Hi all,
Royal Ascot is here. The meeting is set to begin in sunny and hot weather and on good to firm ground although a thundery breakdown is expected on Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Later in the week who knows, its Britain after all. At least we know what the ground will be like for the next two days. All the action gets underway at 2:30.
My present form tipping wise is dire so I need to pull my finger out over the next five days. It’s a bit of a cliché but Royal Ascot is marathon not a sprint so I am not going over the top tipping wise today.
Royal Ascot – Day 1
2:30 – Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) – 1m
Despite stall 11 its hard to look beyond hot favourite Palace Pier who is the best colt in Europe in my opinion. Order Of Australia dropped back to a mile to win the Breeders’ Cup Mile at Keeneland in November. Sir Busker goes well here over the straight mile and has each way claims. As does Bless Him whose 2-3 over C&D and goes well on quick ground.
3:05 – Coventry Stakes (Group 2) – 6f
Kaufymaker, trained by Wesley Ward, has been subject to good reports and its interesting that the trainer has opted to run the filly in this race.
Gisburn built on the promise of his racecourse debut when making all to win at Newbury last month. He looks an exciting juvenile prospect although he’s unlikely to get his own way like he did last time.
Ebro River has won his last two starts. He still looked green when hitting the front when successful in the Listed Stakes at Sandown last time. Both wins have come over 5f, on soft ground He stay the extra furlong but does have stall one to overcome. If his wide draw isn’t an inconvenience and he handles today’s much quicker ground he won’t be far away.
Aidan O’Brien has saddled four of the last ten winners of the race so his sole representative The Acropolis must be respected.
Verdict: Ebro River looks a high-class juvenile but today’s quick ground asks a different questionof him. Gisburn is another good prospect should be fine on the ground and can go close.
3:40 – King’s Stand Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) – 5f
Battaash will like the ground and last year’s winner has a great record when fresh – 5 wins from 5 runs when returning from a 121+day break. His preparation for the race has been interrupted by a fracture but he’s still the one to beat.
Winter Power was so impressive when making all to win a York Listed race on her seasonal return. A big step up in class here but she’s potential Group 1 sprinter. Her blistering pace will have plenty in trouble but can she hold on over this stiff 5f?
Oxted last year’s July Cup winner over 6f will like the quick ground and is interesting on his first start over the minimum trip. Hasn’t really fired on either start this season but the stiff track will suit as should the likely strong pace.
American raider Extravagant Kid won the Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint. That was over 6f but a strongly run 5f on quick ground could really suit the 8-year-old.
Kings Lynn is going the right way and we likely haven’t seen the best of the 4-year-old. He could get into the money for The Queen. Stablemate Stone Of Destiny is well suited to C&D and quick ground. Was doing his best work at the finish in the Epsom Dash last time and although he’s plenty to find on ratings he could get into the places at big odds.
Verdict: Doubt’s over Battaash recovery from injury mean he’s out to a value price at around 2/1. Winter Power has plenty of speed but the likely fast pace can set it up for Oxted.
1pt win – Oxted – 8/1 – Gen
4:20 – St James’s Palace Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Colts) – 1m
English 2,000 Guineas winner Poetic Flare looked a shade unlucky not to win the Irish version last time. This will be his fifth start of the season and he did have hard race at the Curragh. Still, he’s the one to beat.
Lucky Vega is having his final start before taking up stud duties in Australia. The colt finished 3rd in the English 1,000 Guineas and did best of those coming from behind when 4th in the Irish 1,000 Guineas. Now they know he gets a mile he can be ridden more prominently than he was at the Curragh.
Chindit was 5th in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket but this track will suit him better than Newmarket. He’s been kept fresh for this and can get closer to those who finished in front of him last time.
Mostahdaf is an improving colt who steps up from Listed company today. A winner at Sandown last time he’s only had three starts and is capable of more improvement.
Battleground struggled at Newmarket in the English 2,000 Guineas. This track should suit him better and he could bounce back to his juvenile best in the first-time tongue tie.
Verdict: A better run from Battleground wouldn’t come as a surprise. Lucky Vega should go well but I still fancy Poetic Flare can finish ahead of him again. Chindit looks the pick of the home team and comes into the race fresh.
