Hi all,
Not quite a Super Saturday this week. However, we do have a ‘last-minute’ Cheltenham Trials’ meeting at Kempton with a clutch of Grade 2 races: The Close Brothers Pendil Novices’ Chase (1:50), Close Brothers Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (2:25), the Sky Bet Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle (3:00) and all three races could contain pointers for next month’s Festival. There also the Grade 3 Close Brothers Handicap Chase (3:35). Formerly the Racing Post Chase. The races quality has declined in recent seasons but this year’s entries suggest we should see a decent line up.
Up in the North East, it’s the marathon Vertem sponsored Eider Handicap Chase (3:15) at Newcastle. For all all-weather fans it’s one of the highlights of the winter with the latest running of Lingfield’s Winter Derby (2:40) and there’s also the Listed 5f Hever Stakes (2:05). Both Lingfield races are being covered by ITV, along with the Eider Chase from Newcastle and the best of the action from Kempton.
The ground is drying out around the country more and more with each passing day and at the time of writing Kempton’s going is currently being described as good, good to soft in places and I have feeling there won’t be much good to soft come race time. Even at Newcastle its dried out and is now soft, good to soft in places.
Given so much of the winter action has taken place on soft or worse ground. It’s going to be interesting to see if the form is over turned in the coming weeks.
Last week was great for the service, this week not so good. It’s not going to be a busiest weekend for me on the betting front although I have had a good look at today’s big handicaps at Kempton and Newcastle and there’s likely to be a selection or two on Sunday.
Let’s begin this preview at Kempton with a race not being covered by ITV.
Kempton
1:15 – Close Brothers Asset Finance Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) – 2m 5f
Gunsight Ridge won a good ground novice hurdle at Doncaster back in November. The 6-year-old returned from a 53-day break finishing 2nd of 15 on his handicap hurdle debut. The winner went in again at Newbury on Sunday so the form is solid. Good ground suits and the step should also be a positive for a former 3m point winner.
Hometown Boy won on his handicap hurdle debut last season and then improved on that form when finishing runner-up to McFabulous back at the same venue. Off for 350-days but if fully wound up has place claims.
Tedham looks on a decent mark based on his best form last seasonbut probably needs 3m to be seen at his best.
Major Dundee a former good ground bumper winnerhas only had four starts over hurdles. He’s returned this season with two runner-up efforts at Warwick & Doncaster. Back from a 60- day absence and on his handicap debut here. Trainer Alan King won this in 2017 and Major Dundee looks to have a good chance of giving the trainer another winner of the race.
Verdict: Tedham is on a good mark but probably needs 3m. Gunsight Ridge is a possible improver for the step up to 2m 5f and will like the good ground. However, preference is for handicap debutant Major Dundee who looks a decent price at the 13/2 available with Bet365.
1pt win – Major Dundee – 13/2 @ Bet365
The clutch of Grade 2 races on the Kempton card have not grabbed my attention betting wise. The Pendil Novices’ Chase (1:50) has only attracted four runners. The two other Grade 2 are much more interesting.
2:25 – The Adonis Juvenile Hurdle sees the Alan King trained Tritonic looks to boast his Triumph Hurdle claims with a win here. There are several runners making their hurdle debuts here. Paul Nicholls saddles Paso Doble who is having his first start for the trainer since moving from Jim Bolger. Dan Skelton also saddles a newcomer in John Locke who is having his first start since joining from Ralph Beckett. It will be interesting to see how both Paso Doble & John Locke fare here but they would have to be smart to beat Tritonic.
3:00 – The Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle has a smart looking Atholl Street heading the market. The Paul Nicholls trained 6-year-old is unbeaten on both starts over hurdles and looks a good prospect. It will take a good one to beat him here. He faces a couple of interesting rivals though in Irish raider Cape Gentlemen & Calico. The former looked a smart hurdles prospect when winning at Punchestown on his hurdling debut. The Irish Cesarewitch winner ran no sort of race when pulling up in a Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival, something was amiss that day and he’s surely a better horse than he was able to show at Leopardstown. Calico a smart performer on the flat when trained in Germany made a winning debut for Dan Skelton over hurdles at Ludlow last month. He could be smart prospect over hurdles and can go well here given the yard’s present form.
3:35 – Close Brothers Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m
This year’s renewal looks a competitive one and it’s attracted a larger than average number of 18 runners.
Cap Du Nord finished runner-up to Royale Pagaille over C&D at the Christmas Meeting and then finished third in the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster. Slight concern that might be better over slightly shorter than 3m but the drying ground is in the 8-year-old’s favour.
Al Dancer a good third in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase back in November before flopping when 5/1 favourite for the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup back at the same venue. He’s yet to race beyond 2m 5f but he shapes like he will stay 3m.
Clondaw Castle has improved for stepping up 2m 4f in the past 12 months. Winning at Warwick last February and started this season with an excellent 2nd of 12 in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree on his seasonal return. He then went on to win at Newbury (good). Stepped back into Graded company when 3rd of 8 in the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase before finishing runner-up to Master Tommytucker here last time. A mark of 154 will be tough to defy and he needs the step up to 3m to bring out a bit more improvement.
Slate House won the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase over C&D last December. Form slumped after that success but his 3rd of 6 at Wincanton last month was a step back in the right direction. Return to 3m will suit but his jumping needs to be a lot better than it has been.
