Hi all,
It’s day 3 at the Qatar Goodwood Festival and day four at Galway. The highlight of Ladies Day at Galway is the Guinness Galway Hurdle (5.05) which has €159,300 on offer to the winner.
At Goodwood the Group 1 Nassau Stakes (3.35) is the feature of a seven-race card with recent French Oaks winner Nashwa likely to go off the odds-on favourite to land her first British Group 1. The other Goodwood highlights include the Group 2 Richmond Stakes (2:25) and Group 3 Gordon Stakes.
Inside today’s main piece I preview I’ve had a look at the six ITV races and the Galway Hurdle. Today’s betting advice and selections is at the end of the main piece.
Qatar Goodwood Festival – Day 3
There’s a nice mix of Group races and handicaps on the Goodwood card.
1:50 – Coral Kincsem Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f
Migdam twice a winner at Kempton last September he improved for a return to turf when winning on his handicap debut at Doncaster last month. Up 6lb for that success but is going the right way and should keep progressing. Likeable profile and the yard had a handicap winner here on Tuesday
Vee Sight showed the benefit of having a gelding operation when putting in a much improved performance when winning on his seasonal return return/handicap debut at Sandown (9f) last month. Strong at the finish last time he can only improve for today’s extra furlong.
Asaassi has won both this season’s starts; at Salisbury and then doing well to come from off the pace in a steadily run race at York on his handicap debut 20-days ago. Up 4lb in a deeper race but goes well on quick ground and is another capable of more progression.
Asgoodassobergets did best of those coming off the pace when an improved 4 ¼ length 2nd of 13 to Missed The Cut in Golden Gates Handicap at Royal Ascot last time. That’s solid form and if he can improve again, he should be in the mix.
2:25 – Richmond Stakes (Group 2) – 6f
This looks between Royal Scotsman and Chateau. The first named won a C&D maiden (good to soft) in May and improved again when 1¾ lengths 3rd of 17 to Bradsell in Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. This has likely been the target all season and fully deserves to head the market.
There was plenty to like about Chateau’s win in a Newbury Listed contest 13-days ago. The colt was strong at the finish that day and looks capable of better
3:00 – Gordon Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 4f
Hoo Ya Mal is having his first start since his excellent 2 ½ length 2nd of 17 to Desert Crown in Derby at Epsom. Has been bought to race in Australia. Interesting to see the first-time tongue tie is being applied today. He has best form on offer and arguably should be favourite.
New London is the ante post favourite after his recent success under a big weight in a Newmarket handicap (1m 2f). At his strongest at the finish last time the step up to 1m 4f should bring out even more improvement in the well-regarded colt. If he handles the track, he could find the improvement required to beat Hoo Ya Mal.
Grand Alliance, not competitive in the Derby, bounced back to his best when a short-head 2nd of 6 in King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. He proved his stamina for 1m 4f that day and probably would have won but for hanging badly left inside the final furlong. He’s clearly a talented colt but looks tricky. If he handles Goodwood’s undulations, he’s not out of this.
3:35 – Qatar Nassau Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 2f
A decent sized field of nine fillies for the feature which is more open than the betting suggests.
Nashwa found 1m 4f stretching her stamina when 3rd of 11 in the Epsom Oaks. However, she bounced back to winning ways dropped back to an extended 1m 2f in the Prix de Diane at Chantilly. Will likely need to improve again racing against older fillies for the first time.
Concert Hall, third in the Irish 1,000 Guineas, finished 1 ¼ length behind Nashwa in the Oaks. She’s since run respectably on both starts in Group/Grade 1 company since, without looking like winning. The fitting of the first time cheekpieces makes her of interest here.
Dreamloper has returned to action in good form winning the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket on her seasonal reappearance before going to post a personal best when winning the Group 1 Prix d’Ispahan at Longchamp. You can forgive a poor run in the Pretty Polly last time as the ground had turned soft and she’s a better on a sound surface.
Lilac Road found some improvement to win the Group 2 Middleton Stakes at York last time. Given the steady early gallop she did well to win coming from the rear. Probably wouldn’t want the race to get tactical as she may prove better over a bit further.
Ville De Grace an improving filly in the second half of last season put in an excellent effort when running Dreamloper to a nose in the Dahlia Stakes on her reappearance. However, she didn’t build on that effort when only 5 length 4th of 5 to Lilac Road at York last time. She’s better than she was able to show at York and we may not have seen the best of the filly.
