Hi all,
A super day of action at Royal Ascot yesterday. Helped of course, by backing a couple of winners in Oxted & Poetic Flare.
It’s day two and all the action gets underway with speedy juvenile fillies in the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes (2:30).
I have had a look at all seven races on the card in this preview.
Royal Ascot – Day 2
2:30 – Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) – 5f
Andrew Balding saddled the winner of the Coventry Stakes yesterday and his runner Nymphadora must have a good chance here. Building on the promise of her Newmarket racecourse debut, she won the Listed Marygate Stakes at York last month. Today’ stiffer 5f will suit and she won’t be far away. Mas Poder was 2 lengths back in 4th at York but that was her racecourse debut and she ran green that day and is open to further improvement.
Desert Dreamer had beaten Nymphadora on her racecourse debut at Newmarket and followed up at the same track last month. The latter win came over 6f but the forecast strong pace will suit the daughter of Oasis Dream. Each claims in an open race.
It’s not a race that Aidan O’Brien has had much success in recent season. His runner Yet looked a nice prospect when winning on her racecourse debut at Dundalk and must be a contender.
Wesley Ward saddles Twilight Gleaming. Unlike O’Brien, Ward has saddled three winners of the race since 2015. Twilight Gleaming blitzed her field when winning at Belmont (firm) 38-days ago. Must be respected given connections.
Illustrating looked a smart prospect when winning at Catterick on her racecourse debut. Open to plenty more improvement on her second career start. Didn’t seem to lack speed last time but should stay further than 5f as the season progresses.
Verdict: Desert Dreamer and recent Catterick winner Illustrating both look interesting.
1pt each way – Desert Dreamer – 12/1 @ Bet365 (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
3:05 – Queen’s Vase (Group 2) – 1m 6f
Wordsworth runner-up to High Definition on his sole juvenile start made a winning seasonal reappearance at the Curragh. He was a beaten when an odds-on favourite, by a stablemate, in a Navan Listed race last time. That form gives a good chance here and he remains open to further progress.
Dancing King comes into the race having won his last four starts all in handicap company. Improved when stepped up to an extended 1m 6f at Doncaster last time and goes well on quick ground. He’s another open to further progress.
Taipan hasn’t built on the promise of his seasonal return when third to Bolshoi Ballet at Leopardstown. He’s been slowly away on all three starts this season and looked a bit lazy when only 4th in a Group 3 at the Curragh. The first-time blinkers go on and that looks a good move. Steps up from 1m 2f but should stay and the strong pace will suit.
Joseph O’Brien saddles a couple of contenders in Ruling & Benaud. Ruling looked like he would be suited by a step up to today’s distance when a 1 ½ length 3rd of 8 at Leopardstown 13-days ago. Benaud looked to have improved for the gelding operation when making a winning return at Naas last month. Open to further improvement for the step up to 1m 6f and Colin Keane has been booked for the ride.
Verdict: Wordsworth looks capable of better but at the prices I prefer Dancing King and the first-time blinkered Taipan.
1pt win – Dancing King – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
1pt win – Taipan – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
3:40 – Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2) – 1m
Lady Bowthorpe made a winning seasonal reappearance in a Group 2 at Newmarket before finishing runner-up to Palace Pier in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury. Although, she must give away a 3lb penalty here. A reproduction of her Lockinge run would make her hard to beat back against her own sex but she may have been flattered by close proximity to the easy winner that day.
Queen Power finished runner-up to Lady Bowthorpe at Newmarket but went one better when winning a York Group 2 over an extended 1m 2f. Only third in this race last season and although she looks to have improved this season she may be better over further.
Champers Elysees was one of the most improved horses in training last year going from handicap company to winning the Group 1 Matron Stakes at Leopardstown. Needs to bounce back from two below par runs this season and has a 5lb penalty to give away.
Double Or Bubble impressed when winning a handicap at Newmarket on her seasonal reappearance. The 4-year-old has only had four career starts is suited to quick ground and is open plenty of improvement. She has plenty to find on official ratings with Lady Bowthorpe but with progress expected. I think she can go close if it stays dry.
Verdict: Lady Bowthorpe is the one to beat but I’m going with the unexposed Double Or Bubble who should stay a mile and will love the quick ground.
4:20 – Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 2f
Just the seven have been declared for the big race of day two but it looks a strong field. Last season’s 1,000/Oaks heroine Love heads the ante post betting on her first start for 300-days. This her first start against the colts & geldings but she’s the one to beat if fully tuned up. Stablemate Armory made a winning reappearance in the Huxley Stakes at Chester last month. This is his trip and he’s suited by good ground. Remains with the potential to be a high class 4-year-old.
Lord North has a great turn of foot as she showed when winning this race in 2020 and a Group 1 in Meydan on World Cup Night. Rates the main danger to the favourite on ratings but was found to have bled after his Meydan success.
Audarya won the Breeders Cup Fillies & Mares at Keeneland on her final start of 2020 and prior to the that had finished a length second to the smart Tarnawa in the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp. Not totally out of this on ratings. However, she probably needs to find out a bit more improvement to win.
Verdict: How fit will Love be for her seasonal return. At the prices it be worth siding with her stablemate Armory who looked good when winning at Chester and could be set for a good season.
5:00 – Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m
It looks a good renewal of this annual calvary charge down the Ascot straight mile.