Talkischeap was pulled up in this race last year. The 2019 Bet365 Gold Cup winner had had just two starts since this race last year, one on the flat at Southwell and then when third in a “Jumpers bumper” at Lingfield 26-days ago. Good ground suits the 9-year-old who is being aimed at the Grand National.
Young Wolf is very well suited to good ground and hasn’t finished out of the first two over fences on such going. Untested in this class of race or in a big field but he’s on a competitive mark and is 5-7 racing 3m+.
Black Corton finished runner-up in this race last year off 1lb higher. The normally solid jumper has failed to complete on his last two starts but the cheekpieces he wore last time have been removed. He’s been given a 78-day break to freshen up and the consistent 10-year-old can never be ruled out on good ground. A reproduction of last year’s effort gives him solid each way claims.
Fingerontheswitch is another well suited to a sound surface. He won over C&D last January and improved further to put in a career best effort when beaten just ½ length into second in the Sky Bet Chase, off today’s mark. Two poor efforts this season from the 11-year-old but those came on soft & heavy so his chance here rests on a return to better ground.
Mellow Ben took advantage of an easing handicap mark when bouncing back to form in finishing third behind Cap Du Nord (good) at Newbury two starts back. The 8-year-old looks well weighted with Cap Du Nord on that Newbury form. He well behind that one when fourth over C&D last time but the going was soft that day and all his career wins have come on good ground, as have his three best RPR’s. Yet to win beyond 2m 5 ½ f but he’s on a good mark and is another with each way claims.
Verdict: A few in with a chance here. Black Corton and Fingerontheswitch are C&D winners who will like the return today’s good ground. Young Wolf steps up in class but is another with each way claims on ground that suits. Clondaw Castle should stay 3m and if he does won’t be far away. Cap Du Nord is a solid form choice but I’m still to be convinced he’s as good over 3m, as he is over slightly shorter and he will do well to finish ahead of Mellow Ben on their running at Newbury.
1pt win – Clondaw Castle – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes
1pt each way – Mellow Ben – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Newcastle
3:15 – Vertem Eider Handicap Chase – 4m 1 ½ f
The Eider Chase is now the third longest race in the jumps calendar after the Grand National & Midlands Grand National. A field of twelve are set to go post for what will be a severe stamina test, even if the ground isn’t heavy.
David Bridgewater who saddled the 2014 Eider Chase winner, lost The Conditional last Sunday so it would if he could win this with Salty Boy. The 8-year-old should relish the step up to 4m+. He’s competing for favoritism with Sams Adventure here. Sams Adventure won the Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase at Haydock (heavy) with Salty Boy, 6 ¼ length behind in third. There shouldn’t be too much between the pair at the revised weights. Both have solid claims but I wonder if Sams Adventure would prefer even more testing ground.
Crosspark won this two years ago but is 15lb higher this time around. He’s returned to action this season in great form though, finishing runner-up on all four starts. He’s been beaten just a length on all four runs but has gone up 8lb for not winning. It will be a tough to defy top-weight of 11-12 and he might prefer slightly better ground.
The Dutchman a very useful handicap chaser when with Colin TIizzard, winning the valuable Peter Marsh Handicap Chase in January 2018. The 11-year-old has returned from 931- day break in good form and went very close to winning on his second start for Tristan Davidson at Haydock two starts back. Was in the process of running a big race when falling four out in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby on Boxing Day. If he stays, he can go close.
Springfield Fox looked a smart staying chaser when making all to win at Chepstow & Exeter early last year. He hasn’t built on the promise of his return over hurdles in December. The 8-year-old was never travelling and was pulled up in the Welsh Grand National (8/1) and never really got competitive at Wincanton 23-days ago. Hopes are pinned on the first time cheekpieces reviving him today and trainer Tom George’s runners are going better now. If and it’s a big if, he can get out in front, he hasn’t on either start this season over fences, he could easily bounce back to form here and if he does, I think he could win this.
Big River is a bit of enigma. There’s no doubt he’s got the ability to win a race like this and he ticks plenty of all important boxes such as going and distance. A winner at Kelso, a bit of a course specialist six of his seven career wins have come at the Scottish venue, last January off 2lb lower. He then was a strong finishing 5th of 23 in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Just the two starts this season and he ran better than his finishing position of 8th in the Welsh Grand National suggests on ground that was much quicker than the official going description of soft. High on the shortlist.
Strong Economy hails from the Ian Duncan yard who saddled Milborough to win this in 2015. The 9-year-old has been doing most of his running at Ayr and comes into the race on the back of two wins over fences at the Scottish venue. Looked a real stayer when winning over 3m 3f last time, now 2-5 since stepping up 3m +. After that success his trainer nominated this race as the horse’s target. The first time cheekpieces are applied today which could be a positive, as he can get behind in his races.
Verdict: If the first-time headgear has the desired effect and he can get out to the front SpringfieldFox is a danger to all. Strong Economy is a real slow old boat. He’s won his last two and the first time cheekpieces could eke out the improvement needed to win this. Big River has the ability to land this if on a going day.
1pt each way – Strong Economy – 14/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
1pt win – Big River – 15/2 @ Bet365
Cheers
John