Hi all,
A genuinely exciting weekend ahead. There are big races on Saturday at Ascot, Haydock & Wincanton. The action continues Sunday with the rescheduled Betfair’s Super Saturday’ Newbury card and at Market Rasen the Listed Sydney Banks Hurdle, normally run at Huntingdon, which was won last season by Shishkin.
In this long Saturday preview I have had a look at the seven races being covered by ITV.
Let’s get started at Ascot where the feature race is Grade 1 Betfair Ascot Chase (3:35). There are also some good supporting races with the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase and two competitive handicaps the highlights.
Ascot
The going at Ascot is being described as soft, heavy in places. A small amount of rain is forecast for Friday but Saturday is set to be mainly dry and mild.
1:50 – Bateaux London Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) – 3m
Early ante post favourites The Big Breakaway & If the Cap Fits are not among the final six declarations. Just 9lb separates the six on RPR’s which shows it remains a competitive race.
Remastered has won both his starts in novice company and looks capable of making the step up into graded company and the David Pipe yard among the winners.
Full Back is another who has won his last two starts over fences. Both wins have come on soft ground and he’s improved for going up in distance to around 3m.
Demachine won his first two starts over the larger obstacles, including a competitive novices’ handicap chase over C&D. He was a shade disappointing when only 3rd of 8 at Newbury 52-days ago but he’s had a wind-op since and he remains capable of better.
Verdict: Probably not the best Reynoldstown in terms of a class but it’s a competitive race. Remastered and Full Back must be respected but I think the Demachine can show he’s better than his Newbury run and is one of my strongest fancies today.
2pts win – Demachine – 100/30 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
2:25 – “My Oddsboost” On Betfair Swinley Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Listed Race) – 3m
Twelve go to post for this year’s renewal but it may pay to focus on four.
Jerrysback has only had three starts since finishing third in the National Hunt Chase at the 2019 Cheltenham Festival. The last two have been here. He finished a 3 length. 3rd of 10 behind Regal Encore, gets a 9lb pull with that one, last season over C&D. Was doing his best work at the finish when third behind Dashel Drasher 28-days ago. That was his first start for over a year and he’s entitled to have benefited for it. Stablemate Musical Slave has a chance but he needs to jump better than he has on his last two starts.
Cobolobo improved for making the running when winning at Exeter two starts back. Couldn’t make the running but built on that performance when 2nd of 11 to an improver over C&D last time. Nudged up 2lb and in a better race today but shouldn’t be far away.
Yaltari finished just 2 ¼ lengths behind Cobolobo in that race, gets a 2lb pull here. The 10-year-old finished third in the Reynoldstown at this meeting two seasons back and shaped last time like he was coming back into form.
Captain Chaos hails from the inform Dan Skelton yard. The 10-year-old ran a cracker from the front for the second year running when 4th of 13 in the Classic Chase at Warwick last time. The reapplication of the blinkers played a big part in that performance. He’s only 1lb higher than when winning at Doncaster 12 months ago.
Newtide is less experienced than his rivals which makes him of interest here. He’s only had the four starts over fences winning his first two last season. He beat this year’s Welsh Grand National Winner Secret Reprieve on his chase debut before taking advantage of a last fence fall by Boldmere to win the Grade 2 Towton Novices’ Chase at Wetherby. Only third of 12 on his seasonal reappearance at Haydock back in November but he’s had a wind-op since. The Kim Bailey yard has been back among the winners in the past 7-days and he’s 3-9 with his runners at Ascot this season, so anything he runs must be respected.
Verdict: The claims of Newtide are growing on me given his yards form. Captain Chaos should make a bold bid from the front. Yaltari seems to be working back to form and can get into the money Jerrysback was an eyecatcher here last time and will surely land one a handicap like this.
1pt win – Captain Chaos – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
1pt win – Jerrysback – 7/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:00 – Betfair Cheltenham Free Bet Pot Builder Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m 3 ½ f
Sixteen runners have been declared but I’m not sure it’s a race with a great deal of depth and just four have really caught my eye.
