Hi all,
Firstly, a big welcome to all of you who have joined the service for the week. Not only will there be previews of all the races at the Newmarket July Festival but as a bonus I will also preview two race from York on Friday and four from York and two from Ascot on ‘Mad Saturday’.
It’s day one of the July Festival at Newmarket. Let’s be clear this isn’t Royal Ascot and it’s not York’s Ebor Festival. However, it’s a good three days of racing which culminates on Saturday with the Group 1 July Cup which is arguably Europe’s premier 6f sprint.
There’s an uncertain weather forecast for Newmarket which is never good news for punters. Depending how much rain comes the going could be anywhere between good to firm and good to soft come Friday afternoon.
It may well pay for you to place you bets as close as to the race as possible over the next few days. I know that’s not ideal for some of you but sudden going changes can provide great betting opportunities.
ITV are covering four races live from Newmarket this afternoon. Today’s selections and betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Newmarket July Festival – Day 1
It’s a seven race card for day one and I’m assuming that the ground is on the quick side of good in today’s preview. Despite the uncertain weather forecast, which has changed again with less rain being forecast for Friday than earlier in the week. The track looks to have commenced watering with 10 to 12mm being applied if you believe social media.
To be fair the field sizes for the first day of the meeting aren’t great. However, most of the main contenders have been declared for their respective races so the quality remains.
1:50 – Bahrain Trophy Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 5f
Just six have been declared but they do include the main fancies in the ante post betting.
Saint George runner-up to Gregory in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot. He made the St Leger contender pull out the stops that day and must be considered a big player here.
The Charlie Appleby trained Castle Way hasn’t been since winning a Listed race (1m 2f) on the other course in May. The colt looked capable of better last time but on pedigree isn’t sure to stay 1m 5f. Trainer won this is 2021 with Yibir.
The Aidan O’Brien trained colt Tower Of London has won his last two starts and is quietly fancied for the St Leger. He seems to have improved for racing on a sound surface and the further he goes the better he looks.
Klondike won Newbury maiden on his racecourse debut in April and improved again when a 3 length 2nd of 6 to Gregory in Listed race (1m 3f) at Goodwood last time. Today’s 2f longer trip should really suit the colt and he’s capable of further improvement. Trainer won this race in 2020 with Al Aasy.
Verdict: Tower Of London looks the most likely winner but I can see Klondike going well over trip that should suit.
2:25 – Kingdom Of Bahrain July Stakes (Group 2) – 6f
Norfolk Stakes runner-up Malc will be fancied to go one place better here. The colt was suited to the stiff 5f at Ascot last time and should be fine over this 6f. He sets a high form standard and is the one to beat.
Aidan O’Brien brings over Mountain Bear. The son of No Nay Never looked a useful juvenile when winning a Curragh maiden 16 days ago. Capable of better and looks well worth his place in group company.
Malc and Mountain Bear do face several unbeaten rivals.
Purosangue won a Haydock novice (5f) on racecourse debut last month. It was an impressive success by the colt who made all before quickening clear of his rivals inside the final furlong. Not short of pace as he showed last time but should stay 6f.
Chief Mankato won a Windsor novice (6f) on his debut last month. The son of Sioux Nation got up in the final strides last time. The runner-up has since gone onto finish third in the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot and the third and fourth won next time. He was withdrawn after playing up before the start of the Coventry Stakes but is open to improvement on just his second start.
Lake Forest overcame inexperience to win on his racecourse debut at Haydock 29 days ago. He looks speedy and is capable of better. The ground was quick at Haydock and that sort of going clearly suits the colt well.
Verdict: I wouldn’t be shocked if the once raced and unbeaten Purosangue, Chief Mankato & Lake Forest improved to win but Malc sets a high standard and can go on better than at Royal Ascot.
3:00 – bet365 Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 6f
Recent York first and second Quinault and Washington Heights are vying for favouritism. Kevin Ryan has booked Ryan Moore for the latter and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was to go off the clear favourite.
The first four in a York Heritage Handicap 26 days ago renew rivalry here. Quinault was completing a handicap five timer that day and although he’s up 5lb for that success I think that he may have an even better performance in him. The trainer has gone 34 runners and 24 days since a winner which is a slight concern but that apart he’s got a big chance.
Washington Heights has now finished second to Quinault on his last two starts. Only a head separated the pair at York and he gets a 1lb pull in the weights with the winner. He wouldn’t be winning a race like this out of turn and the booking of Ryan Moore is hardly a negative,
Mill Stream was a further 1 ½ lengths behind in third. Higley tried since winning on his juvenile racecourse debut. It was a good effort on handicap debut and he’s 4lb better off with the winner. Shouldn’t be far away and high on the shortlist.
Eminency was a nose behind Mill Stream in fourth. He gets cheekpieces for the first time and if the headgear has desired effect, then he will be there or thereabouts once more.
Andrew Balding saddled the winner of this in 2016 & 2018 and he runs Frankness. The fillylooked much improved when winning a Goodwood handicap two starts back. She was slowly away and 1f out when a 5 ¾ length 6th of 26 in the Palace of Holyroodhouse Handicap (5f) at Royal Ascot last time. Remains on a good mark with the return to 6f is a plus and could have handy draw is 17.
