Hi all,
Finally made a profit at Royal Ascot on Thursday courtesy of Khaloosy who won the Britannia Handicap in good style at early priced advised 8/1.
The rain arrived yesterday and the turned the going description to soft. Ascot does dry out quickly in particularly the straight course so a dry day today and it’s more likely to be good to soft by the end of the meeting.
We have already reached day four of Royal Ascot. The meeting opens with one of the races added to the Ascot card for this season only.
Royal Ascot – Day 4
1:15 – Palace Of Holyroodhouse Handicap (Class 2) – 5f
Art Power was one of the few Tim Easterby runners to win first time up since racing resumed. A winner over 6f at Newcastle 18-days ago. The drop back to minium trip shouldn’t bother the speedy 3-year-old who proved his effectiveness on soft when winning at York last season. Plenty to like about his chance here. In the same ownership is Rayong. he’s interesting on his effort on soft ground in last years Windsor Castle over C&D. Was making headway when not getting a clear at the furlong mark. With a clear passage would have finished much closer to the placed horses. Seasonal return and handicap debut but won first time up last season. Has an each-way chance on last season C&D form.
Dancin Inthestreet didn’t get a clear run when 3rd of 10 on her handicap debut at Haydock 11-days ago. Today’s stiffer track should suit and she’s got each way claims getting a stone from Art Power.
Triple Spear showed he could win on turf when showing a good attitude on to win at Haydock 11-days ago. Has a 5lb penalty to carry for that win in a much better race which makes life tougher. Remains unexposed on the grass, just the three starts, so could run into the places.
Keep Busy is more exposed than the two horses mentioned but she was staying on at the finish to take second in Sandown Listed race 6-days ago. A winner of a heavy ground Listed race at Chantilly last November she another with place claims with Cieren Fallon taking off a handy 3lb.
Verdict: Hard to look beyond the progressive Art Power who could be a Group performer in the making. The short price of the favourite does provide punters with some decent each way propositions.
1:50 – Albany Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) – 6f
Fourteen go to post for this fillies’ only juvenile race.
Mother Earth, trained by Aidan O’Brien, made a promising racecourse debut when 2nd of 14 at Navan 9-days ago. Today’s extra half furlong will suit the daughter of Zoffany and she’s high on the shortlist for a trainer who win this race in 2016.
Setarhre went one better, than Mother Earth, on her racecourse debut when winning at Newmarket 15-days ago. The filly was slowly away that day but shaped like a filly who would be an ideal type for this race for a trainer whose won this race twice since 2014, including last year.
Undertake, a stable mate of Setarhe, won on her racecourse debut at Lingfield 13-days ago and gives trainer Roger Varian a strong hand in the race. Her dam won on soft ground so easy ground might not be an inconvenience.
Dandalla made a winning racecourse debut at Newcastle over 5f but she’s bred to appreciate today’s extra furlong and could run a big race.
Verdict: A juvenile winner for Aidan O’Brien yesterday means Mother Earth needs respecting. A chance is taken with one of Roger Varian’s fillies Setarhe who made a winning debut at Newmarket.
1pt win – Setarhre – 7/1 @ Coral
2:25 – Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) – 5f
Eye Of Heaven is sure to be popular with punters after an excellent win on his racecourse debut at Newmarket 15-days ago. His win came in a really good time and the form of the race has been franked as the third home Tactical won the Windsor Castle on Wednesday. Softer ground today would ask a new question of the colt though.
Lipizzaner built on the promise of his March racecourse debut when once again occupying the runner-up spot at Naas over 6f. The son of Uncle Mo showed plenty of speed at Naas so the drop back to the minimum trip shouldn’t be a problem. Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won this race twice since 2015.
The Lir Jet made all to win at Yarmouth 16-days ago. He’s since been sold to race in the colours of Qatar Racing. Big chance but it looks like the ground will be softer than it was last time.
Imperial Force, trained by Andrew Balding, made a good start to his racing career when 2nd of 11 in a Newmarket maiden. Can improve for that run and given his sire is Camacho he should handle rain softened ground.
Verdict: The soft ground puts me off favourite Eye Of Heaven & The Lir Jet. Imperial Force could be suited to the drop back to 5f as should Lipizzaner who showed plenty of speed at Naas 11-days ago.
3:00 – Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 4f
Last years Derby winner Anthony Van Dyke showed he’s returned in good heart when runner-up in the Coronation Cup two weeks ago. He’s the class horse of the race and he did win last years Lingfield Derby Trial on soft ground so easy ground shouldn’t pose a problem for the 4-year-old.
Last years winner Defoe ran flat in the Coronation Cup and finished well behind Anthony Van Dyke that. He should get closer today and can’t be totally discounted.
The more rain the better for Morando, who won a soft ground C&D Group 3 on his final start of 2019. The 7-year-old isn’t far off this level on soft ground with his two best RPR’s coming on soft.
Elarqam tries 1m 4f for the first time. He ran Prince Of Wales’ winner Lord North to a short head at Haydock on his reappearance. His stamina will be tested on soft ground if he stays has the class to win.
The improving Hamish drops back to 1m 4f but he shouldn’t be inconvenienced by it, given the likely soft ground, but he does have to have improved over the winter to beat the principals.
Verdict: Anthony Van Dyke & Elarqam are the form choices but the latter has stamina to prove. Given the form of the Roger Varian stable you couldn’t discount last year’s winner Defoe bouncing back to form. Morando will relish the ground as will Hamish.
1pt win – Defoe – 7/1 @ Bet365
3:35 – Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) – 6f
This looks like it could be the race of the day with a field of 16 declared for this sprint for the classic generation.
Ante post favourite is Pierre Lapin who was unbeaten on both his juvenile starts, including the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes. Looks an ideal type fore the race and goes very well fresh. Big chance although soft ground be an unknown for the colt.