Finest Sound finished runner-up in last season’s Britannia Handicap over C&D and won at Haydock 53-days ago. Up 3lb but gets his ideal conditions today and given he goes well here must be high on the shortlist.
Irish Admiral was a big eyecatcher when a 2 ½ length 3rd of 12 at York two starts back. Didn’t seem to like the soft ground or the track when beaten favourite at Epsom last time. Can be forgiven that run and a strongly run mile could suit the lightly raced 4-year-old.
Magical Morning put in a career best effort when 1 ½ length 2nd of 12 to Matthew Flinders at Doncaster last September. Up 2lb for his seasonal return but looks the sort to land a decent handicap pot this season and is 2-2 on good to firm ground.
Matthew Flinders is another who’s at his best on a sound surface as showed last season. Made a promising return to action when a 1 ½ length 3rd of 16 in the Spring Cup at Newbury. Another poor run at York since but the straight mile here could really play to his strengths.
Grove Ferry looked an improver when winning at Chester. Although he’s been raised 4lb for that win he won a shade cozily that day and is going the right way.
Astro King beat Finest Sound at Nottingham on his seasonal return and maintained his improvement when a ¾ length 3rd of 15 in the Thirsk Hunt Cup. Was doing his best work at the finish that day and may be capable of better.
Beat Le Bon is now 1lb below his last winning mark when landing the 2019 Golden Mile at Goodwood. The 5-year-old finished a neck second to Stunning Beauty at Doncaster 12-days ago. Nicely treated, if all the cards fall right and is well suited to quick ground. Stall 2 may not be great if they come over to the stands side.
Escobar wasn’t suited by the race when only 5th in the Group 3 Diomed Stakes at Epsom last time. The previous C&D winner is better judged on his ¾ length 3rd of 27 in the Victoria Cup here over 7f, despite being slowly away. Stall 14 should be fine and although he’s the type to need luck in the run has each way claims if breaking on terms.
Verdict: Matthew Flinders looks an ideal type for this race. Magical Morning makes his seasonal reappearance here but has been aimed at this race. Astro King looks capable of better and is closely matched with Finest Sound. Irish Admiral was really disappointing at Epsom last time but could be suited by this sort of test. At big odds you can make each way cases for both Beat Le Bon and C&D winner Escobar.
1pt win – Matthew Flinders – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Magical Moment – 7/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Finest Sound – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:35 – Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed Race) – 5f
I was impressed with Tipperary Sunset’s win in the 2-year-old Trophy at Beverley last time. A stiff track seems to suit him and if he handles the quick ground can go close.
The Wesley Ward trained filly Ruthin is the ante post favourite based on her easy win at Keeneland on her racecourse debut.
Dig Two comes into the race having won at Newmarket (good to firm) and at Chelmsford. Drawn high and most of the pace looks to be middle to high so should go well.
Chipotle won over C&D two starts back but ran poorly on soft ground at Sandown last time. That run is best forgiven and he will be suited by the quick underfoot conditions.
Spring Is Sprung improved on his Windsor racecourse debut when showing a good attitude to win back at the same venue 51-days ago. That win came on good to firm ground so the going will suit. Looks the type to improve further and if stall 9 isn’t an inconvenience has each way claims.
Verdict: Tipperary Sunset looked useful when winning at Beverley last time. Spring Is Sprung is capable of more improvement. Dig Two has some of the best English form and can go close.
6:10 – Kensington Palace Stakes (Handicap) (Fillies & Mares) (Class 2) – 1m
A tricky end to the card with eighteen fillies over the round mile. It looks like there will be plenty of pace on and there’s likely to be a few hard luck stories.
Stunning Beauty won her first two starts in novice company on good, good to firm ground last season before disappointing on two starts in Meydan. However, she returned to winning ways at Doncaster last Friday. There was plenty to like about how she battled on inside the final furlong to hold off her Beat Le Bon & Scottish Summit. Her Doncaster success means she gets a 5lb penalty and if stall 3 isn’t a hindrance should go well.
Dreamloper won here over the straight mile last season. She caught the eye when a 1 ¼ length 4th of 13 at Haydock on her seasonal return and put in a career best effort when beaten a short head by one of today’s rivals Lights On here on soft ground last time. Has been raised 5lb for that performance but this has likely been the target.
Lights On is on the up and although she must give 1lb to Dreamloper, a big field and a more strongly run race will suit her. Has a wide draw in stall 17 to overcome but she will be dropped in and ridden for luck by Ryan Moore.
Lolo The Showgirl put in a career best when winning at York on her seasonal return 25-days ago. The ground was soft that day but she’s only been raised 2lb for York win and if she’s as good on quicker ground must be there or thereabouts.
Trainer David Loughnane also saddles Ffion. The 4-year-old won her first two starts at Wolverhampton and has finished runner-up on her two starts at Haydock in handicap company. Up 2lb for her last run but remains capable of better. Both turf runs have come on heavy ground but there is hope on pedigree that she could be better suited by a sound surface.
Caspian Queen put in a career best effort when winning at Kempton on just her second start at 7f. Only up 2lb for that win and shaped like she would be worth a try at a mile. Interesting if she stays out of stall 16.
Verdict: Plenty in with a chance here. Last time out winners Lights On and Stunning Beauty are big contenders. Both David Loughnane runners Lola The Showgirl and Ffion have to be respected in particular the latter. If Caspian Queen stays the mile, she’s handicapped to go close.
Lights On – 13/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
1pt win – Ffion – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Caspian Queen – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John