Hi all,
Sadly, there’s no “dual on the downs” in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes (3:35). It’s a shame for the race that 2,000 Guineas / St James Palace Stakes winner Coroebus had a setback at the weekend and has been forced to miss the race. So instead of a real race we likely have a procession of 1/5 favourite Baaeed.
Besides day two of the Qatar Goodwood Festival, it’s another evening at Galway and arguably the most competitive race of the day the Galway Plate Handicap (6:40).
Just the seven races at Goodwood today with once again the first six being broadcast live on ITV. In today’s preview I have had a look at the first six races at Goodwood and also the Galway Plate. Today’s selections can be found at the end of the main piece.
Qatar Goodwood Festival – Day 2
1:50 – Coral Beaten-By-A-Length Free Bet Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 4f
Secret State completed the hat trick when winning the King George V Stakes (Handicap) at Royal Ascot. He’s 7lb higher now but holds Great Voltigeur and St Leger entries so is highly regarded and has a likeable profile. Needs to win this if he’s to take up those lofty assignments.
Soulcombe bids for the hat trick after winning at Ascot last time. He’s up 7lb but is going the right way and remains capable of better. Trainer William Haggas won this in 2016. Stablemate Mandobi can have line drawn under his run behind Secret State at Royal Ascot, as he wide throughout with any cover. He’s better judged on hi Thirsk win and is open to improvement. Tom Marquand takes the ride, but he wouldn’t be able to the weight on stablemate Soulcombe.
Mugader is another improving middle distance handicapper who won over an extended 1m 6 ½ f at Doncaster last time. Not sure about the drop back to 1m 4f but he’s owned by Al Shaqab and must be respected.
Maksud was too keen in a steadily run Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes (1m 2f) at Royal Ascot. He handled the Goodwood undulations when a close-up 4th of 6 here two starts back. Ryan Moore booked 4-16 when teaming up with trainer Hughie Morrison in the past 5-years takes the ride on the gelding’s handicap debut.
Zain Nights responded well to the fitting of the first time cheekpieces when making all to win at Newbury last time. Won’t get an easy lead here though and doesn’t look well drawn in stall 12.
Surrey Mist has been running well in valuable handicaps over 1m 2f/1m 4f on his last three starts. He will be better suited by the return to 1m 4f here.
The Mark & Charlie Johnson yard have landed this race four times in the past 10 years. They saddle Luminous Light & Approachability. You can’t rule out either of them. However, my preference is for the former who has run well on his last two starts over 1m 2f and shaped last time at Ripon like he was capable of a bit more improvement for the step up to 1m 4f.
2:25 – Whispering Angel Oak Tree Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) – 7f
I want to take on recent Chelmsford Listed winner Soft Whisper here. Heredia looked a Group filly in waiting when winning the Britannia Stakes (Handicap) at Royal Ascot. Maybe the race came to quick when she was a disappointing 8/11 favourite in Sandown Listed race earlier this month. She’s worth another chance albeit stall 12 isn’t ideal.
Heredia’s biggest rival could be French challenger Samahram who has a nice draw in stall 5. Frankie Dettori has been booked for the 3-year-old who made it 2-3 when winning a Listed at Longchamp last month. This has been aim for hers since that success and her owners Al Shaqab Racing are the sponsors of the festival and they have won this race three times between 2015-2017 with French trained horses. Quick ground an unknown but must be on the shortlist.
3:00 – Markel Molecomb Stakes (Group 3) – 5f
An interesting renewal of the Molecomb despite just the 8 runners. Rocket Rodney is a worthy favourite. The colt was a neck 2nd of 24 to the smart Little Big Bear in the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot. He then comfortably saw off five rivals in the Listed Dragon Stakes at Sandown last time. He holds Eddie’s Boy who has since boosted the form when making all to win the Super Sprint at Newbury.
A bigger danger to the favourite looks to be Irish challenger Studio City. Trainer Michael Callaghan won this in 2020. A good winner at Navan last time Studio City now runs in the colours of Al Shaqab. Ryan Moore booked, and he looks set for a good run. Interesting to see Richard Hannon drops Trillium back to 5f after her recent win at Newmarket over 6f. She looked smart filly that day and shouldn’t be underestimated.
3:35 – Qatar Sussex Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
A probable procession for hot favourite Baaeed. Sadly, there’s not an each-way option here but for those looking at the forecast or without the favourite market. There are a few options.
Alcohol Free won this last year and won the Group 1 July Cup over 6f last time. Angel Bleu won around here last season so there are no issues with the track, but he would be of more interest on an easier surface in this company.
Japanese challenger Bathrat Leon could get into the money. The 4-year-old won the Group 2 Godolphin Mile on dirt in Meydan in March. He made all to win last time but will find competition for the lead from Order Of Australia who won the Group 2 Minstrel Stakes at the Curragh 10-days ago.
