Hi all,
We’re entering the final furlong of this year’s Royal Ascot. The Day 4 highlight is the Group 1 Coronation Stakes (4:20). Irish 1,000 Guineas winner Tahiyra is set to go off odds on for the race. I really like the filly but on quick ground I think she might be vulnerable and I’m taking her on.
Royal Ascot – Day 4
2:30 – Albany Stakes (Group 3) – 6f
Carla’s Way was a £350,000 Breeze-Up purchase who created a good impression when making all to win a Doncaster maiden 20 days ago. She produced a good speed figure in winning that day and the runner-up has gone since so the form has a solid look to it.
Trainer Roger Varian has saddled the winner of this race in 2014 & 2019, and he has a live contender in Jabaara. The daughter of Exceed And Excel overcame trouble to win going away at Newmarket on her racecourse debut last month. There should be more to come from her, and she should go close.
There are couple of interesting Irish challengers in Porta Fortuna and Navassa Island. The former won at the Curragh on her racecourse debut before just holding off Navassa Island in a Group 3 at Naas 33-days ago. There was plenty to like about the winners change of gear that day and she’s capable of better. Interestingly Navassa Island was making her racecourse debut in that race which showed she’s highly regarded by connections. Strong at the finish at Naas, she’s open to further improvement and is worth her place in the line-up with Colin Keane booked.
Verdict: Carla’s Way is the right favourite, but I’m torn between the claims of Jabaara and Navassa Island.
3:05 – Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) – 6f
High class juvenile Little Big Bear bounced back from a poor run in the 2,000 Guineas to win a Group 2 at Haydock 27-days ago. He proved that day he’s a sprinter not a miler last time and is the one to beat.
Shaquille continued his progressive ways when winning a Newbury Listed race 34-days ago. Deserving of his place in the line-up and likley capable of better than he’s shown so far. Can cause trouble at the start so if he doesn’t boil over in the preliminaries won’t be far away.
Sakheer looked a smart prospect when winning at Haydock and Group 3 at Newbury on his final juvenile start. Best not judged on his 6 ¾ lengths 7th of 14 to Chaldean in 2000 Guineas on soft ground. The return to sprinting looks a big plus as does a sound surface. Another open to further improvement.
Lezoo won four of her five juvenile starts ending last season with a win in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes. She didn’t stay the mile in the 1,000 Guineas but ran well enough to think she’s trained on and will be seen to better effect back sprinting. Quick ground suits her well and she can’t be discounted.
Verdict: All eyes on Little Big Bear who could turn out to be a special sprinter if he can beat what looks like a decent field. Both Sakheer and Lezoo could bounce back dropped back to 6f. Shaquille might not have stopped improving and looks a shade big in the betting.
3:40 – Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 4f
Al Nafir, a full brother to connections three time Group 1 winner Ghaiyyath, ended last season with a win in a competitive Old Rowley Cup Handicap at Newmarket. Up 10lb but he’s been gelded since and should be spot on fitness wise for his belated seasonal reappearance. Yard form is a slight worry and at 5/1 he looks plenty short enough despite his obvious claims.
Teumessias Fox has won both his starts this season since a gelding operation. The latest of those successes came over the distance at Newmarket (soft) last month. Now 7lb higher but he remains on a competitive mark and won’t be far away if as good on quicker ground.
Okita Soushi posted a career best when a 2 length 3rd of 16 in the Copper Horse Handicap (1m 6f) here 12 months ago. Not produced that level of performance since despite winning twice at Dundalk over the winter. He’s 2lb lower than when running here last year and I have a suspicion there’s another big run in the 5-year-old with Ryan Moore booked.
Nagano has been seen since finishing a head 2nd of 5 in a Goodwood Group 3 in August 2021.Fitness has to be taken on trust, but I think he’s on a handy mark if returning at his best. Stablemate Aimeric returned from an 8 month absence and gelding operation/wind surgery to win at Doncaster handicap (1m 4f) three weeks ago. The 4-year-old has just had seven starts and could be capable of a bigger performance. The only negative is that he has to defy stall 1 which is no easy task in this race.
