Hi all,
Dawson’s City ran a blinder at Exeter he just found trying to give 20lb to the eventual winner to much in the final few strides and was beaten a head.
A cracking day’s racing. It looks a tremendous renewal of the Grade 1 Betfair Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown with the returning Altior facing five rivals. There’s also a high-class card at Aintree with a return to racing over the Grand National fences for the first time in 12 months.
Sandown
The going was testing on both chase & hurdle tracks at Sandown on Friday so you need to factor that into your betting today. Two Grade 1’s begin the ITV coverage from Sandown
1:50 – Planteur At Chapel Stud Henry VIII Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 1m 7 ½ f
There may only be six runners but It looks a strong renewal of the race with all six runners being unbeaten over the larger obstacles.
Allmankind made all to make a winning chase debut at Warwick. It was an impressive performance he jumped well and ran out a comfortable winner. The well beaten runner-up Zanza won a handicap chase at Newbury last Saturday off a mark of 138.
Paul Nicholls is 4 winners from 13 runners 31% + 7.36 6 places with his runners in the race since 2008. He saddles Ffos Las beginners chase winner Hitman and equally impressive Wincanton novices’ handicap chase winner Tamaroc Du Mathan. Hitman is the choice of jockey Harry Cobden and looks the most likely of the pair but I did like the quality of Tamaroc Du Mathan’s jumping and shouldn’t be dismissed.
Eldorado Allen has had one more start over fences than other three mentioned. Jumped slickly when winning a Grade 2 novices’ chase at Cheltenham three weeks ago. Highly regarded by connections, trainer Colin Tizzard described him as the “best two-miler we’ve had” after his Cheltenham success.
Ga Law has won all three starts over fences. Won a Wincanton Grade 2 last time, over 2m 4f. The drop back shouldn’t be an inconvenience for the 4-year-old on this ground which will bring his stamina into play.
Phoenix Way showed the better turn of foot to beat two rivals in a Warwick novices’ chase on his return to action. A winner over 3m 1f over hurdles last season he showed at Warwick that he doesn’t lack tactical speed.
Verdict: I wasn’t going to have a selection in the race, as it more a race to watch than bet in, but the at the prices Tamaroc Du Mathan would tempt me in.
2:25 – Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) – 1m 7 ½ f
The 2018 winner Altior and 2017 winner Politologue both take their place in the line-up and neither need any introduction.
Rouge Vif romped away with a Cheltenham handicap chase success on his seasonal return. He’s going the right way but the soft ground is a worry.
Greaneteen is another improving chaser who won the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter on his seasonal return. The 6-year-old should improve further with that run under his belt and shouldn’t have any problems with the ground.
Irish raider Castlegrace Paddy has won both his last two starts in Grade 2 company at Navan. Yet to prove he’s a Grade 1 horse but the more testing the ground the better for the 9-year-old who shouldn’t be disgraced.
Verdict: Altior is out due to the testing ground which is a big shame as far as the race is concerned. Like the novice chase it’s probably not really a betting race but It may pay to take a small punt on Castlegrace Paddy with Altior out and possibly Rouge Vif to as his trainer will walk the track before racing.
1pt win – Castlegrace Paddy – 12/1 – Gen
3:00 – Betfair Exchange Back And Lay London National Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 5f
Just the seven are set to meet the starter which is a bit disappointing but it’s probably not surprising given it clashes with the Becher Chase at Aintree.
Recent Southern National winner, Cloudy Glen heads the betting. He’s up 11lbfor that Fontwell success but remains the one to beat. Trainer Venetia Williams has her horses in excellent form.
Classic Ben, a course winner over three miles early last year was a good 2nd of 18 at Exeter, first time up this season. He races off the same mark as for his last win and although he’s got prove he stays this far he shapes like he should.
Crosspark won the Eider Chase two seasons back and then went onto finish runner-up in the Scottish Grand National. Last season was a wash out, running poorly on both starts. Returned to action with good performances at Chepstow (beaten a nose) and was beaten less than a length here over 3m. The step up in distance is a big positive for the 10-year-old but the easing of the ground would be a concern.
Shanroe Santos ran a decent race when 3rd of 7 at Huntingdon first time up, 25-days ago. His jumping was a bit rusty that day and needs to jump better here. Now 7lb below his last winning mark, stays well and goes on soft ground. Would be a good each way play if there were the eight runners.
Verdict: Cloudy Glen is a worthy favourite but at the prices you can let him win. Classic Ben is solid enough, Crosspark can win off this mark but the ground will be plenty soft enough for the 10-year-old. Shanroe Santos is back down to a winnable mark. He needs to jump better than he did last time but he’s got his ground.
1pt win – Shanroe Santos – 11/1 @ Paddy Power
3:35 – Betfair Exchange December Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) (Class 1) – 2m
Benson has won his last two starts both at Hereford on good to firm & good to soft. Handicap hurdle debut but looks on fair mark and won’t be far away if handling the more testing ground.
Mister Coffey was an easy winner of a C&D handicap hurdle last month. Up 10lb for that success but is progressive and the right favourite.
Totterdown returns to hurdling after two attempts over fences. Twice a C&D winner, and his form on heavy is 1131.
Jolly’s Cracked might be an 11-year-oldand four of his five career wins have come at Ascot but he’s on a winnable handicap mark. Ran well for a long way on his return to action at Aintree (2m 4f). He goes on the ground, two miles his trip and trainer Harry Fry has booked Kevin Broga to take off another 7lb. Plenty to like about his chance.
