Hi all,
A lower key day for day four of the Qatar Goodwood Festival with no Group 1’s today. The feature race is the Group 2 King George Qatar Stakes (3.35) which has £300,000 in guaranteed prize money. There also two Group 3’s on a seven-race card: The Thoroughbred Stakes (2.25) and the Glorious Stakes (4.10). The big betting race of the day is Coral Golden Mile Handicap (3:00) which has attracted a maximum field of 20 runners.
There’s also some good racing at Galway this evening with the Guinness Handicap (6:35) and the Guinness Galway Blazers Handicap Chase (6:00) the highlights of an eight-race card.
Once again, I have had a look at the six races live on ITV in today’s preview. Friday’s betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Qatar Goodwood Festival – Day 1
1:50 – Coral Goodwood Handicap (Class 2) – 2m 4 ½ f
On Thursday I thought I had found a selection at a decent price in the Milton Harris trained and previous course winner Super Superjack. The 8/1 that was available has gone and he’s now a best priced 4/1. He’s still got a great chance as I think he can improve for the step up to 2m 4f. but his odds now reflect that. If you fancy him now, I would wait to see if he drifts out a bit.
Withhold was close to his best when a 1 ¾ length 2nd of 20 in last year’s race. The 9-year-old is now 2lb lower but needs to improve on what he’s shown so far on two starts this season. If he’s back to last season’s best, then he won’t be far away.
The money for SuperSuperjack means that top-weight Reshoun has drifted out to a backable price. Successful in last year’s Ascot Stakes (2m 4f) and runner-up in the Queen Alexandra Stakes at this season’s Royal Ascot. He returned to winning ways at Newbury 13-days ago with Withold 5 lengths back in fifth. Up 3lb but he stays really well and capable of another big run.
2:25 – Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3) – 1m
Checkandchallenge wasn’t disgraced when 14th of 15 in his turf debut in the 2,000 Guineas. He was set too much to do when ¾-length second of 11 to Sinjaari at Sandown 27-days ago. It was a cracking effort in an all-aged handicap by a 3-year-old off a mark 108. He will be tough to beat if reproducing that performance here. The main alternative to the favourite looks to be German challenger Rocchigiani. He was a cracking 1 ¼ length 2nd of 11 to the smart Maljoom in the German 2,000 Guineas. A solid enough 2 ½ length 5th of 15 in Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot last time, shaping like he will be suited by a return to a mile.
3:00 – Coral Golden Mile Handicap (Class 2) – 1m
A race where the draw has been all important. In the past ten years horses drawn 10 or higher are 1 winner from 100 runners -93 15 placed with those drawn 14 and higher are 0 winners from 63 runners 7 placed. For those drawn high in this year’s race they’ll have to have plenty in hand of handicapper defy to win and have all the cards fall right. I’m going with those drawn in a single digit draw.
Noble Dynasty returned from a 8 month layoff and a gelding operation to win at Newmarket 22-days ago. He’s got just a 3lb penalty to carry for that success and has a good draw in stall 3. If he handles the track, he will take the beating.
Blue For You finished ½ length runner-up to Eilean Dubh at York two starts back and occupied the same position when a neck behind Ghaly at the same venue 7-days ago. Today’s stronger pace will suit, and he’s well drawn in stall 1. Stablemate Orbaan is in stall 2. He’s on a long losing run that goes back to June 2020, but he’s run well in plenty of big field handicaps when getting a good pace to chase. He was a 6 ¼ length 6th of 18 in last years race after not getting the best of runs 2f out. He’s 14lb lower today but may prefer more ease in the ground.
Eilean Dubh (6) has already had a tremendous season making it four wins in 2022 when edging out Blue For You at York. He has a 5lb penalty to carry for his latest success and you couldn’t rule out further improvement form the 4-year-old.
Ouzo (7) bounced back from a poor run at Royal Ascot when a good 1-length third of 11 to Sinjaari at Sandown last time. He didn’t get the best of runs 1f and had to switched to the rail otherwise he might well have won. Another on a losing run but he’s now put in two good performances since joining the Jamie Osborne yard. Same mark as last time and is in the mix if in the same form.
Rebel Territory (9) a winner on his final start last season returned from a 7 month break to beat Ouzo by a neck at Sandown in May. He’s 5lb higher and Ouzo must have a good chance of reversing places with him, but he looked an improver last time. A winner here 12 months ago over 1m 1f he’s got a decent draw in stall 9 and if he’s as good on quick ground he’s a major player.
Sinjaari (10) might be in stall 10 but he’s not of it. The top-weight has a 3lb penalty to carry for his Sandown success but he’s very much on my shortlist. The likely strong pace will suit the classy 6-year-old who won’t be far away if handling the track.
3:35 – King George Qatar Stakes (Group 2) – 5f
Raasel, Mitbaahy and Equilateral were first, second and sixth in the Coral Charge at Sandown. A neck separated the first two named at the line, but Mitbaahy didn’t get the clearest of runs when making his effort. However, Raasel has been one of the most improved sprinters this season and you couldn’t rule him out confirming that Sandown form.
Equilateral looked even more unlucky in that race, but he’s since only managed to finish 3rd in Group 2 at Curragh. I prefer his stablemate Khaadem who showed how well suited he was by fast ground when winning the Group 3 Palace House Stakes at Newmarket in April. He was withdrawn at the start in the King Stand Stakes at Ascot so hasn’t run since April. That said he goes well fresh, and he remains unexposed over 5f. Trainer Charlie Hills is struggling for winners, but Ryan Moore is a good jockey booking.
