Hi all,
The final day of Royal Ascot 2023 has arrived. You wait for 12 months for the best five days of flat racing anywhere in the world and it’s over in a blink of an eye. I think we can safely say we’ve had five memorable days of racing which I will go through in detail next week.
Whatever happens on the final day of the meeting. Those of you who took up the £5 on offer to join Victor Value for Royal Ascot made an excellent profit for a very modest investment.
I’m kicking myself for not putting up Okita Soushi in yesterday’s Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap but apart from that I’m happy with the way my selections have gone this week.
Right without further ado onto my final Royal Ascot preview.
Royal Ascot – Day 5
2:30 – Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) – 7f
You can make a case for Golden Mind who built on a promising racecourse debut when winning a Leicester maiden (6f) 25 days ago. A half brother to the yard’s Perfect Power who won here at two & three. He was strong at the finish last time and looks in need of 7f.
Aidan O’Brien has saddled the winner of this juvenile contest four times since 2017 and he runs Pearls And Rubies and Content. Both must be respected. The first named who is the pick of Ryan Moore and overcame greenness to win at Navan (5f) 13 days ago. Her dam won the Irish Oaks so she should improve plenty for the step up to 7f. The likely strong favourite and the one to beat.
La Guarida a daughter of New Bay looked a nice prospect when striding clear of her rivals to win a Goodwood maiden (6f) 28 days ago. The step up to 7f should elicit more improvement from her and she can give the favourite most to do.
Verdict: Pearls And Rubies is very highly regarded by trainer Aidan O’Brien and is the one to beat. Golden Mind and La Guarida look the best of the home team and the latter might be worth a small play.
3:05 – Jersey Stakes (Group 3) – 7f
Covey looked a Group horse in a handicap when making all to win the Silver Bowl (1m) at Haydock 28 days ago. Looks the type to keep on improving and the drop back to 7f shouldn’t inconvenience the son of Frankel.
The Antarctic won three times in a busy juvenile campaign and finished runner-up in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes. The colt looked as good as ever when making a winning seasonal return in a Group 3 at Naas last month. Has to give 3lb to most of his rivals but must be respected on his first start at 7f for powerful connections.
Quar Shamar a winner of a Dundalk maiden in April seemingly took his form to a new level when a 4 length 6th of 11 to Paddington in Irish 2000 Guineas at the Curragh last time. The drop back to 7f could suit the son of Shamardal on the evidence of his Curragh run.
Enfjaar won a Newmarket maiden on his juvenile racecourse debut and duly improved to win under a penalty at Chelmsford (1m) on his return to action last month. Looked a Group horse in the making at Chelmsford and although the drop back to 7f is a slight concern on quick ground connections won this in 2020. Yard also runs recent Epsom winner Olivia Maralda who wouldn’t be totally out of it.
Verdict: Covey looked a Group horse when winning at Haydock and should go well dropped back to 7f but he’s plenty short enough. Enfjaar also looks up to this level but I’m not sure the drop back in trip will suit him as well as the likely favourite. Quar Shamar run behind Paddington in the Irish 2,000 Guineas gives him a chance and he could be the value pick.
3:40 – Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) – 6f
Last year’s close-up third Artorius will be well suited to the forecast strong pace and should be bang there once more.
Highfield Princess took her form to a whole new level after finishing 6th in this corresponding race 12 months ago. The three time Group 1 winner has finished runner-up on both this season’s starts including when length runner-up in Tuesday’s King Stand Stakes (5f).
Wellington a high class sprinter in Hong Kong winning four Group 1’s, three at the distance. Not at his very best on four starts this year but if he’s as effective here then he will be a major player with Ryan Moore booked.
Kinross took his form to a new level last season completing a four timer when winning the Group 1 Champions Sprint over C&D last October. Handled quick ground when a close-up third in the Breeders Cup Mile but he was a 2 ¼ length 8th of 24 in last year’s race on good to firm and 6f on this ground may to quick for him once more.
