Hi all,
The start of a busy week with likely selections on each day up to Saturday and Scottish Grand National Day.
All eyes today on the return of flat racing at Newmarket. The highlights of three day’s racing at flat racing’s HQ are the two Guineas Trials – the Group 3 Nell Gwyn Stakes on Wednesday and Group 3 bet365 Craven Stakes on the Thursday. The first named is a QIPCO 1,000 Guineas Trial and the latter a trial for the QIPCO 2000 Guineas.
The ITV4 are cameras are covering all three days from Newmarket this year which is a bonus for those who don’t have a subscription to one of the racing channels.
The feature race on day one of the Craven meeting is the Group 3 bet365 Earl Of Sefton Stakes (3:35).
Frankie Dettori is back from a spell riding in the US and has three booked rides including Reach For The Moon in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes.
In today’s preview I have looked at the four Newmarket races live on ITV Racing and my selections and betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Newmarket
The going at Newmarket for the start of the Craven Meeting was being described as soft on Monday afternoon. I have looked at the four races on ITV4.
1:50 – Six of the nine runners in this Conditions race (7f) for 3-year-old’s have Group 1 entries and it could prove to be an informative little contest.
Charlie Appleby saddles two in last time out winners City Of Kings & Majestic Pride and both need respecting.
We haven’t seen Powerdress since she won at this meeting on her racecourse debut last year. She holds a 1,000 Guineas entry and must be respected from a yard that won this in 2019.
Mukeedd, a winner at Newcastle on his sole juvenile start last November, looks open to further improvement as a 3-year-old and has a 2,000 Guineas entry.
Hi Royal is another 2,000 Guineas entry and the colt got off the mark at the second attempt at Ayr last September. Ryan Moore has been booked and he’s another to seriously consider. A race to watch rather than bet in for me.
2:25 – National Stud Handicap (Class 2) – 7f
Tacarib Bay has race fitness on his side and his last success came over 7f at Haydock (good) last July. He’s 1lb higher but goes well on rain softened ground.
Previous C&D winner Final Watch is 3lb higher than when winning an Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap at Ascot in September. All his three wins have come at today’s distance and if the 5-year-old is fully tuned up on his seasonal return should be competitive.
Another previous C&D winner Rebel Territory won his seasonal return last year and is another to watch out for, but he might be better over a mile these days.
3:00 – Close Brothers Handicap (Class 2) – 1m
The biggest field of the day with 13 declared. Greatgadian wasn’t disgraced when a 4 ¾ length 6th of 22 to Migration in the Lincoln Handicap. Now 2lb lower than at Doncaster but needs the first time cheekpieces to eke out some improvement.
Empirestateofmind was ¼ length and one place behind Greatgadian in the Lincoln. He might just have needed the run that day and slightly better ground will suit the 5-year-old.
William Buick is 2-2 on previous C&D winner Ashky. The filly could be in the mix if ready to roll after a 181-day break, but she’s yet race on ground worse on the good on turf.
Dutch Decoy isn’t badly treated on his seasonal return but may need quicker ground. Stablemate Outbreak has been in good form on the all-weather and is unexposed on turf. Soft ground is a unknown for the 4-year-old (sole turf win came on good to firm) but his dam was very effective in the mud which provides some hope that he will be effective on it.
3:35 – bet365 Earl Of Sefton Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 1f
Charlie Appleby saddled Master Of The Seas to win last years renewal and he saddles Ottoman Fleet and Blue Trail. Both have been racing in Meydan over the winter so won’t lack for race fitness. Ottoman Fleet won a Listed race (1m 2f) on soft ground here last October and looks the pick of his pair. That said Blue Trail was very impressive when winning at Meydan handicap last time.
Reach For the Moon a useful juvenile became disappointing last season and the cheekpieces are quickly replaced by the first time blinkers. He’s got talent but there are question marks about him for now. Yard in fine form though.
Intellogent came up short in Group races on his last three starts last season but he’s in the mix if reproducing his useful handicap form over 1m /1m2f last summer. Returns from 192-day break but went close on his seasonal return at this meeting last year. Has each way claims if the eight do run.
The most intriguing runner is clearly bookies early bird favourite Poker Face. The 4-year-old has just had three career starts and ended last season with a comfortable success in a Pontefract handicap. Unbeaten on all three career starts the gelding looked an exciting prospect when winning at Pontefract. Today’s 1m 1f trip might be on the short side for him and even with a steep rise in class could prove too good for his seven rivals.
Betting Advice:
Newmarket
2:25 – Final Watch – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral and Tacarib Bay – 1pt win – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:00 – Outbreak – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Empirestateofmind – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:35 – Intellogent – 0.5pts each way – 25/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places).
Cheers
John