Kimari, trained by Wesley Ward, was beaten just a head by Raffle Prize in last years Queen Mary on good to soft. The filly comes into the race having won in the US in April so has trained on from two to three. Soft ground won’t help he cause but she can’t be be ruled out.
Lope Y Fernandez showed good speed to take the lead between the final two furlongs in the Irish 2000 Guineas and was only run out of second close home. The drop back to sprint trip looks a good move. That race was only 7-days ago but if the quick ground doesn’t inconvenience, he’s a strong contender.
Millisle ran really flat in the English 1000 Guineas so last year’s battling Cheveley Park winner has to prove she’s trained on from two to three. Drop back to sprinting looks a wise move and she did win on soft ground at the Curragh last August. Big player if she bounces back to her best.
Verdict: Pierre Lapin makes his seasonal reappearance. Uneaten on his two starts last season he looked an outstanding sprint prospect for this year when winning the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes. Lope Y Fernandez will be suited by the drop back to sprinting as should Millisle.
4:10 – Queen’s Vase (Group 2) – 1m 6f
Aidan O’Brien is 5 winners from 19 runners +28.08 10 placed with his runners in the race since 2010. He saddles two this year. Santiago, the choice of Ryan Moore, handled soft ground very well when winning a Listowel maiden in September. First run for 281-days but should be fit enough and could make up into smart stayer.
The other O’Brien runner Nobel Prize. The son of Galileo won a heavy ground Naas maiden 229-days ago. A brother to smart middle-distance horse Highland Reel he’s another who could make up into high class 3-year-old.
The form pick is Berkshire Rocco who finished runner-up to Derby hope English King in the Lingfield Derby Trial on his seasonal return. Trainer Andrew Balding won this race last year with Dashing Willoughby and he looks to have a similar horse in Berkshire Rocco.
Al Dabaran won his first two juvenile starts last season before placing in two Group 3 races in France in September. Gets the first-time blinkers for his first start in 2020. Should stay 1m 6f this season and handles ease in the ground.
Born With Pride caused a shock when winning the Listed Montrose Stakes at Newmarket on her racecourse debut last November. The second home that day Peaceful recently won the Irish 1000 Guineas and the third Run Wild won the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes on her return. Weak in the market before her return in the Classic Trial she ran to bad to be true. Should be all the better for reappearance and can’t be ruled out on ground that should suit.
John Gosden saddles On Guard although Frankie Dettori is on Nobel Prize. The colt shaped with promise on his sole 2-year-old start and returned to action with Yarmouth novice win 8-days ago. Stays 1m 4f and looks the sort to keep progressing as a 3-year-old although this looks a hot race. Trainer won this in 2017 with Stradivarius.
Verdict: This could turn out to be a decent renewal of the Queens Vase. Berkshire Rocco has the best form. Born With Pride will love the going and can bounce back from her poor Kempton reappearance effort. The Aidan O’Brien pair of Santiago & Nobel Prize both have the potential to improve as 3-year-olds and represent a trainer with an excellent record in the race.
1pt win – Berkshire Rocco – 4/1 – Gen
4:40 – Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 4f
El Misk ended 2019 putting in a career best effort when beating three rivals over 1m 4f at Kempton. Looks set to do well in middle distance handicaps this year but he’s yet to race on soft ground.
Hughie Morrison has won this race twice since 2010 and last years 4th. He saddles Le Don De Vie The 4- year-old won his first two starts of 2019 when with Andrew Balding. Just the three starts for his present yard winning at Goodwood over 1m 2f in August before disappointing in the Cambridgeshire. Progressive last season he’s only had the one start over 1m 4f. 4th in a valuable Goodwood handicap, if he stays, he can go close although soft ground will test his stamina.
Medal Winner has only had four career starts, winning the last two over 1m 2f. Raised 6lb for the last of those wins at Newcastle which isn’t harsh. Soft ground would be an unknown for the 4-year-old but he shapes like he’s capable of more improvement for the step up to 1m 4f.
Al Muffrih won Redcar’s Zetland Gold Cup last May off 6lb lower. He was then sent of just 7/2 for his next start in the Old Newton Gold Cup at Haydock. He never got in a good position from a wide draw and then slipped badly on the home turn. Won first time up in 2018 so fitness shouldn’t be an issue for the lightly raced 5-year-old but rain softened ground could be, yet to race on worse than good. Can win a nice pot over this sort of distance but not sure he will have his underfoot conditions today.
Easier ground brings Good Birthday into the mix. Twice a winner last season over 1m 2f, the 4-year-old ended last season when finishing 3rd of 30 in the Cambridgeshire. Gelded over the winter he did best of those coming off the pace when third at Newmarket 12-days ago. Stamina for 1m 4f still to be proved, was a never threatening 10th of 16 in the King George V Stakes over C&D last year on his only start at the trip but looks worth another go at it.
Indianapolis showed easy ground held no terrors for him when winning on heavy at Leicester on his final start of last season. Just 2lb higher now, he can remain competitive in valuable middle-distance handicaps this year. Would liked to have seen better from him on his seasonal return at Newmarket 13-days ago but this previous C&D winner should at least be sharper for that run and can’t be ruled out.
Verdict: Le Don De Vie was my idea of the winner of the race before the rain came but his stamina will be tested by the ground. Good Birthday will like the going but he’s another who might struggle on the stamina front. The ground is a concern for both El Misk & Al Muffrih. Medal Winner should relish the step up to 1m 4f. Yet to run on soft ground but he’s related to winners on soft & heavy which offers hope that he can be effective on it.
1pt win – Medal Winner – 10/1 @ Bet365
1pt each way – Le Don De Vie – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Cheers
John