Modern Games won the French 2,000 Guineas on his seasonal return and just failed for stamina when 3rd of 15 in the French Derby. Found things happening a bit too quickly down to 7f when a 1 ½ length 5th of 11 to Tenebrism in the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat at Deauville last time. Hard to see him being good enough to beat the favourite but could be the one for the forecast or without market.
4:10 – European Breeders Fund EBF Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f
The Tim Easterby filly Myristica comes into the race in great form. The 4-year-old goes well at Ripon so Goodwood’s undulations shouldn’t hold any terrors for her. William Buick 1-3 when teaming up with the trainer takes the ride and she’s high on the shortlist even off top-weight of 10-1.
Rousay proved her stamina for 1m 2f when 2nd of 7 at Salisbury last time. She has a decent draw in stall 3 and is respected with Hollie Doyle taking over from an inexperienced apprentice. Peripatetic was 1 ¾ lengths back in third in that Salisbury race. Today’s likely stronger pace should suit her better and I think she can reverse placings with Rousay.
There are a couple more potential improvers among the nine fillies.
The 4-year-old Sea Speedwell has only had the three starts. A winner at Kempton in December she returned from 7 month absence with a solid enough effort when ¾-length 2nd of 5 on her turf debut at Leicester 13-days ago. She has got scope for plenty of improvement and a mark of 82 is more than than workable.
Natasha a useful juvenile showed she had trained on from two to three with an improved 3 ¼ length 3rd of 5 on her seasonal reappearance/handicap debut at Newmarket 12-days ago. May have needed the run last time and is capable of better.
4:45 – British EBF Alice Keppel Fillies’ Conditions Stakes – 5f
Another juvenile contest completes ITV’s coverage of day 2. Personally, I would have preferred the 19 runner handicap that concludes the card, but the broadcaster has gone with this race. It’s not a race I have given much thought too.
The Richard Fahey trained The Platinum Queen is a short- priced favourite and she deserves to head the market after making all to win at York 19-days ago. The time was good, so the form looks solid, and she could be capable of more progress.
Of the rest Cruise was a promising 3 ¾ length 4th of 9 on her racecourse debut at Newmarket. A speedily bred filly she should do better with racing and could get into the places.
Galway
6:40 – Tote Galway Plate (Handicap Chase) (Grade A) – 2m 6 ½ f
Plenty of the 22 runners like to be ridden prominently so there should be a strong pace. That said you don’t want to be ridden too far back around here.
I don’t have the time to go through the claims of all twelve (12) on my shortlist.
The ante post market is headed by the Emmet Mullins pair of The Shunter & Cape Gentlemen. The first named is solid enough and was a 4 ¼ length 4th of 22 in this race last year, off today’s mark.
Cape Gentleman is a bit of unknown he’s very much unexposed over fences. He’s won two of his four starts over the larger obstacles but hasn’t been seen since falling four out in the Grade 1 Drinmore Novice Chase at Fairyhouse in November. He’ll be fit enough for his first start for 241-day and could be well on a good mark off 152.
Willie Mullins who won this 12 months ago has three. The best of his trio look to be El Barra & Easy Game.
Easy Game was a length runner-up in the race 12 months ago and is 3lb higher this time around. He’s been well placed to win his last four starts and given his track form he’s got to be respected despite top-weight.
El Barra made it 2-5 over fences when winning a valuable novice’s handicap chase at the Punchestown Festival last time. Now 10lb higher but is going the right way and is the choice of Paul Townend.
Others in the mix
Exelerator Express stays 3m so will probably need the forecast strong pace to materialise to win. Needs to jump better in this field than he did at Perth last time but the first time cheekpieces are applied and he has each way claims.
We haven’t seen The Jam Man since he bolted up in the valuable Troytown Handicap Chase at Navan in 2020. He’s an interesting one in the first-time blinkers and is another with each way claims if the headgear has the desired effect.
Gordon Elliott has won this three times since 2015. He saddles three in Ash Tree Meadow, Hurricane Georgie and Battleoverdoyen. Hurricane Georgie completed a hurdles/chase hat trick when winning the Midlands National Handicap Chase at Kilbeggan 19-days ago. A 12lb rise makes life tougher but she’s in form and remains unexposed beyond 2m 6f.
Ash Tree Meadow is the shortest of the three in the ante post betting. The 6-year-old is only a novice but come into the race bidding for a four timer over fences. This is a big ask for an inexperienced horse, but he’s impressed with his jumping on his last two starts. His stamina for an extended 2m 6f must be taken on trust. However, he looks a smart chasing prospect and mark of 144 could well underestimate him.
Betting Advice:
Goodwood
1:50 – 1pt win – Luminous Light – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:25 – 1pt win – Heredia – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Samahram @ Bet365 & Coral
3:00 – 1pt win – Studio City – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes
Galway
6:40 – 1pt win – Ash Tree Meadow – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes, 1pt win – El Barra – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt each way – Exelerator Express – 33/1 @ Bet365 (paying 6 places 1/5 odds).
Cheers
John