Hi all,
Poetic Flare lands the 2,000 Guineas to keep up the profitable run.
It’s the first fillies Classic of the season at Newmarket today. Although apart from the 1,000 Guineas the rest of the card isn’t as strong as you would like. So it’s a quiet day punting wise for me.
ITV are covering the best of the action from Newmarket and they are also showing two races from Hamilton and one from Salisbury as part of a seven-race programme. I have just looked at the four Newmarket races in this preview.
I will be back on Wednesday for three days at Chester May meeting.
Newmarket
1:50 – Back And Lay On Betfair Exchange Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 4f
The fast ground means just the six go to post. Mark Johnson saddled the winner of this race in 2019 and his two runners Sky Defender & Zabeel Champion are both big contenders and could get the run of the race out in front.
Global Storm won a 1m 2f handicap here last season and wasn’t disgraced on his other two starts of 2020, including finishing 3rd of 14 at Royal Ascot in a 1m 2f handicap. Off for 7 months, he looked a unlucky in the run when 7th of 16 at Meydan in February. That was the 4-year-old’s first over 1m 4f and it looks like he will stay the distance.
The Eve Johnson Houghton horses are going better now and her runner Hyanna needs respecting. The mare holds no secrets from the handicapper but she did win first time up last season and five of her six career wins have come on good to firm.
Rodrigo Diaz is arguably the most interesting of the six runners. The 4-year-old improved for the step up to 1m 4f/1m 6f winning three times on the all-weather in August/September. Just the one start on turf. Starts the season off 10lb higher than for his last success but should keep improving.
Verdict: Rodrigo Diaz is the interesting one here and open to the most improvement. If he’s as good on grass as the synthetics and is ready to roll first time he won’t be far away. Global Storm goes well here and should stay 1m 4f. Hyanna’s yard is among the winners after a quiet start to the season and the mare will relish the fast ground.
1pt win – Hyanna – 16/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
2:25 – Betfair Pretty Polly Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies) – 1m 2f
A’Shaari won her sole start here over 7f as 2-year-old. Should be well suited to 1m 2f and she’s open to plenty of improvement as 3-year-old. Her win came on soft ground and she does have a bit of knee action so quick ground will be an unknown.
Sea Karats a well-bred daughter of Sea The Stars was sent off 10/11 favourite on her racecourse debut at Newbury last month and unlucky not to make it a winning one. She met trouble 1f out and had to be switched but once in the clear she finished her race off strongly to grab third. She will stay 1m 4f and could be an Oaks filly.
Verdict: Not a betting race for me but hopefully Sea Karats can confirm she’s an Oaks contender by winning this.
3:00 – Betfair Dahlia Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m 1f
Queen Power finished runner-up in this race last season. A talented performer but not the easiest to win with but first time up could be the time to catch her.
Lavender’s Blue returned from a five month lay off to win a Kempton Listed race last month. Winless in 2020 but is well suited to good to firm on turf.
Fooraat finished runner-up to Lavender’s Blue at Kempton. She’s only had six career starts so could be open to more progress as a 4-year-old and I think she can finish ahead of Lavender’s Blue today.
Lady Bowthorpe won a Group 3 at Ascot and put in a cracking effort when a 3¾ lengths 6th of 12 to Nazeef in the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes over C&D on her final start. She’s got a good turn of foot but a steadily run race may not suit.
Posted made all to win a Listed race at Sandown in September but was below that form when ridden in the rear a month later in the Group 3 Darley Stakes here over 1m 1f. We might not have seen the best of the 5-year-old and she’s not without a chance if she once again adopts front running tactics.
Verdict: There doesn’t seem to be a huge amount of pace in the race so if Posted is ridden from the front she might be able to dictate like she did at Sandown last season. A slowly run race wouldn’t suit Lady Bowthorpe who’s best when coming off a strong pace. Fooraat is another who could be ridden prominently and she might be capable of better than she’s shown so far.
1pt win – Fooraat – 7/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
3:40 – Qipco 1000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
Unlike the colts’ classic which was very open. The 1,000 Guineas has been a one-horse book. This all revolves around the once raced Santa Barbara. The filly was impressive when winning on racecourse debut at the Curragh last season and has been subject to some ‘bullish’ reports from trainer Aidan O’Brien. She might well win this as easily as the ante post market suggests but she’s priced up on home reputation more than what she’s achieved on the track.
Alcohol Free was the best of these as a juvenile winning the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes here over 6f. Looked like she needed the run and hadn’t come into her coat before the Fred Darling Stakes at Newbury but was still good enough to win. We know she stays 7f but there is a big doubt about a mile on pedigree. Her best chance will come if Osin Murphy is able to dictate the race from the front.
Sacred and Saffron Beach were first and second in the Nell Gwyn Stakes at the Craven Meeting. Sacred is another with stamina doubts for the mile and I think Saffron Beach will reverse placings with Sacred over a mile and can get into the places.
Thunder Beauty won a Curragh maiden on her racecourse debut. She was then thrown into the deep end of the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes for her next start and wasn’t disgraced in finishing a 3 ½ length fifth. Proved a big disappointment when only 7th of 12 in the Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp on her final start. It was heavy at Longchamp so I would be happy to forgive her that run as she’s likely to prove a better filly on quick ground.
Verdict: Santa Barbara could blow us all away with an impressive win but at her present price you must take her on. Alcohol Free is a doubtful stayer but if the race is tactical, she can’t be ruled out. Saffron Beach can get the better of Sacred over the mile and could be worth a saver. Thunder Beauty is a filly I like and she’s got each way claims on ground that could bring out more improvement.
1pt each way – Thunder Beauty – 16/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds)
1pt win – Saffron Beach – 11/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John