Hi all,
The rain arrived at Royal Ascot. Fortunately, the meeting passed a precautionary lunchtime inspection and meant a profit on the day. Let’s hope we can end the meeting with another profitable day. It’s been a tough meeting and one of the hardest to get a handle for a few years so I’m pleased to be still in with a chance of making a small profit on the week.
There were ton of non-runners on Friday due to the softening ground and I expect plenty more tomorrow.
Royal Ascot – Day 5
Day five gets underway with the Listed Chesham Stakes (2:30) and the feature race is the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes (4:20).
2:30 – Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) – 7f
The Aidan O’Brien trained Port Lonsdale looks sure to be popular with punters after his win in a Curragh maiden 17-days ago. The ground was yielding at the Curragh but if he handles today’s softer ground, he’s the one to beat.
Charlie Appleby saddled Pinatubo to win this in 2019 and he’s got a live contender in New Science who made a winning racecourse debut at Yarmouth (good to soft) last month. He’s open to more improvement and looks the main threat to the favourite. A son of Lope De Vega there’s hope in the pedigree that he will handle more testing ground.
3:05 – Jersey Stakes (Group 3) – 7f
The bookies are going 11/2 the field. Ante post favourite Creative Force steps up to 7f for the first time and is racing on soft ground for the first time.
Mutasaabeq was only 6/1 for the 2,000 Guineas after an impressive seasonal reappearance win. He ran below market expectations in 7th. A winner on heavy ground on his sole juvenile start. Drop back to 7f looks a good move and he remains capable of better. Stall one doesn’t great though with all the pace looking to be high to.
Light Refrain won a heavy ground Listed race at Nottingham on her seasonal return and ran even better when a 1 length 4th of 10 in the Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock. She was doing her best work at the finish and there’s a good chance she will stay 7f on pedigree.
Fast Raaj won the Group 3 Prix Djebel at Deauville last time. That Group 3 success means he has to give a 3lb penalty away and needs to improve to win but that’s possible as he’s only had four career starts. Seemed to handle heavy on his juvenile debut so should be fine on the ground.
Verdict: At the prices I’m happy to take a chance with Light Refrain and Fast Raaj.
1pt win – Light Refrain – 12/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Fast Raaj – 16/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
3:40 – Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 4f
Wonderful Tonight ran out a good winner of the Group 1 Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes over C&D last October. She’s 4-4 on soft & heavy, including 3-3 on heavy. The rain has come at the right time for her but how fit will she be for her seasonal reappearance.
Hukum won the King George V Stakes (Handicap) over C&D at seasons Royal Ascot. He possibly didn’t stay the St Leger distance when 5th on his final 3-year-old start. A nice reappearance at Sandown over an inadequate 1m 2f on his return and then he went on win a Listed race at Goodwood (soft). Connections still think he can make up into Group 1 horse so he needs to win this if those lofty aspirations are to be fulfilled.
Albaflora ran out an easy winner of a Listed race over C&D two starts back. Possibly wasn’t suited to track when 4th in the Coronation Cup at Epsom last time or may have found Group 1 company to hot. Goes well in the mud and like it here.
Logician won the 2019 St Leger. He hasn’t reached that level of form on two starts last season or when 3rd of 5 at Newbury on his seasonal reappearance. He was badly in need of the race that day and will strip fitter. Hard to say whether he wants the ground as testing as its likely to be today. Class horse of the race if bouncing back to his Leger best that’s for sure.
Broome finished a close-up 4th in the 2019 Derby. Last season was a bit of a write off, just the two starts. Has returned to action in good form winning his first three starts and finished a head 2nd of 8 in the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup last time. Handles juice in the ground and a return to 1m 4f for the first time this season looks a good one.
4:20 – Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) – 6f
Starman is likely to be a non-runner.
Dream Of Dreams finally gained a Group 1 success when winning the Haydock Sprint Cup last September and has finished runner-up in this race for the past two seasons, beaten a head on both occasions. Made a winning return at Windsor and is a worthy favourite.
Glen Shiel had Dream Of Dreams back in 8th when winning the Champions Sprint over C&D last autumn. Likely needed the run when 4th of 10 at the Curragh on his seasonal return and should be spot on for this.
Art Power was a 1 length 4th in the Champions Sprint. It was a good effort by a 3-year-old and he’s well suited to soft ground. Had a nice prep at York last month and isn’t out of this.
Sonaiyla was only 10th in the above race but was probably over the top. Finished one place ahead of Glen Shiel at the Curragh on her return and then went on to win a Group 3 back at the Curragh 17-days ago. Needs a career best to win but could get into the places given her present form.
5:00 – Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 6f
Kings Lynn is a surprise runner. The 5-year-old makes a quick turnaround after an unlucky 3 ¼ length 7th of 16 in the Group 1 King Stand Stakes here on Tuesday. An improving sprinter he’s well in on King Stand form and provided this race doesn’t come to quick will take the beating. Seemed to handle soft ground well enough when second at Doncaster last autumn.