Be Frank looked much improved for an off season gelding operation when winning a Salisbury maiden on seasonal reappearance and improved further when successful on handicap debut at Windsor last month. He’s up 5lb and in a much deeper race but is going the right way. The only negative is stall 2 you must go back to 2016 to find a winner drawn lower than 7.
Verdict: The race of the day for me. Despite my concerns over the yard form, Quinault tops my shortlist. A low draw is a worry for the improving Be Frank but otherwise I like his claims. Frankness, from a yard that has won this race twice since 2016, has what could be a good draw in stall 17.
3:35 – Princess Of Wales’s Stakes (Sponsored By The Kingdom Of Bahrain) (Group 2) – 1m 4f
A disappointing turnout of just four for the feature race. Adayar won the Derby and King George in 2021 and last season was a ½ length runner-up to Bay Bridge in the Group 1 Champion Stakes at Ascot. The 5-year-old made a winning return in a Group 3 on the Rowley Mile before finishing a 4 ½ lengths 3rd of 6 to Mostahdaf in Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. The return to 1m 4f is a big plus and his stablemate Global Storm should ensure they go a decent gallop. He’s got 10lb in hand of his nearest market rival Israr who shouldn’t be good enough. Indeed, I wouldn’t be surprised if this didn’t turn out to be Charlie Appleby 1-2.
Verdict: A poor renewal and I would be shocked if long odds on favourite Adayar didn’t win. Stablemate Global Storm should get an uncontested lead and could be one for forecast players.
4:10 – British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Fillies’ Stakes – 6f
A race with several interesting newcomers amongst the ten runners.
Andrew Baldingwon this corresponding race with Frankella in 2021 and saddles racecourse debutant Miss Information. The daughter of Blue Point was a 90,000gns purchase as a yearling and her dam won on juvenile debut.
Richard Hannon relies on racecourse debutant Bourgeoisie rather than the more experienced Gaiden. The daughter of Siyouni cost 150,000gns as a yearling and her dam won as 2-year-old. Nicely bred and has to be respected for a trainer who is 6-29 21% +13 with his juveniles at the meeting.
Dubai Treasure a daughter of Exceed And Excel makes her juvenile debut but trainer Saeed Bin Suroor won this corresponding race with a newcomer in 2016 and she did have an entry for York on Friday.
Verdict: I think this could go to a newcomer and if there’s any money around for Dubai Treasure that market support should be heeded.
4:45 – Edmondson Hall Solicitors Sir Henry Cecil Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m
Nostrum third in last year’s Dewhurst Stakes makes a belated seasonal reappearance and will be short price to make it a winning one. The Sir Michael Stoute trained colt will be tough to beat if ready to roll after his injury.
He does face a couple of interesting unbeaten colts in the shape of Embesto and Imperial Emperor. Embesto has won both career starts and looks capable of being competitive in Group company.
Imperial Emperor is also unbeaten on both career starts. Shaped like a smart prospect when winning over C&D on his seasonal reappearance 19 days ago. There should be more to come from the colt who interestingly has displaced Nostrum as the bookies’ early bird favourite.
Mostabshir looked useful when making all to win a hot York novice in May. Thrown in the deep end when only a 7 ¾ lengths 6th of 9 to Paddington in the Group 1 St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. He will appreciate quick ground but although he drops in class this looks like a tough race.
Verdict: The early money for the unbeaten Imperial Emperor must be respected but Nostrum has the form in the book could go off a backable price.
5:20 – Boodles Handicap (Class 3) – 1m
Glenfinnan makes his belated seasonal reappearance and handicap debut. Made all to win a Yarmouth maiden on his final juvenile start and starts off in handicap company off what looks a workable mark.
Bodorgan ran well on his seasonal reappearance/handicap debut to finish 5th of 11 in the Silver Bowl at Haydock two starts back. Only 7th of 12 at Sandown (good to firm) last time but Ryan Moore who rode him to win a Newmarket novice last autumn is back in the saddle. That Newmarket success came on good to soft so he might not want the ground to quick. I think he’s on a winnable mark and is a big player.
Good Karma looked progressive when winning Newbury novice (7f) on his return to action. By no means disgraced when a 8 length 11th of 29 to Docklands in Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot last time. He remains capable of more improvement and looks interesting taking on older rivals for the first time. One for the shortlist.
Titian finished a neck 2nd of 22 in Doncaster’s Spring Mile (heavy) two starts back. Probably didn’t stay 1m 1f when a 5 length 6th of 17 at Newmarket last time. Drop back to a mile will suit and he’s on a handy mark but will the ground be too quick for him.
Greatgadian is now below his last winning mark and the reapplied cheekpieces replace the blinkers but he’s a hard horse to win with and I think he’s better in the all-weather. I wouldn’t be shocked if he won but he’s not for me.
Verdict: A tricky getting out race where I’m going with 3-year-olds. Bodorgan is better than he was able to show last time, and the booking of Ryan Moore is a positive one. Good Karma is capable of better on just his second start in handicap company and if you fancy him, I certainly wouldn’t put you off.
Betting Advice:
Newmarket
1:50 – Klondike – 1pt win – 17/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
3:00 – Quinault – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Be Frank – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Bet365.
The prices have gone on my final two selections sadly but these are the minimum prices I would take.
5:20 – Bodorgan – 1pt win – 9/2 & bigger and Good Karma – 1pt win – 5/1 @ bigger
Cheers
John