Hi all,
A good enough day yesterday with Tresorier a good winner at the Curragh and Quizical & Ubuntu running into the places. A profitable day and hopefully another one today.
Normally this Saturday is weak on the betting front. The recent rain means soft is the order of the day at most tracks and plenty of small fields for the ITV races. There could be even more non-runners this morning as a few trainers are saying their horses won’t run if the ground is too soft.
Today’s preview is rather short for a Saturday.
Newmarket
2:45 – Abstemious’ best two RPR’s have come on soft ground so no problem with the going for the 3-year-old. Found 6f on quick ground to short when 5th at Pontefract 15-days ago and looks worth another attempt at 7f on his favoured ground.
Ascension a winner at Salisbury (good to soft) & Newcastle last season made a promising return to action when a close-up 3rd of 8 at Sandown back in June before. Possibly a combination of good to firm ground and a quick return to action too much when last of four at Newmarket 15-days later. Has been gelded since that poor run and returns from a 62-day break.
Verdict: At the prices I just prefer Abstemious, who hopefully will be given a forward ride, over Ascension who remains capable of better than he showed at the Rowley Course last time.
1pt win – Abstemious – 7/1 @ William Hill
3:20 – The consistent Moon King was well placed to win his first five starts as a 3-year-old and wasn’t disgraced on his final two runs in better races last Autumn. Made a winning return to action at Haydock in June on his first go at 2m before and may have found the race coming to quick when down the field in the 2m 4f Ascot Stakes just 8-days later. Struggled when only 9th in the Marsh Cup at Newbury 41-days ago. But the first-time blinkers are applied today and a prominent ride back at 1m 6f could prove ideal for the 4-year-old who loves the mud.
1pt win – Moon King – 9/2 – Gen
Goodwood
2:25 – I’m happy to take a chance with the returning Milltown Star. The 3-year-old improved markedly on his final two juvenile starts when finishing runner-up in a valuable 7f Newmarket nursery (soft) and winning a heavy ground Listed race at Chantilly 284-days ago. No easy task off a mark of 100 but he’s been gelded and James Doyle has been booked for the ride.
1pt each way – Milltown Star – 12/1 @ Bet365
Windsor
2:40 – Sextant ran like the run was needed when 5th of 7 in the Geoffrey Freer at Newbury 15-days ago. The 5-year-old has a few lbs. to find with principals but he’s well suited to a small field, seems effective on soft ground and did win a handicap over C&D last summer.
Alounak isn’t the most consistent of horses. He’s disappointed on his last two starts, although his last run can be excused on account of the good to firm ground. A reproduction of his 2nd of 9 in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes would make him hard to beat here.
Le Don De Vie had run well when 4th in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot and when occupying the same position in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock. Put in a career best when third in a 1m 4f Group 3, at Goodwood, 29-days ago. Today’s slight drop in trip and sharp track should suit the 4-year-old who’s effective on soft ground.
Verdict: On a going day Alounak would win this. Le Don De Vie is improving and could be suited by today’s C&D. However, at the prices I have a slight preference for previous C&D winner Sextant who will be sharper for his recent Newbury return.
1pt win – Sextant – 8/1 @ Bet365
There you have it, short and sweet.
ITV racing are covering seven races from Goodwood & Perth on Sunday so let’s hope the field sizes hold up better.
Cheers
John