Hi all,
Jukebox Jive 11/1 (BOG) was a decisive winnerof the valuable handicap hurdle at Navan to provide a good profit on the day and a good start to the weekend.
Ascot & Haydock are my focus this Saturday. The race of the day is Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle (2:25) at Ascot. Which sees a rematch between Thyme Hill & Paisley Park who finished first and second at Newbury three weeks ago. Add in the improving Main Fact & Roksana who bounced back to her best when making a winning return in a Grade 2 at Wetherby and you have the makings of a pre-Christmas cracker of a race. Not a race I will be having a bet in though.
The feature race of a seven-race card at Haydock is the Class 2 Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase (2:40).
I’ve already advised four selections ante post for the two big handicaps at Ascot and they all run which is a good start.
Ascot
1:50 – Benny’s King was beaten just a neck over C&D in January. Satisfactory return when 5th of 8 at Aintree (4/1 joint favourite) 42-days ago. Just 2lb higher than in January, his stamina should come into play on the testing ground and looks the one to go with.
Smarty Wild is one of the least experienced in the field having had just two starts over fences. Found things happening to quick on the drop back to the minimum trip at Wetherby last time. The step back in distance will suit and his jumping will hopefully improve for it too, as it needs to if he’s to win.
Early Du Lemo returned from a mammoth 689-days lay off when beaten just a neck by a stablemate at Sandown 15-days ago. Stamina a slightly doubt on this ground, as is the dreaded ‘bounce factor’ coming into play but if not, he’s got to be considered a contender. Stablemate Not Another Muddle is another in the mix and is on a winnable mark. He’s only had one run, at the Cheltenham Festival, since April 2019 but he’s gone well fresh in the past and all his four career wins have come on soft ground, yet to race on heavy.
1pt win – Benny’s King – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Not Another Muddle – 11/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
Now the two races where I have already put-up selections. There are no further selections for the Silver Cup (3:00). However, I have a couple that interest me in the Betfair Exchange Trophy (3:35).
3:35 – I have already put-up Oakley and Lightly Squeeze each way and I’m still happy with both. Since the final entries were announced there’s a couple to catch the eye.
I was hoping Arrivederci would go for a lesser race at Haydock where he would have likely gone off favourite. However, it’s interesting that Jonjo O’Neill opts for this better race. A winner at Wincanton in January and on his seasonal reappearance at Wetherby. Sent off the 4/1 for a race at Haydock last time and was still going well when coming down three out. The 5-year-old gets the first-time tongue tie. I tipped him at Haydock and I can’t let him go unbacked here.
There’s a thought that Irish horses are better handicapped than their UK counterpoints as evidenced by Chatham Street Lad’s win in the Caspian Gold Cup last Saturday. Thus, you can’t rule out the Peter Fahey trained Belfast Banter. A winner of a soft ground maiden hurdle at Galway in October. He improved on that effort when finishing runner-up, a Punchestown novice hurdle 35-days ago. Handicap debut off 129 looks interesting and he could go well.
1pt win – Arrivederci – 15/2 @ Bet365
Haydock
It’s going to be survival of the fittest at Haydock on what looks like will be almost unraceable ground.
2:05 – Albert’s Back a winner at Wetherby on his seasonal return 35-days ago. The 6-year-old is up 5lb for that win which doesn’t look harsh of more concern would be the step up to 2m 3f on testing ground.
Mcgowans Pass has finished runner-up on his last three starts since winning over two mile at Ayr (heavy) in January. Put up a career best effort on RPR’s when beaten a short head back at Ayr on his return to action. Nudged up 3lb but will love the testing ground although 2m 3f might stretch his stamina.
1pt win – Mcgowans Pass – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:40 – Hill Sixteen bolted up over fences at Ffos Las (Heavy)two starts back and followed up over hurdles at Newbury (good) 22-days ago. Up 12lb for his Ffos Las win and must be respected on the hat trick bid.
Salty Boy twice a winner over hurdles when trained in Ireland. Has yet to win on eight starts over fences but shaped with promise when a staying on 4th of 7 at Sandown on his stable debut in November. Not as good at Ascot last time when his jumping lacked fluency. Get’s the first time cheekpieces which should help his jumping. Three miles on heavy ground would be a bit of an unknown but he looks like he can win a race of his present mark.
Lord Napier a four-time winner over hurdles including a valuable soft ground 3m handicap hurdle at Sandown in March 2019. Shaped better on his second start over fences at Aintree than he had done on his first and built on that promise when runner-up at Chepstow two weeks ago. It was heavy that day so he shouldn’t have any problems with going and was a strong stayer over hurdles. Looks on a workable mark over fences but given his inexperience over the larger obstacles his jumping will be tested.
1pt win – Lord Napier – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John