Hi all,
When Red Force One won the Summer Hurdle it looked like it was going to be another good day for the service but sadly it didn’t turn out to be the case. Still not much damage to the betting bank on the day.
The Group 1 July Cup is the highlight of an eight-race card on the final day of Newmarket’s July Festival. There’s also a good supporting card at Ascot with the Group 2 Summer Mile the highlight of another eight-race card.
We have been spoilt with the quality of Sunday racing since racing resumed from lockdown so tomorrow’s fare will come as a bit of a shock. I don’t see any potential selections tomorrow so these will be the final ones of the weekend.
I will begin Saturday’s betting preview at Newmarket.
Newmarket
1:50 – Haqeeqy has won both starts this season, both over 7f at Yarmouth and under a penalty on the Rowley Course 22-days ago. Has been given a decent mark of 92 for his handicap debut. Open to more improvement and should stay a mile.
Establish improved for the step to a mile as his pedigree suggested when an excellent 3rd of 12 at Lingfield two starts back. Didn’t have to reach that level of form when winning a Bath novice 16-days ago. The son of Australia is going the right way and although he’s bred for a bit further, he travels well enough in his races to think he can win a handicap like this over a mile.
1pt win – Establish – 17/2 @ William Hill
3:35 – Darley July Cup Stakes (Group 1) – 6f
Thirteen have been declared for this race and it looks a high-quality race with impressive Commonwealth Cup winner Golden Horde taking on Diamond Jubilee winner Hello Youmzain.
Hello Youmzain won the Group 1 Haydock Sprint Cup last September and added a second Group 1 win to his career when winning the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot on his seasonal return. Always in a prominent position it looked like eventual third Sceptical had his measure when taking a slight lead, a furlong out but his credit Hello Youmzain battled back to lead close home and hold of the late challenge of Dream Of Dreams. Diamond Jubilee winners racing in a Group 1 race and racing between 16 to 30-days are 4 winners from 14 runners 29% +8.75 7 placed 50%.
Sceptical re-opposes again and has a chance of reversing form on this slightly speedier 6f, especially if the ground dries out.
Khaadem was 1 ¾ lengths back in fourth that day. He was too keen for his own good that day but was only run out of the places in the final 100yds. He’s won over C&D in the past and today’s bigger field could enable him to get more cover. On good or quicker ground, he would need respecting. Interesting that jockey Jim Crowley come here rather than ride Mohaather at Ascot.
Golden Horde a high-class juvenile showed he had trained on well from two to three with a decisive win the Commonwealth Cup and is open to more improvement.
Of the rest Threat travelled strongly but didn’t seem to stay a mile when 5th of 7 in the Group 1 St James’ Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. Drop in trip looks a wise one and he can’t be dismissed lightly although you would expect there would be a couple who might have a bit too much pace for him.
Verdict: Golden Horde could prove to be this seasons champion sprinter by winning this and has a favourites chance. If the going was good a win by Khaadem wouldn’t surprise. However, on the anticipated ground and at the prices it has to be the slightly underrated Hello Youmzain.
1pt win – Hello Youmzain – 9/2 @ Bet365
4:10 – bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 7f
A typically competitive renewal of the Bunbury Cup with 18 declared to run. The ante post betting has been dominated by the Hamdan Al Maktoum pair of Motakhayyel & Mutamaasik who were first & third in the Buckingham Palace Handicap at Royal Ascot and they could dominate again.
Raising Sand wasn’t disgraced when 8th of 23 in the Hunt Cup and did best of those racing over the far side. The softer the ground the better for the 8-year-old back down to 7f. Looks better drawn in 16 today but is vulnerable to any better handicapped horses.
Tomfre is 2 wins from 2 runs, including C&D. The 3-year-old is ground versatile and ran a cracker to finish a short head second to Well Of Wisdom at Sandown last month. Raised 4lb he remains open to more progress and shouldn’t be far away.
Sir Busker is seeking the hat trick after wins at Newcastle & Royal Ascot. The last of those wins coming in the Silver Hunt Cup where he came with a powerful late run to lead in the shadow of the post. That was over a mile so he will need the anticipated strong pace dropped back a furlong in distance. Up 5lb for his Ascot win but the 4-year-old is going the right way and has to be high on the shortlist.
Arigato & Kasbaan were first & third in a 7f handicap on the Rowley course two weeks ago. Arigato is looking for a hat trick and should go well. Kasbaan a three-time winner on the all-weather was having his first start on turf for present connections and seemed fully effective on it. He might need a mile but a strongly run 7f and he could get in to the money. At the revised weights there shouldn’t be too much between the pair today.