Live Your Dream progressive over further than 1m 4f in 2021. The 6-year-old was off the track for 20 months prior to finishing a ½-length 2nd of 10 at Haydock 13 days ago. Showed he retained plenty of his old ability last time and from 2lb higher should go well again if avoiding the dreaded ‘bounce’.
Maksud, a winner at Windsor on his racecourse debut last April, produced a career best on RPR’s when a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 13 at Goodwood last July. He needed last month’s seasonal reappearance at Chester. Unexposed over 1m 4f and looks the sort to appreciate the forecast strong pace. Likeable claims for a yard that won this in 2015 & 2021.
Verdict: I could easily go for seven here but the four I have focused on are Okita Soushi, Aimeric, Nagano & Maksud.
4:20 – Coronation Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
Just seven have been declared for this year’s race. Sadly, the entries don’t include 1,000 Guineas winner Mawj who misses the race due to coughing. That means we won’t see the much anticipated rematch between Mawj and Tahiyra.
Tahiyra runner-up at Newmarket went one place better when running out a decisive winner of the Irish 1,000 Guineas at the Curragh.
With no Mawj in the line-up Tahiyra is likely to go off a very short-priced favourite. She’s got the change of gear that stamps her a high class filly and it would be great to see her put in a performance that shows her to be the best 3-year-old miler in Europe.
Despite being a big fan of Tahiyra on quick ground I think she could be vulnerable. However, which of her six rivals can take advantage.
The reliable Meditate finished runner-up to Tahiyra in the Irish 1,000 Guineas as she did in last year’s Moyglare Stakes. Strictly on the formbook she can’t beat the favourite but quick ground does give her a chance of doing so.
Comhra seemingly put in a much improved effort when 1 ½ lengths 3rd of 10 in Irish 1000 Guineas. The application of the first time cheekpieces probably played their part in that good performance and if they continue to have the desired effect there’s no reason why she won’t be in the shake up.
Sounds Of Heaven improved plenty on her juvenile form when winning a York Listed race last month. She had one of today’s rivals Queen For You a short head back in second that day and I think she can confirm form with that filly. The daughter of Kingman seemingly appreciated the quick ground at York so underfoot conditions should pose any terrors for her. I think she’s an exciting prospect who’s open to plenty of improvement and could be the one to take advantage should the quick ground prove to be the undoing of the favourite.
Verdict: They will put water on Thursday after racing but will it be enough for Tahiyra. I’m taking a chance that it won’t and will have a couple of quid on Sounds Of Heaven.
5:00 – Sandringham Stakes (Handicap) (Fillies) – 1m
The John & Thady Gosden yard have a couple of well fancied contenders in Coppice & Marksman Queen. The first named won at Kempton on juvenile debut before a disappointing run on seasonal return in the Nell Gwyn Stakes at Newmarket. Back to winning ways at Newcastle last month. Bred to be better than a 97 rated filly and must be respected on handicap debut. Marksman Queen won her first two starts on the all-weather and there was plenty to like about her ¾-length 2nd of 11 on handicap debut at Kempton 16 day ago. A mark of 86 looks workable if she’s as effective on grass as synthetics.
Jackie Oh looked a useful prospect when winning a Naas maiden (heavy) on racecourse debut in March. She hasn’t been disgraced on either start since and posted a career best on RPR’s when a 5 ½ length 5th of 10 to Tahiyra in Irish 1000 Guineas last time. A mark of 102 makes her vulnerable to any progressive better treated rivals but she has Group 1 entries and is a very interesting runner.
Trainer Johnny Murtaghwon this in 2021and he’s taken the same route with his runner Clounmacon who posted a career best on RPR’s when a head 2nd of 10 in handicap at the Curragh last time. Strong at the finish that day this stiff mile should suit her well and she’s a got a good chance.
Chelsea Green looked a much improved filly when making a winning return/handicap debut at Newmarket (1m) last month. A 3lb rise in the weights for that success doesn’t look harsh and she look a big player if stall 7 isn’t an inconvenience.