Good Man Pat has returned to hurdling this season and has been running with credit. Last time out he finished a close-up 2nd of 5 at Newbury 53-days ago. Has been nudged up 2lb but should run well again.
Dans Le Vent is another who has returned to hurdling this season. Winning at Hereford on his return from a 396-day absence and then did best of those coming from off the pace when 4th of 12 over C&D 28-days ago. Has a bit to find with Arrivederci (2nd) & Kateson (3rd) on that running but in a stronger run race has a good chance of reversing places with those two.
Kepagge won his first three starts under rules last season and looked set for a good season. Fourth on his seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham better was expected in a Pertemps Qualifier at Warwick last month and the 7-year-old was still going ok just behind the leaders when getting badly hampered on the home turn. That was his race run and he eventually finished a well beaten 6th.
Kaizer is 1lb out of the weights but made a bold bid from the front when 2nd of 8 over 3m 2f at Musselburgh last time. The Scottish raider is 4lb higher here but remains on a workable mark and can’t be totally ruled out. Yard had an easy handicap hurdle winner at Kelso yesterday.
Verdict: Kepagge ran better than his final position suggests at Warwick last time. Dans Le Vent finished 4th over C&D last time and a stronger run race will suit. Good Man Pat has been running well over hurdles this season and must be respected.
1pt win – Dans Le Vent – 11/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
1pt each way – Good Man Pat – 14/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
3:35 – Betfair Ascot Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 5f
Just the five go to post for Ascot’s feature race but they include 2019 winner Cyrname and last year’s winner Riders Onthe Storm. There looks like there could be of plenty of pace on with Cyrname, stablemate Master Tommytucker and Dashel Drasher all liking to making the running.
Cyrname had been three from three here at around the distance prior to falling at the last in this race 12 months ago, was well beaten at the time. Made a winning return to action in the Charlie Hall Chase before a lifeless run in the King George VI at Kempton. Paul Nicholls adds the first-time headgear and he’s the one to beat.
Master Tommytucker must be respected after his recent Kempton Grade 2 success where he Riders Onthe Storm well beaten back in third.
Riders Onthe Storm is 2-2 over C&D but hasn’t been in the same form since winning this race last season and has questions to answer after last month’s Kempton run.
Dashel Drasher and Benny’s King were first and second in a competitive C&D handicap last month. The former is 3-3 at Ascot and although there shouldn’t be much between the pair at the revised weights Dashel Drasher is probably more progressive of the pair.
An intriguing race but if Cyrname is at his best, he wins. Doesn’t he?
Wincanton
3:18 – Betway Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2) – 1m 7 ½ f
Song For Someone bids for back to back wins in the race. He’s in good form having won both this season’s starts but he faces a couple of serious rivals in Goshen and Navajo Pass.
Goshen had the Triumph Hurdle at his mercy when falling at the last at last seasons Cheltenham Festival but he disappointed on two flat starts in the autumn and was well behind Song For Someone in the International Hurdle last time.
Navajo Pass comes into the race looking for the hat trick after wins at Musselburgh and then when making all to win a Grade 2 at Haydock last time.
A good race to watch but not a betting one for me.
Haydock
The going at Haydock at the time of writing (Friday afternoon) is being described as soft, heavy in places. One thing we do know about the track is that it will be testing and the 3m 4 ½ f of the Grand National Trial will take some getting.
2:05 – William Hill Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2) – 3m ½ f
It looks a strong renewal of this year’s Rendlesham Hurdle. The one I fancied Thomas Derby is sadly not among the entries but trainer Ollie Murphy does saddle ante post favourite Itchy Feet. The 8-year-old returns to hurdling for the first time since October 2019. Third in that year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle he’s been racing over fences like the step to 3m will suit.
