Hi all,
Sorry, I couldn’t get this out last evening as promised.
Given Haydock must survive an early morning inspection I will begin this Saturday preview at Ascot. The feature race of the weekend is Ascot’s Grade 1 Clarence House Chase (3:35). There might be only six runners but it’s an intriguing looking race.
Ascot
1:50 – Paddys Motorbike has been well placed to win his last two starts in maiden/novice company at Uttoxeter and Huntingdon since joining his present yard. The 9-year-old is back in handicap company off what looks a decent mark.
Lightly Squeeze was third behind Not So Sleepy here in a valuable handicap hurdle before Christmas. He’s just 3lb higher and if he stays today’s extra 3 ½ f won’t be far away.
1pt win – Paddy Motorbike – 6/1 @ Paddy Power
2:25 – Cobolobo hasn’t been the most consistent of horses but he put in a career best effort on RPR’s when making all to win at Exeter 37-days ago. The 9-year-old goes well on heavy ground but he could competition for the lead.
De Forgotten One. Third in the Cross-Country race at Cheltenham last month. The 7-year-old had no trouble in seeing off six rivals back over regulation fences at Catterick 20-days ago. Now 3-8 over fences. He’s been raised 10lb for his last win but remains open to further improvement. Like Cobolobo he will face competition for the lead.
Crossley Tender was third behind Cobolobo at Exeter and has since gone onto win back at the same venue. Likely to be ridden patently so could get the race run to suit.
Yalltari finished third in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase over C&D two seasons back. Only four starts since but hasn’t really shown the form to think he can win this. If he was to bounce back to form, he would be on a good mark.
Townshend won this race 12 months ago and can race off 1lb lower today. Course form over fences at Ascot is a big positive. On the negative side he’s not been in any real form since that win.
1pt win – De Forgotten One – 9/2 @ Bet365
3:00 – A seriously competitive 2m 5f handicap chase which has attracted 14 runners. It looks like the race could be strongly run as their a few who like to be up with the pace.
I’m going to take on the market leaders Good Boy Bobby who was a decent fourth in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup last time and Bennys King who won a handicap chase over 2m 3f before Christmas.
Dashel Drasher beat two rivals over C&D last time. Less exposed over fences than most of his rivals and makes his handicap chase debut off what looks a workable mark. Capable of more improvement and is 2-2 at the venue so must be high on the shortlist.
Domaine De L’Isle was in great form when winning this race 12 months. Can race off the same mark here but he hasn’t run to last years best on subsequent starts. Get’s the first-time blinkers and if they have the desired effect, he’s handicapped to go close.
Jerrysback has placed on both his starts at Ascot. First run since finishing 3rd of 10 here over 3m in December 2019. Trainer Philip Hobbs had a first-time out handicap chase winner at Newbury this week and I can see this one going well.
Acting Lass finished one place ahead of Jerrysback in the Ascot race and won this race in 2018. However, he’s pulled up on both starts since. Has had a wind-op since his last run at Bangor 73-days ago. Will like the testing ground and can’t be totally dismissed.
Windsor Avenue wasa good second behind Imperial Aura at Carlisle on his seasonal return but then pulled up in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup at Cheltenham. The 8-year-old looked to return to form when third in the Rowland Meyrick over 3m at Wetherby. Capable of getting into the money and will be suited by the likely strong pace.
Espoir De Guye looked a handicap chaser worth following when winning over C&D, his second win at the track, on his seasonal return. Didn’t stay 3m back here 35-days ago and will be better suited by a return to today’s trip. Get’s the first-time tongue and should go well.
Verdict: Last year’s winner Domaine De L’Isle could be set for a big run in the first-time blinkers. Jerrsyback has run well here in the past and looks capable of landing a decent pot over fences off his present mark. Course and distance winner Dashel Drasher is open to more progress over fences but takes on some experienced handicappers here. Drop back in trip will be more in Espoir De Guye’s favour and he’s better than he showed over 3m last time.