5:00 – Ascot Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) – 2m 4f
Willie Mullins has won this four times in the past 10-years so M C Muldoon must be respected although he must show he’s effective on the likely fast ground. Mullins also saddles Rayapour and Royal Illusion. The former is interesting in the first time cheekpieces and returned from a 665-days break to finish third over hurdles at Kilbeggan last month. He could be the pick of the Mullins three.
Just Hubert was an eyecatcher for me when 3rd of 10 at Haydock last time. That was his first start for seven months and as he showed when winning at Goodwood last summer, he stays 2m 4f strongly. Big chance for an inform yard.
Postileo runner-up in the Chester Plate two starts back but finished one place behind Just Hubert at Haydock last time.
Trumpet Moon improved for the step up to 2m in the second half of last season. A solid 3 ¼ length 5th of 16 in the Chester Cup. Handy draw in stall 2 should they go forward with the 4-year-old and he has potential to improve for the step up to 2m 4f.
Elysian Flame a winner at Newbury two starts back. He was slowly away in the Chester Plate and poorly placed thereafter but was doing his best work at the finish into 5th. Granted he’s up 2lb but shouldn’t be far away.
Lostwithiel won his first two starts and has since finished runner-up at Nottingham & Newmarket. He’s only had four starts so is capable of more improvement and could be better than a mark of 96 for the step up to staying trips.
Dalton Highway is just 2lb above his last winning flat mark and is interesting on just his second flat start beyond 2m 1f. Stays 2m well and a sound surface suits the 8-year-old.
Verdict: The first of two competitive handicaps. Just Hubert stays well. Trumpet Man ran well in the Chester Cup last time. Lightly raced Lostwithiel has stamina to prove but is on a winnable mark. The best of the Irish raiders could be the Dermot Weld trained Dalton Highway.
1pt win – Just Hubert – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Dalton Highway – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:35 – Wolferton Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) – 1m 2f
Patrick Sarsfield looked as good as ever when finishing a head 2nd of 9 in Listed race at The Curragh 13-days ago.
Felix was runner-up in the Winter Derby at Lingfield and then put in a career best effort on RPR’s when a 4-length 3rd of 12 behind Lord North back on turf in a Group 1 at Meydan. Should be suited by a strongly run 1m 2f and has won off a break.
Juan Elcano is having his first start since wind surgery. A talented juvenile but he hasn’t run well since finishing 5th in last season’s 2,000 Guineas.
Solid Stone won a Listed race over a mile at Windsor which means he must give a 3lb penalty away. The 5-year-old won’t be far away if in the same form as last time.
Verdict: The bookies have got this right with Patrick Sarsfield & Felix at the head of the betting but a strong pace could set this up for Felix.
6:10 – Copper Horse Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 6f
A tough 16 runner handicap concludes day one.
Smart hurdler Saldier bolted up for Willie Mullins at Listowel 9-days ago. Only has a 4lb penalty for that win and the 7-year-old could still be well handicapped.
Sleeping Lion is 7lb higher than when winning the Queen’s Prize at Kempton in April. The drop back in trip shouldn’t be an inconvenience for the 6-year-old who has run well here in the past.
Arthurian Fable gelded at the end of last season and ran well on his first start for seven months when a 2 ½ length 4th of 7 to Global Storm at Newmarket last month. He ran well here last season when a close-up 5th of 17 in the King George V. Sole win came on good to firm over today’s trip and he looks set for a good run. He would have good chance of finishing ahead of Global Storm on 4lb better terms today.
Throne Hall has run well on all three starts this season and looks worth a try over 1m 6f. He’s less exposed than most and can go close.
On To Victory last season’s November Handicap winner is on a decent enough mark but probably needs softer ground than is likely here.
Verdict: Arthurian Fable must be high on the shortlist. Throne Hill has developed into a consistent middle-distance handicapper who should be in the mix and don’t rule out Sleeping Lion who has run well here in the past and goes well on quick turf.
1pt win – Arthurian Fable – 9/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Sleeping Lion – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John