Acklam Express won over C&D as a juvenile and although he hasn’t won since his juvenile season he put in an excellent performance, looking as good as ever, when a 4 ½ length 3rd of 16 to Nature Strip in King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. That’s as good a form as any in the field and should go close if reproducing it this afternoon.
Has Raasel’s progression ended? I’m not sure it has, and I think he’ll confirm Sandown form with Mitbaahy. He’s the one to beat in what’s competitive looking renewal with the bookies going 4/1 the field. I will probably have a unit on Acklam Express and Khaadem.
4:10 – L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate Glorious Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 4f
Rebel Romance won the Listed Fred Archer Stakes at Newmarket on his belated turf debut last time. No reason to think he can’t prove up to winning in Group company on a sound surface and this isn’t the strongest of races.
Sir Michael Stoute trained the winner of this three times between 2016 & 2018, and he saddles Regal Reality. The 7-year-old improved on his Royal Ascot reappearance when a 1 ½ length 2nd of 7 in Listed race at Sandown last time. That was a decent effort and as good as he’s produced since his last success in August 2020. On the negative side he’s been slowly away on both starts this season. If he gets off on level terms, then he’s not out of this on his first start beyond an extended 1m 2f.
Desert Encounter won this in 2019 and finished runner-up in 2020. Indeed, the veteran has never finished outside the first two on his four starts at the track. Hard to see a 10-year-old being able to win this but you can’t totally dismiss him either on quick ground.
4:45 – Coral Beaten-By-A-Length Free Bet Nursery Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
Plenty of the 16 runners have claims in this nursery handicap.
Bolt Action a winner at Leicester on his racecourse debut, wasn’t disgraced when 4 length 6th of 24 to Little Big Bear in listed Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. The form of that race is working out well. The step up to 6f should suit and the top-weight is open to more improvement.
California Gem bids for the hat trick after wins over the minimum trip at Ripon & Beverley. The filly probably didn’t beat much last time but she was well on top at the finish. There should be more to come from her stepped up to 6f.
Kaasib bounced back from a couple of low key efforts when a 2 length 2nd of 5 on his nursery debut at Ffos Las 18-days ago. The booking of William Buick takes the eye and trainer Clive Cox has a winner here on Thursday. He’s vulnerable to any better handicapped rivals but is on fair mark and has each way claims.
Trainer Tom Dascombe won this last year with Ever Given and he’s got a solid contender here in Felix Natalis. The son of Harry Angel put in a much improved performance when making all to win on his nursery debut at Newbury 8-days ago. He’s got to carry a 6lb penalty in a much better race but shouldn’t be far away given his present well-being.
Galway
I have a few fancies at Galway this evening.
6:00 – Guinness Galway Blazers Handicap Chase – 2m 6 ½ f
Aramax was a 4 ¼ length 3rd of 19 in last year’s race and is 3lb lower this time around. He hasn’t come close to matching that performance since over fences or hurdles but was a little better over hurdles at Ballinrobe last time.
Bold Emperor posted a career best on RPR’s when running out a 15 length winner at Wexford (2m 4f) 28-days ago. He’s been raised 10lb for that win which may not stop him. A solid jumper of a fences he was strong at the finish that day and looks worth another try at 2m 6f.
Busselton won three novices chases last season and ended the season with a good 6 length 2nd of 15 to El Barra in a valuable novices’ handicap chase at the Punchestown Festival. Comes into the race on the back of a win on the flat and should go well.
Waitnsee won a Kilbeggan handicap hurdle three weeks and the runner-up boosted that form when winning here this week. Back over the larger obstacles here the mare stays much further than 2m 6 ½ f and looks set to go well.
Russian Diamond is 1-8 over fences he’s hasn’t always convinced in the jumping stakes despite winning a Fairyhouse beginners chase in October. Probably shouldn’t be judged to harshly on two runs in the Cork Grand National and the Paddy Power Handicap Chase over Christmas. Cheekpieces on for the first time, for a trainer Emmet Mullins whose runners go well here, and is interesting on ground that will suit.
6:35 – Guinness Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 1m 4f
The 3-year-old Ruler Legend is interesting on his handicap debut and can win more races although he may prove better with more juice in the ground. Yafordadoe goes well around here but he’s another who will probably want more ease in the ground. Stablemate Dha Leath made it 3-4 for the season when winning at Roscommon (1m 2f) last month. She wasn’t stopping at the end of her race last time, but she isn’t certain to stay today’s extra 2f. Up 8lb on her hat trick bid and might not have stopped her progression yet.
Gary Carroll rode Dha Leath to her last two wins but he’s on Sionnach Eile today which maybe significant. The 5-year-old put in a career best on RPR’s when winning at Ballinrobe 11-days ago. The first time hood he wore last time clearly had a positive effect last time and although a 12lb rise in the weights will be tough to defy I can see him going well.
Baby Zeus was a respectable 7 ½ length 4th of 16 in last year’s renewal, from 2lb higher. Weighted to finish in front of Yafordadoe and Sionnach Eile on their running at Listowel last September. Has a good draw in stall 2 and although the 4-year-old is 7lb above last season’s winning mark he’s got solid claims for a yard that has won this race four times since 2015.
Betting Advice:
Goodwood
1:50 – 1pt win – Reshoun -7/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Withold – 8/1 @ Bet365
3:00 – 1pt win – Blue For You – 11/1 @ Coral and 1pt win – Sinjaari -11/1 @ Bet365
3:35 – 1pt win – Khaadem – 7/1 @ Bet365
4:45 – 1pt win – Felix Natalis – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Galway
6:00 – 1pt win – Waitnsee – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Bold Emperor – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
6:35 – 1pt win – Sionnach Eile – 12/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Baby Zeus – 14/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John