Keyser Soze is rated 10lb better on the all-weather than the turf. The 6-year-old tends to be slowly away as he was when well beaten in the Buckingham Palace last time. However, he was only sent off 14/1 that day so someone thinks he can win a race like this on grass. Cieren Fallon takes off a handy 3lb and on a going day I could see him running into the money at big odds.
Verdict: The claims of Motakhayyel & Mutamaasik are obvious but they look plenty short enough for me. Keyser Soze could easily pop up in a race like this. Dual course winner Tomfre is an improving 3-year-old who has to be respected. If you like Arigato you can’t dismiss the claims of Kasbaan who’s more than three times his price in some places. It’s hard to say how the draw will pan out but if low numbers hold sway then don’t rule out Sir Busker who will be suited by a strongly run 7f on easy ground.
1pt each way – Sir Busker – 12/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places 1/4 odds)
0.5pts each way – Kasbaan – 33/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places 1/4 odds)
Ascot
3:15 – Mohaather was unlucky with how the race panned out when only 7th to Circus Maximus in the Queen Anne at the Royal Meeting. He got no sort of run at crucial part of the of the race and would have gone close to winning with a clear run. The best is yet to come and he’s the one to beat.
Drying ground brings the consistent Marie’s Diamond into the mix. He was an excellent third in the Queen Anne could get an uncontested lead out in front.
Skardu was another not suited by the way the race was run in the Queen Anne. Fourth in last year’s St James’ Palace over C&D, the drier the ground the better for the 4-year-old but once again the forecast slow pace could be an inconvenience.
San Donato hasn’t fared well with draw in stall 10 but he’s the most intriguing of the 11 runners. The 4-year-old beat Hello Youmzain as a 2-year-old and ended his juvenile season with a win in a Listed race at Doncaster. Just the one run since October 2018 when 3rd to Persian King in the French 2000 Guineas last May. He may end up being more effective over 7f but has each way claims if retaining his old ability.
Verdict: Mohaather is priced up on potential rather than form. Now he’s the most likely winner but looks short enough given he’s yet to conclusively prove a mile is his right trip. Marie’s Diamond will be hard to peg back if given an easy time up front. Despite his draw I like the claims of the unexposed San Donato, who like the favourite has to be prove a mile is his optimum distance, but is a fair each way price.
1pt each way – San Donato – 16/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
3:50 – Arecibo has finished runner-up on both starts over C&D. Hold up style of running means he’s a hostage to fortune in his races but he’s capable of going close,
Aplomb has run very well here in the past over 6f but the drying ground isn’t likely to be in his favour as it wasn’t last time in the Silver Wokingham.
National Anthem is a progressive handicap sprinter who comes into the race looking for the four timer. His two wins have come on good to firm so the dryer the ground the better for the 5-year-old. In a better race here and up 4lb in the weights but may not have reached his class ceiling just yet on suitable going.
Ed Walker saddles a couple of strong contenders in Jonah Jones & Mountain Peak. Jonah Jones twice a winner as a juvenile when trained by Tom Dascombe. He seemed to lose his way last season and has switched to the Ed Walker yard. Gelded over the winter and dropping back to 5f for the first time, he ran a cracker to finish third to Celsius at Haydock last month. There should more to come from him this season. Mountain Peak was C&D winner as 3-year-old put in a career best on RPR’s when winning at Haydock 17-days ago. The handicapper has hiked the 5-year-old up 7lb for that success but it would folly to think he can’t defy if given his current form if he gets good or quicker going.
Lahore put in a career best when dropped back to 5f when winning at Doncaster two starts back. Never recovered from a slow start when down the field in the Gosforth Park Sprint, A strongly run race will suit and better can be expected from the 6-year-old returned to turf.
Wedding Date finished runner-up to Chairmanoftheboard at Windsor and just failed by a shorth head to catch Dark Regard at Newmarket 15-days ago. Both those runs came over 6f but a return to a stiff 5f could suit the filly.
Stone Of Destiny doesn’t win very often but Ascot is very much his track. A C&D winner last August off 1lb higher. The 5-year-old ran well for a long way when 6th of 22 in the Wokingham at the Royal Meeting. He looked like was coming to challenge the eventual winner Hey Jonesy, a furlong out but couldn’t find any extra in the final stages. Drop back to 5f is a positive but is another who will probably need luck in the run.
Verdict: Plenty in with a chance in this nineteen-runner handicap. The Ed Walker pair of Jonah Jones & Mountain Peak are high on the shortlist. The anticipated strong gallop will suit the likes of C&D winner Stone Of Destiny, Arecibo and Lahore.
1pt each way – Mountain Peak – 14/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places ¼ odds)
1pt win – Jonah Jones – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John