Hi all,
Two days of competitive racing with ITV Racing covering seven races from Ascot, Newmarket & Haydock today and on Sunday eight races from Salisbury, Thirsk, and the Curragh.
No weather problems to complicate today’s racing as it’s set to be hot and sunny across the UK with the going likely to be on the quick side at the three tracks ITV are covering.
I have selections from Ascot, Newmarket & Cork. Let’s begin this betting preview at Ascot.
Ascot
1:50 – Equitation won a Class 4 handicap over C&D last September, off 3lb lower. That win came on good to firm so no problem with anticipated underfoot conditions for the 6-year-old. He’s improved with each of his three starts this season and ran well in finishing runner-up in Class 2 company at Newmarket 13-days ago. The return to 6f is a positive and he looks set for a good run.
Dazzling Dan was an improving sprint handicapper last season winning twice at Newmarket. On the last occasion, in August, he beat recent Group 1 Diamond Jubilee winner Oxted. The 4-year-old hasn’t been at his very best on subsequent but there were hints that he was coming back to his best last time when 5th at Newbury 20-days ago. Now 1lb below his last winning mark. He looks to be hitting form at the right time.
0.5pts each way – Equitation – 8/1 @ Bet365
0.5pts each way – Dazzling Dan – 13/2 @ Bet365
2:25 – Another competitive Class 2 handicap, this time over the straight mile.
Game Player returns from a 372-day break. A winner over 7f at Lingfield back in May of last year. He ran well on three subsequent starts to think he’s on a workable mark off 95 and if trainer Roger Varian has him fully tuned up looks capable of going close.
Cape Francois took advantage of declining handicap mark when winning at Haydock on his seasonal reappearance. Disappointed badly back at the same venue on soft ground three weeks ago. The stiff mile will suit and although the top-weight is 5lb above his last winning mark he needs respecting.
Via Serendipity is having his first start for Charlie Fellowes. The 6-year-old has won over the round mile and run well here on the straight course in the past. He’s now 12lb below his last winning turf mark two years ago. To well handicapped to ignore if the stable switch has had the desired effect. The trainer is 5 winners from 17 runners 29% +100.5 6 placed 35% with his handicap runners at Ascot on the straight track.
0.5pts each way – Via Serendipity – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes
0.5pts each way – Game Player – 6/1 @ Bet365
3:00 – Australis has been a steadily improving staying handicapper on the all-weather and is sure to be popular after his runner-up effort in the Northumberland Plate last month.
Kaloor has been bought along steadily by new trainer David Menuisier. He’s been stepped up in trip from a mile to 1m 6f and shaped well last time in finishing 3rd of 7 at Sandown 18-days ago. The step up to 2m shouldn’t be a problem as he was doing his best work at the finish at Sandown.
Eddystone Rock won over C&D 12 months ago and then went onto win at the York Ebor Meeting. He’s 1lb above his last winning mark but Cieren Fallon takes off a handy 3lb. If the 8-year-old is in the same form as a year ago he won’t be far away at the finish.
0.5pts each way – Eddystone Rock -14/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Kaloor – 9/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
3:35 – Jeremiah did us a favour when winning over C&D 13-days ago. Up 6lb now but he could progress further now he looks to have found his optimum trip. The blinker he wore last time stay on and he can go well again.
Look Closely also won a C&D handicap 14-days ago. He’s up 8lb for that success and in better race which makes life tougher for the 4-year-old but he goes well on good to firm ground and has only had six career starts.
Fox Vardy thrashed three rivals at Newmarket two starts back and then went on to run just as well when 3rd of 10 at York 30-days ago. Cieren Fallon has been booked to take off 3lb which put the 4-year-old right in the mix if in the same form as last time.
Caradoc was an improving handicapper at 1m 2f last season winning three times and seemed to stay 1m 4f when 3rd of 16 in a valuable handicap at York last August. The 5-year-old shaped with promise when 6th at Epsom on is seasonal return but was a shade disappointing when only 9th in the John Smith’s Handicap at York last time. Unexposed over 1m 4f he will like the quick ground.
0.5pts each way – Jeremiah – 11/2 @ Paddy Power (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
0.5pts each way – Fox Vardy – 5/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Newmarket
4:00 – Al Rufaa, a comfortable C&D winner 15-days ago will be a hot favourite to land the hat trick in this Class 2 handicap. He’s clearly thriving but a 12lb rise in the weights could catch up out in a better race.
Tomfre is 2 from 3 here, including over C&D, and hasn’t had the best of luck in the run on his last three starts. The handicapper has dropped the 3-year-old 2lb since his last run at Goodwood last Saturday which means he’s just 1lb higher than when beaten a short head at Sandown three starts back.
Bear Force One bounced back to form when winning over a mile at Newbury 30-days ago. Drop back to 7f shouldn’t be a problem and although he’s up 5lb for his last success looks set for another good run here.
Top weight Fox Champion won the German 2000 Guineas last spring and put in a career best on RPR’s when finishing third to Too Darn Hot in the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat at Deauville last July. However, his form has tailed off since and the 4-year-old needs the drop to handicap company and step back up to 7f to provoke a return to form. If they do, he would be a danger to all.
0.5pts each way – Tomfre – 5/1 @ Coral
4:35 – Evening Sun has clearly improved from two to three having won a novice on the Rowley course on his seasonal return before finishing third in a hot Ascot handicap behind Tsar 14-days ago. Obvious claims here and looks the one to beat.
Laser Show was running on the dirt in Meydan over the winter and shaped with promise back on turf when 4th of 10 over C&D 28-days ago. That was his first start after a gelding operation and the cheekpieces he wore then are retained.
Ajax Tavern & Duesenberg were third and six respectably in a Doncaster handicap last month. The former has run gone onto run disappointingly at Ascot. Duesenberg was giving away race fitness at Doncaster and has a good chance of finishing ahead of his rival here. He seemed to handle the good to firm ground at Doncaster and isn’t without a chance if doing so again.
1pt win – Duesenberg – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
Cork
3:05 – Goodnight Girl a three-time winner over 6f when trained in England’ shaped with promise on her first start for Sarah Lynam when 5th of 18 at the Curragh 29-days ago. She showed plenty of speed that day so the drop to the minimum trip looks worth a go. All her wins have come on good to firm so the drier the ground the better her chance.
Elzaamone a winner over 5f at the Curragh two starts back almost defied a 15lb rise in the weights back at the same venue when just got in the final strides 13-days ago. Just 1lb higher here and the 3-year-old remains on the up.
Laugh A Minute’s stamina ran out on soft ground over 7f at Galway 6-days ago. Drops back to 5f here but the top-weight has a touch of class and can’t be discounted with Gavin Ryan taking off 3lb.
Chocquinto is the least exposed runner in the field having just had the three career starts. The 3-year-old won a 5f Curragh maiden at 150/1 13-days ago. That success was clearly an improved effort from the filly who make her handicap debut off a workable mark if that win wasn’t a flash in the pan.
0.5pts each way – – Goodnight Girl – 16/1 @ Coral (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
0.5pts each way – Elzaamone – 7/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Cheers
John