1pt each way – Jerrysback – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
1pt each way – Domaine De L’Isle – 14/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
3:35 – Matchbook Betting Exchange Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 1f
Tingle Creek winner Politologue head the ante post betting for this race and is the one to beat. I can see him being sent out in front and play catch me if you can.
Last year’s winner Defi Du Seuil must bounce back from two underwhelming runs in the Champion Chase and in the Shloer Chase on his seasonal reappearance.
Unlike Defi Du Seuil, Waiting Patiently has proven his wellbeing. He also finished within a length of that one in last season’s Tingle Creek and has an extra furlong to race here. Now he might be a better horse over 2m 4f but the soft ground will bring his stamina into play and he’s won here in the past although that success came over 2m 4f.
Course and distance winner First Flow steps out of handicap company for the first time in his hat trick bid. Ticks the boxes marked course, distance and going but needs more improvement to win.
The Venetia Williams trained Fanion D’Estruval was still going well when falling three out in the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase last time and could be the each- way bet in the race if he handles going right-handed.
Verdict: Waiting Patiently deserves another Grade 1 win but Politologue seems to have turned a corner and will be hard to beat. The intriguing Fanion D’Estruval and First Flow look set to fight out for the minor money. The double figure price has gone on Fanion D’Estruval so it’s watching rather than a betting race for me.
I have just looked at one Haydock race as I’m not convinced the card will survive the weather although it’s more down to frost than rain.
Haydock
2:40 – Peter Marsh Handicap Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) – 3m 1 ½ f
Royale Pagaille is a short priced favourite and rightly so. The 7-year-old made a winning return to action in a novices’ chase here over 2m 5 ½ f and took advantage of good opening handicap chase when winning at Kempton over 3m last month. The handicapper has hiked him up 16lb for that success but he still looks on a winnable mark, especially as some pundits have put him up as a lively outsider for the Gold Cup.
Sam Brown made a good return to action when third to Imperial Aura at Carlisle 83-days ago. Won a Grade 2 novices’’ chase at this meeting last year and goes very well on heavy ground. First time tongue tie for his handicap chase debut and looks set to go well.
Lightly raced Acey Milan a stablemate of Sam Brown gives trainer Anthony Honeyball a strong hand in the race. The 7-year-old has only had three starts over fences. Poor run at Plumpton last month to overcome but he’s surely better than that performance and has a nice light weight.
There was plenty to like about Sam’s Adventure’s win over C&D last time. A 6lb rise in the weights looks fair/ At his best on heavy ground he’s must have big chance here.
Crievehill won over course and distance here last season and is back down to that same mark. Slight concern about really heavy ground for the 9-year-old and he’s yet to hit form on his three starts this season.
Smooth Stepper won the Grand National Trial here over 3m 4 ½ f last February. Wasn’t disgraced when 5th of 14 in the Becher Chase at Aintree last time. Vulnerable to more progressive/better handicapped types but run into the places.
Lamanavar Pippin is lightly raced and unexposed over fences. A winner of one of his three starts over the larger obstacles last season. The 8-year-old ran a race full of promise on when 3rd of 11 at Cheltenham on his seasonal return. Ran no sort of race when beaten favourite in the Grand National Trial at Chepstow last time. Stays well and has winning form on testing ground. Trainer Colin Tizzard remains a yard to wary of 0-38 but plenty of his horses have run well this week and he saddled the winner of the race 2018 and the runner up in 2019.
Verdict: You have the right favourites in Royale Pagaille and Sam Brown who both will handle conditions. Lamanavar Pippin has drifted out to a value price and despite trainer form looks worth an each-way play. Sam’s Adventure ticks the right boxes and won’t be far away.
1pt each way – Lamanavar Pippin – 14/1 @ William Hill (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
1pt win – Sam’s Adventure – 11/2 – Gen
Cheers
John