Rohaan is a four time C&D including the last two Wokingham Handicaps and a Group 3 last October. Needed his seasonal return behind Run To Freedom at Salisbury last month and he will be seen in a much better light returned to a C&D that he goes so well over.
Sacred the harder they go up front the better for here. A five time winner mostly over 7f the mare looked as good as ever when running out a smooth winner in a Group 3 (7f) at Lingfield last time. She finished a 1 length fifth in last year’s race and won’t be far away once more on ground that suits.
Verdict: You can never rule out Rohaan over a C&D that really suits. However, I’m going with Hong Challenger Wellington who is a high class sprinter if at his best and will love the quick ground.
4:20 – Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 4f
Hukum posted a career best when beating Desert Crown in the Group 3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes over 1m2f on his first run since returning from a serious injury. Set for another big run back at 1m 4f which is probably his optimum trip. The problem could be good to firm ground and there must be a chance that he won’t run.
Free Wind’s form figures since her 2-year-old debut are 1121111. The mare was at close to her best when beating Rogue Millennium in the Group 2 Middleton Park Stakes (1m 2f) at York on her seasonal reappearance. The runner up won the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes here on Wednesday so the form looks even better than it did at first. Better expected back over 1m 4f and the mare looks capable of an even bigger performance.
Pyledriver is having his first start since winning last year’s King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes over C&D (good to firm) last July. Doesn’t have to carry a penalty for that success but whilst he would have a good chance at his best you have to think he might need the run here.
Changingoftheguard won the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at this meeting last year and looked in the need of the run when laboured on his seasonal return last month. Should be fitter here and could get an uncontested lead today.
Deauville Legend won the Group 2 Group 2 Great Voltigeur at York last summer and finished 4th of 22 in the Melbourne Gold Cup last time. Needs to improve to beat the likes of Hukum and Free Wind but it’s possible he may do better as a 4-year-old.
Verdict: Course & distance winner Changingoftheguard could get an easy lead and can’t be discounted if he does. Pyledriver will likely need the run. This looks between Hukum and Free Wind who set a high bar and the former will be tough to beat back at 1m 4f.
5:00 – Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 6f
Orazio has returned from a long lay-off in great form, winning his last two starts at Newmarket and latterly over C&D last month. Up 9lb for his latest success but he remains on a good mark and could be pattern horse later in the season. I have had in mind for this since he won at Newmarket and although stall 29 is a slight concern and he’s running on much quicker ground than so far this season he’s bred to appreciate it.
Apollo One finished 8th in last year’s renewal but has placed in valuable 6f handicaps at Newmarket and Epsom. Career best on RPR’s last time and although 3lb higher has each way claims.
Probe won a valuable handicap at Newmarket (6f) on good to soft but was five lengths behind Apollo One at Epsom on quicker ground last time. This stiffer 6f will suit the 5-year-old but he might be better on an easier surface. Ryan Moore booked though and there was plenty of money around for him at Epsom which suggests connections believe he remains on a good mark.
Lethal Levi was well behind Probe at Newmarket on his seasonal return but was back to his best on quicker ground when a neck 2nd of 21 to Bielsa at York last time. Up 4lb for that effort makes life tougher but he should be in the mix.
Khanjar made a promising enough return to action when a 4 ½ length 12 of 21 to Bielsa at York on his seasonal return last month. He couldn’t take advantage of what looked like a good opportunity when a length 2nd of 8 at Hamilton 16 days ago. He was slowly away that day which didn’t help his cause. The first time cheekpieces are applied and I can see him going well if taking to the headgear.
Mr Wagyu looked to be returning to winning form when 3rd of 14 at Epsom two starts back (Apollo One 2nd). Very disappointing seven days later at Haydock though. Question to answer after that run but he was a 2 ¼ length fourth in last year’s race and can race off 5lb lower here.
First Folio was well backed (6/1 fav) but could only finish 16th of 21 in the handicap won by Bielsa last time. He was a well held 6th in this race 12 month ago and needs the first time visor to have the desired effect.
