claims.
Verdict: On form this looks between Ennistymon & Cayenne Pepper. However, the likes of Snow and Laburnum have the look of Aidan O’Brien improving fillies as does the Ger Lyons trained Even So who should relish the step up to 1m 4f.
1pt each way – Even So – 12/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John