Galice Macalo is a highly regarded mare whose won both her starts this season. Handicap hurdle debut off what looks a workable mark. May not be the most straight forward but is clearly talented. Softest ground she’s run on but if she handles it can go well.
Nickolson hasn’t lived up to his trainer’s lofty expectations yet but he remains with some potential and is going handicapping for the first time.
Verdict: Mister Coffey is 10lb higher than when winning over C&D on his seasonal reappearance but that may not stop the progressive 5-year-old who could be graded horse. We may not have seen the best of Nickolson and the yard is better form now. Benson is another capable of going close on his handicap debut and could take advantage if the favourite fails to perform.
1pt win – Benson – 9/1 – Gen
Aintree
1:30 – William Hill Becher Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 2f
Kimberlite Candy and Walk In The Mill are at the front of the betting and you can understand why. The latter bids for a third successive win while the former looked an improved handicap chaser when winning the Classic Chase at Warwick back in January and was a leading fancy for the cancelled Grand National.
Le Breuil was 7th in last year’s race but he’s does get a 17lb turnaround in the weights with the winner. His form also ties in with Kimberlite Candy and he now gets 27lb from that one compared with when they met at Warwick. Trainer Ben Pauling said the 8-year-old “wasn’t right last season”. If he’s back to his form of two seasons back he will surely win races off a mark of 141.
Vieux Lion Rouge (16/1) who won this race in 2016 can never be discounted at his preferred course and distance and has each way claims. He’s one of two possible from the David Pipe yard. The other being recent Cheltenham winner Ramses De Teille (8/1). The disappointed in the 2019 National but looks the type for the race.
Smooth Stepper won the Grand National Trial at Haydock in February, off 6lb lower, and advertised his well-being when 5th of 10 at Sandown last month.
Coo Star Sivola is a bit of a ‘dark’ horse. The 8-year-old was a very progressive handicap chaser two seasons back winning the Ultima Handicap Chase at the 2018 Cheltenham Festival. Last season was a bit of a wash out for him but there were encouraging signs when he finished 5th of 13 at Bangor on his return to action. If building on that performance he’s on an attractive mark.
Verdict: I could easily go for five or six in the race. Walk In the Mill has a good chance of third successive win in the race. Le Breuil ran well on his seasonal return at Kelso and is back down to a good mark. The price has now gone on Coo Star Sivola who was 16/1 early in the week. Smooth Stepper has each way claims if his jumping holds up. Both Pipe horses Ramses De Teille & Vieux Lion Rouge can go well and Tom Scudamore opts for the former.
1pt each way – Smooth Stepper – 25/1 @ Betfair Sportsbook (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
2:05 – williamhill.com Best Odds Guaranteed Fillies’ Juvenile Hurdle (Listed Race) – 2m 1f
Juvenile hurdle races don’t really get my juices flowing. The ex-German trained filly Army Of One makes her stable/hurdle debut for Gavin Cromwell. The Irish trainer is 2-3 +11 3 placed with his runners in the race since 2012.
2:40 – (Mildmay) William Hill Many Clouds Chase (Grade 2) – 3m 1f
Just the five go to post but only three are serious contenders. Gold Cup runner-up Santini and last years race winner Native River are at the frontof the betting closely followed by Frodon. The latter has the benefit of race fitness with both Santini & Native River makes their seasonal reappearance. It’s not really a betting race for me but if Native River & Frodon take each other from the front it could set up the race for Santini who needs a strongly run race at this distance.
3:15 – (Grand National) William Hill Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 5f
Nineteen have been declared for the second race over the National fences.
There has been plenty of money for the Venetia Williams trained Didero Vallis in the past 24 hours. Soft ground suits and he finished 5th in this race as 6-year-old. Back over his right trip and looks set for an inform yard.
Huntsmans Son won at Wetherby on his return to action in good style but the soft ground is a concern
Lord Du Mesnil was an improving staying handicap chaser last season. However, his improvement came over 3m+. A good jumper, these fences shouldn’t pose any problems for the 7-year-old but the drop back in trip is a worry.
The Nigel Twiston – Davies pair of Flying Angel & Crievehill are contenders. The later was 4th in this race last year and is back down to his last winning mark. Crievehill is another on a competitive mark and ran well for a long way on his return in the Old Roan Chase here 41-days ago.
Alan King also saddles a pair in Senior Citizen & Dingo Dollar. The former has just come out of the novice chase company. A winner at Newton Abbot in September. He then just failed to give 10lbs to Espoir De Romay at Huntingdon last time out which looks good form. He’s 2-5 over fences and open to further improvement but does lack experience. Dingo Dollar a good jumper of a fence on his day has been a bit of a disappointment in the last two seasons but he’s dropped down the weights and the drop in trip could suit.
Might Bite is on the decline but showed plenty of spark at Ascot on his return. He will either really take to these fences or he won’t. If he does, he’s a very well handicapped horse.
Verdict: The price has gone on Didero Vallis. There could still be some juice in Senior Citizen’s price, although he does lack some experience for race like this, and stablemate Dingo Dollar.
1pt win – Senior Citizen – 11/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
1pt win – Dingo Dollar – 12/1 Gen
Cheers
John