Verdict: Plenty in with a chance in an ultra-competitive renewal of the race. I have fancied Orazio for this for some time and he remains high on my shortlist. Apollo One ran well at Epsom last time and should go close but could be vulnerable to a closer. Probe might prefer more ease in the ground but this stiffer 6f will suit him better than Epsom last time. Khanjar is starting to become disappointing but the first time cheekpieces make of interest. It might be worth forgiving Mr Wagyu’s latest run and he’s lower than when fourth in last year’s renewal.
5:35 – Golden Gates Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 2f
Knockbrex a winner at Pontefract in April before finishing runner-up to Queen’s Vase winner Gregory at Haydock. Ran well for a long way before his stamina seemed to run out over 1m 4f on handicap debut at York last time. Likely to face competition for the lead here but he remains capable of bigger performance dropped back to 1m 2f.
Lion Of War, a stablemate for Knockbrex, did well to win at Musselburgh last time after stumbling at start and having to make his effort widest of all. Up 4lb for his latest success but there should be more to come from the son of Roaring Lion.
Canute got off the mark at the fifth attempt when stepped up to 1m 2f in a Navan handicap 13 days ago. Just 1lb higher but he’s open to further progress and has to be on the high on the shortlist for the Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore combination.
Have Secret must have solid claims after his 1 length 4th of 14 to Bertinelli in the London Gold Cup (1m 2f) at Newbury on his seasonal return last month. The three that finished in front of him that day have all run well here this week and the eight won on Thursday, so the form looks solid. More exposed than some of his rivals but should go close.
Laafi won a soft ground Nottingham maiden on his second start last October. He made a promising enough return to action when fourth in the Lingfield Derby Trial. The trainer had said before the race that the colt hadn’t come to himself at the time so in the circumstances it was a better run than it suggests. Looks the sort to do better as the season progresses and I can see going well on handicap debut in the first time tongue tie.
Irish challenger Cuban Dawn has shown ability on his three starts over a mile. Bred to appreciate 1m 2f+ and is very interesting on handicap debut upped to 1m 2f. Looks on a very workable mark and can outrun big odds.
Verdict: A tricky as a handicap as you’ll find at the meeting with fifteen 3-year-old’s many of whom are open to further improvement. The Charlie Johnson pair of Knockbrex & Lion Of War are open to further progress. As is the Aidan O’Brien trained Canute. Have Secret’s fourth in the London Gold Cup looks even better now and he’s got each way claims. Both Laafi and Cuban Dawn are capable of better and could be the value plays.
6:10 – Queen Alexandra Stakes – 2m 5 ½ f
Stratum has won the last two renewals of the race and must have a favourites chance of landing the hat trick.
Falcon Eight was a 1 ¾ length fourth to Stratum in last year’s race respected each way if reproducing that form but he looked well out of sorts when beating only one home in the Chester Cup (soft). A quality performer on a going day. Hopes are pinned on the reapplied cheekpieces, replacing the visor, reviving the 8-year-old.
Dawn Rising, a useful novice hurdler since returning from a mammoth absence is back on the flat for the first time since finishing runner-up in a Group 3 at Newmarket in July 2020. Capable of more improvement on the level and if he stays, can go close.
Run For Oscar is a good dual purpose performer who won the Cesarewitch at Newmarket last season. Shaped with plenty of encouragement when 5th of 6 in a Listed race over an inadequate 1m 4f at the Curragh last month. Doesn’t have much to find with Stratum on official ratings (7lb) Stays 2m 2f well and this distance should be within his stamina range.
Verdict: The race I like least of the 35 at Royal Ascot concludes the meeting. Stratum has won the last two renewals of this, and his claims are clear for all to see. Dawn Rising looks capable of better returned to the flat with Ryan Moore booked for the ride. Run For Oscar won last year’s Cesarewitch and shouldn’t be far away.
Betting Advice:
Royal Ascot
2:30 – La Guarida – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:05 – Quar Shamar – 1pt win – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:00 – Orazio – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes, Mr Wagyu – 1pt win – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Probe – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Bet365
5:35 – Lion Of War -1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes, Laafi – 1pt win – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Cuban Dawn -1pt win – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Cheers
John