4:10 – Jaeger-Lecoultre Nursery Handicap (Class 2) – 7f
Richard Hannon has won this 7f nursery twice since 2017 and he saddles Newbury winner Seductive Power. The step up to 7f for his nursery debut should suit and he’s got the scope to do well now going handicapping.
The Mark and Charlie Johnson yard have landed this race three times since 2014 and they saddle True Statesman who made a winning nursery debut at Chester 20-days ago. The step up to 7f really suited the colt that day and although he’s been raised 8lb for that Chester success he had plenty in hand and remains progressive.
Far Shot a Yarmouth maiden on his racecourse debut before finishing down the field in the Windsor Castle at the Royal Ascot a week later. That race may have to quick for him and he was seen to better effect when a neck 2nd of 6 at Ascot on his nursery debut 20-days ago. He really should have won that day but didn’t get the best of passages 2f out. Up 4lb but should go well again.
Prairie Falcon has been steadily progressive on his three starts in maiden/novice company. Looked in need of 7f when a 1 ¾ length 5th of 15 at Ayr 17-days ago. Looks on a workable mark, off 74, for his nursery debut. Trainer Michael Dods is 1-1 with his runners at the track in the past 5-years.
4:45 – World Pool Handicap (Class 3) – 5f
Navello a Chester winner three starts back has remained in form on his last two starts and didn’t get the clearest of runs and was forced to make his effort out wide when a 3 lengths 5th of 11 to Look Out Louis back at Chester 12-days ago. All his successes have come going around a bend going left handed but he can still go well here.
Swayze gained a well-deserved success and showed a good attitude at the finish to rally and get back up close home at Haydock. Up 5lb but should continue to run well.
Dusky Prince completed the hat trick when winning at Doncaster three weeks ago. Has a further 3lb rise in the weights to defy but he’s an inform sprinter and is respected on quick ground.
Le Beau Garcon looked unlucky on his seasonal reappearance/handicap debut at Musselburgh (5f) two starts back. Not disgraced when a 4 ¼ length 7th of 19 to Lethal Levi at Newmarket (6f) last time. The drop back to 5f and an ease in class can see him go close.
Galway
Besides the Galway Hurdle there are couple of other interesting flat handicaps on an eight race card at Galway this afternoon.
5:05 – Guinness Galway Hurdle Handicap (Grade A) – 2m
Willie Mullins has saddled three of the last four winners of the race and is represented in this year’s renewal by four runners.
The pick of them looks to be Adamantly Chosen, the choice of Paul Townend and Farout. The former a winner of one of his five starts over hurdles was set plenty to do from the rear when an 8-length 4th of 24 in handicap hurdle at the Punchestown Festival. Today’s forecast fast pace will suit, and he looks handicapped to win a nice handicap pot.
Farout ran better than his final position of 7th suggests in the amateur rider’s handicap here on Monday. A winner of a C&D novice hurdle 12 months ago he was a good ¾ length 2nd of 17 in a Punchestown Festival handicap hurdle on his last start over hurdles and is respected on that run.
The 8-year-old Santa Rossa come into the race in great form having won the Grade 3 Grimes Hurdle at Tipperary last time. She’s well suited by a strongly run 2m and might not have stopped her progression.
Anna Bunina is another well suited to a strongly run 2m. Took advantage of a declining handicap mark when winning the Scottish Champion Hurdle in April and has gone to win two over next four starts including a handicap hurdle at Bellewstown last time. A 7lb rise in the weights makes life harder for her but if the ground is no worse than good, she should run well.
Ballyadam ran his best race for some time when a 6-length 5th of 26 in the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last time. The 7-year-old would have finished a bit closer if he hadn’t have met trouble on the home turn. A strong pace will suit, and he’s not handicapped out of this despite top-weight
Autumn Evening, twice a winner over hurdles last season, looked set to win when taking up at the last in a big field handicap hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival but a poor jump at the last and his effort flattened out on the run-in. He had a prep for this on the flat last month so should be sot on fitness wise. However, he does needs to be produced with as late a run as possible but in Dennis O’Regan is the right jockey to execute those tactics.
Betting Advice:
Goodwood
3:35 – 1pt win – Concert Hall – 12/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Ville De Grace – 12/1 @ Ladbrokes
4:10 – 1pt each way – Prairie Falcon – 14/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
4:45 – 1pt win – Navello -7/1 @ Bet365 & Coral and 1pt win – Le Beau Garcon – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
Galway
5:05 – 1pt win – Farout – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes, 1pt win – Ballyadam – 16/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Autumn Evening – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John