Fresh beat Pendleton a nose over C&D last month. He goes well on soft ground and although he’s up 5lb for that win. The runner-up has gone onto win at York so the form of that race looks solid. Pendleton is up 6lb for his York success but he’s another who goes well on soft/heavy ground.
Punchbowl Flyer comes into the race seeking the hat trick after wins at Windsor and Haydock. Has a 5lb penalty for the latter success but he’s in great form and likes soft ground. Won’t find it easy to dominate the field as he has done the last two times but must be respected.
Chiefofchiefs goes well on the straight course. A winner of last season’s Silver Wokingham off 4lb lower, the 8-year-old has run well with plenty of encouragement on both starts this season Last time out was a 3-length 7th of 27 here in the Victoria Cup over 7f. Has been trained to peak today and a big run can be expected although who knows whether stall 8 is a good or not.
Gulliver can never be left out of calculations in big field handicaps like this especially on soft ground. Was a 1 ½ length 4th in this race last year and latter that season beat 20 rivals at York (soft) and is now 3lb below that mark. More encouragement last time when a strong finishing 6th of 18 at York. Needs luck in the run but can go well.
Verdict: Apart from Punchbowl Flyer most of the horses I like are drawn low to middle. He could get to the stands rail and could be hard to peg back. Kings Lynn looks a handicap blot if he handles the quick turnaround. The old boys Chiefofchiefs and Gulliver like the type of races and should go well. There was plenty to like about Fresh’s C&D win last time and he’s high on the shortlist as is Pendleton.
1pt win – Fresh – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt each way – Gulliver – 18/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (Both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
1pt win – Chiefofchiefs – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:35 – Golden Gates Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 2f
King Frankel has been steadily progressive on all four starts this season. He finished runner-up in the London Gold Cup and occupied the same position when beaten a nose at Epsom two weeks ago. Didn’t really handle the track last time and can be seen to better effect on a more conventional track. Big contender with Frankie Dettori booked.
River Alwen was 4 ½ lengths behind King Frankel in the London Gold Cup and gets 9lb form that one today. Stall 18 will be tricky to negotiate but he’s a definite contender.
Foxes Tale is one of the least experienced of the field. A winner of a Newbury maiden on his return to action, He was fancied for Chester’s Dee Stakes but was slowly away and didn’t seem to handle track. Handicap debut off a workable and can go well if he handles today’s rain softened ground.
Fantastic Fox easily won a Hamilton maiden last time and prior to that had finished a respectable 1 ¾ length 3rd of 10 to Sky Lantern at Newbury. Workable mark for his handicap debut and step up to 1m 2f. Should be fine on soft ground but his stamina for the distance will be tested here.
Alfaadhel has won his last two and is going the right way. Looks nicely treated for his handicap debut but really soft ground would be an unknown for the colt although he won on good to soft at Chester two starts back.
The Richard Fahey pair of Seasett & Pythagoras will both appreciate soft ground. The former is up 7lb for finishing 2nd of 10 in the Silver Bowl at Haydock. Needs to improve again for the step up to 1m 2f. Pythagoras won a soft ground Listed race at Pontefract on his final juvenile start. Not disgraced when 6th of 10 in the Group 2 Dante Stakes last time and this is a drop-in class for the colt.
Visualisation has won two of his last three since going on turf. He battled on well to win to beat 15 rivals in a Curragh handicap last month. Both turf wins have come on soft/heavy and although he’s been raised 7lb for his last win there could be plenty more to come from the colt. Stamina on the dam side suggests he will stay 1m 2f.
Verdict: Both King Frankel and River Alwen are respected on their London Gold Cup form, The latter has every chance at the revised weight but stall 18 at this distance tempers enthusiasm. Alfaadhel is a good prospect but testing ground is an unknown. Foxes Tale is capable of better but is another with a wide draw. Pythagoras could be the pick of the Fahey pair and is respected. As is the improving Visualisation who goes well on soft ground.
1pt win – Visualisation – 12/1 @ William Hill
1pt win – Pythagoras – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
6:10 – Queen Alexandra Stakes (Class 2) – 2m 5 ½ f
Falcon Eight won the Chester Cup last time. He’s got a good chance at the weights but will likely want the ground to dry out.
Stratum bids to give Willie Mullins a third win the race. The 8-year-old is highest of these on official ratings and he did win the 2019 Cesarewitch on soft ground.
Stag Horn won over 2m 2f at Pontefract last autumn. No problem with soft ground that day and should be suited by a severe stamina test like this. Found things to quick when 4th of 6 in the Group 2 Sagaro Stakes here on his return to action. Sharper today and will like the return to testing ground.
Morando was third to Hukum in Goodwood Listed race last time. Track and ground fine, stamina for this marathon trip is an unknown but he’s got a good chance st the weights if he does stay.
Verdict: A better renewal than normal. Stag Horn will relish the return to testing ground and is improving stayer but preference is for Stratum today.
1pt win – Stratum – 5/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John