Eximious, a winner of a Salisbury maiden last September bounced back from low key run in a Group 2 on her final juvenile start when an improved ¾ length 2nd of 7 on handicap debut at Newbury (7f) 16 days ago. Nudged up 2lb but interesting enough stepped up to a mile for the first time.
Verdict: Coppice, Jackie Oh, Clounmacon, and Chelsea Green are the four on my short list. The prices have gone on the first two named so I’m left with the latter fillies.
5:35 – King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 4f
King Of Steel put in a much improved performance when a ½-length 2nd of 14 to Auguste Rodin in Derby at Epsom last time. That’s the standout form on offer and the colt will be tough to beat if reproducing that performance here off a 20 day layoff.
Arrest, an impressive winner of the Chester Vase (soft) didn’t handle the Epsom undulations when only 10th in the Derby. A return to a more conventional track is a positive and he remains capable of better although the colt may prefer more ease in the ground.
Of the rest Artistic Star was an 11 length 7th in the Derby. A winner of his first two starts. Like Arrest he didn’t seem to handle the track at Epsom, but he was doing his best work at the finish that day and we likely haven’t seen the best of the colt just yet.
Verdict: Whilst Derby runner-up King of Steel will take the beating and even money isn’t a bad price I might have a couple of quid on Artistic Star.
6:10 – Palace Of Holyrood House Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) – 5f
Twenty eight 3-year-old sprinters have been declared for an ultra-competitive looking contest.
Conquistador made it 2-2 since switching to the George Boughey yard when winning at Lingfield on handicap debut in March. Just 3lb higher than when winning last time and he remains on a winnable mark if as effective on grass, as the all-weather, and in a big field scenario. Stablemate Danger Alert beat one of today’s rivals Jer Batt by a head at Chester last month. He’s 5lb better with the runner-up here but that one may be capable of improvement. Still, he can’t be discounted
Frankness twice a winner last season returned to winning ways with a much improved performance when beating five rivals in a Goodwood Handicap (6f) 14 days ago. Up 5lb and back down in trip but inform and going the right way.
Jer Batt made it 2-4 since joining the yard when winning at Musselburgh (5f) in April. Only failed by head to follow up form a wide draw at Chester last time. Yet to race on ground quicker than good but his dam was a dual winner on good to firm which provides optimism that he will handle underfoot conditions. Now 14lb higher than Chester but he’s only had nine career starts and there could better to come from him with Colin Keane booked.
Tatterstall got off the mark at the seventh attempt when winning the 3-year-old ‘Dash’ at Epsom last time. That was a much improved effort and even off 7lb higher he’s worth strong consideration for a yard that is 2-4 with its 3-year-olds at Ascot in the past five years.
Tawalla improved to win a Ripon maiden (soft) last month and stepped up again when making all under today’s jockey Jamie Spencer on handicap debut at Kempton 9 days ago. Has a 6lb penalty to contend with dropping back to 5f but he’s just had four career starts and is capable of more improvement.
Radio Goo Goo completed the four timer when winning a fillies only handicap at York (6f) 7 days ago.The filly has a good battling attitude which was in evidence once again last week which will hold her in good stead here. Back down to the minimum trip ask a different question of her but she’s in such a good vein of form that she can’t be totally dismissed even under a 6lb penalty.
Verdict: It’s hard to leave out Radio Goo Goo given the filly’s current form. Conquistador remains on a good mark if he can transfer his improved all-weather from to the turf. Frankness looked much improved at Goodwood last time and must be respected. Finally, the North have a couple of live contenders in Jer Batt and Tatterstall.
Betting Advice:
Royal Ascot
3:05 – Shaquille – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
3:40 – Maksud – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral and Nagano – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:20 – Sounds Of Heaven – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:00 – Chelsea Green – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes, Clounmacon – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Marksman Queen – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
6:10 – Jer Batt – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Paddy Power and Tatterstall – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John