The favourite gets a handy 6lb from last years winner Emiton and last season Stayers Hurdle winner Lisnagar Oscarwho is having his first start since a wind-up. Emiton finished fourth in the Stayer Hurdle and has 5 ¾ lengths to find with Lisnagar Oscar on Cheltenham form. The pair are the class horses of the race and must be respected.
On the Blind Side has looked a lot happier returning to the smaller obstacles this season. A winner on his seasonal return at Cheltenham. He finished runner up to McFabulous in the rearranged Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle at Kempton two starts back before showing a good battling attitude to get the better of Lil Rockerfeller on the run-in at Market Rasen just seven days later.
Main Fact won the valuable Betfair Exchange Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle over C&D two starts back but was outclassed on his step into Grade 1 company when last of the seven finishers behind Paisley Park in the Long Walk Hurdle.
Third Wind was one placed and 2 ½ lengths behind Main Fact in the Betfair Exchange Stayers’ but finished two places in front of that one in the Long Walk. There shouldn’t be much between the pair on their Haydock running. Fourth in last seasons Pertemps Final he’s already qualified for that race again and this could be a prep for Cheltenham. If the eight do stand their ground he could repay each way support.
Verdict: Lisnagar Oscar is the best horse in the race and if the wind-op has had the desired effect can go close although he may need a strongly run race to be seen at his best. Third Win can get into the places but this run should put him spot on for next months Pertemps Final.
1pt win – Third Wind – 7/1 @ Coral
2:40 – William Hill Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 4 ½ f
Just the nine go to post for this marathon test but you can make a case for all of them.
Improving last time out winners Notachance & Enqarde head the betting. The former is up 7lb for winning Warwick’s Classic Chase. The latter is up 8lb for winning at Ascot but has potential for further improvement stepped up from 3m.
Sojourn returned from a 11-month layoff to win at Carlisle (3m 2f) in November, beating a subsequent winner, and then went onto finish runner-up here in the Tommy Whittle last time. The 8-year-old has only had four starts over fences and is remains capable of more improvement.
Lord Du Mesnill won here twice last season, including C&D and also finished runner-up in this race 12 months ago off 2lb lower. Not hit form yet this season and was well beaten in the Welsh Grand National on his last start. Needs to bounce back here but could well do.
Potters Legend has been in good form this winter winning a veterans’ chase at Warwick on his return and last time out finished runner-up to Gold Cup contender Royale Pagaille here in the Peter Marsh Chase, albeit he was beaten 16 lengths.
The Two Amigos finished third to Notachance at Bangor on his seasonal reappearance, beaten seven lengths and is 12lb better off now. Jumped superbly when runner-up in the Welsh Grand National. Deserves to win a race like this but often finds one too good and has gone two years since his last success. Usual jockey Matt Griffiths is riding at Ascot so James Bowen takes the ride on the 9-year-old today.
Achille was beaten ½ length into second by Notachance at Warwick last time. He gets a 3lb pull but the winner could be more progressive. That was his first start for 427-days so there could be more to come from the 11-year-old. Trainer Venetia Williams has saddled the winner of this race twice in the past 10-years.
Ramses De Teillee beat Yala Enki at Cheltenham in November and finished runner-up in this race two years ago, off 3lb lower. The 9-year-old has been well beaten on his last starts though in the Becher Chase at Aintree and the Welsh Grand National. It will be a tough ask to win this off top-weight but a useful conditional takes off a handy 5lb and the David Pipe yard is among the winners again. Must be respected if back to his best here.
Verdict: Ramses De Teillee is top weight for a reason and a handy 5lb is taken off his back. The Two Amigos deserves to win a race like this. The improving Notachance and Enqarde have obvious claims and Achille won’t be far away if building on last month’s Warwick run.
1pt each way – Ramses De Teillee – 14/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places 1/5 odds)
1pt win – Achille – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
It’s going to be a tough day but I’m hopeful there a few winners to be found in this preview.
Cheers
John