Hi all,
It was almost a fantastic Wednesday with Baldomero going so close in the Kempton feature yesterday evening.
The most valuable race on Thursday is the Grade 2 Clonmel Oil Chase (2:50) at Clonmel. Just the four are set to go to post but they include double Ryanair Chase winner Allaho. The 9-year-old returns to the track for the first time since winning a Grade 1 (3m) at the 2022 Punchestown Festival. If he’s retained most of his old ability, he should be able to see of stablemate Janidil and his biggest rival could turn out be French Dynamite. He’s the clear class act at his best but at 1/3 after problems with his spleen I can happily sit this one out.
Newbury
There’s a decent enough card at Newbury this afternoon for its first jumps meeting of the season. It should be an entertaining and informative card. The going on Wednesday afternoon was being described as good to soft which is much softer than 12 months ago when it was closer to good to firm.
There are four handicaps on the card, and I have had a look at all four of them.
12:05 – Bet In Running On BetVictor Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) – 2m ½ f
Brentford Hope seems at his best on soft ground.Won two of his six starts over hurdles last season both wins coming after switching to present trainer Harry Derham. Well backed 11/4 favourite but only 6th of 17 in the valuable Swinton Handicap Hurdle at Haydock in May. Capable of better and easier ground and a drop in class should see him in a better light
Brookie looked much improved when beating three rivals on first start for new trainer Anthony Honeyball at Fontwell last month. A 6lb rise in the weights doesn’t look to harsh and the 6-year-old should go well again with race fitness on his side.
Grivetana was a 6 length 2nd of 7 in last year’s race and is 5lb lower this time around. The mare wasn’t at her best on her final four starts last season, but she’s had a summer breathing operation and starts her campaign of what looks a potentially winnable mark.
Sergeant Wilson is talented enough butcan be keen in his races so the forecast strong pace should suit. Needs to bounce back from a poor seasonal reappearance at Southwell 37 days ago. If he can get settled early in the race, he’s on a handy mark.
1:15 – Watch Weekend Winners With BetVictor Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 3) – 2m 7 ½ f
A trappy enough novices handicap chase with several of the leading contenders making their chasing debuts. It’s a race that could produce plenty of future winners and is worth noting with the future in mind.
Knowsley Road did well over hurdles last season winning his first two starts. Disappointing when beaten favourite (15/8) here in a handicap hurdle on his final start last season. Returns from a 7 month layoff but won first time up last year. Should do well over fences this season and in with a good chance if staying 3m.
Theatre Man improved with each of his four starts over hurdles last season. Jumped well over the smaller obstacles and is bred to be even better over fences this season. Hopefully will be handily positioned in a race which doesn’t look like it will be strongly run.
Neon Moon failed to win any of his seven starts over the larger obstacles last season but shaped with plenty of promise on several occasions including over C&D in the spring. Looked better than ever when making a winning seasonal return at Ludlow 14 days ago. Up 6lb but his chase experience could be valuable in a race like this.
Inch House, an expensive purchase after winning an Irish point, improved with each start over hurdles last season winning a Chepstow novice hurdle in February over today’s distance. Expected do better over fences and duly shaped with plenty of encouragement, despite a bad mistake, when 3rd of 7 at Chepstow last month. Capable of better in the sphere and one to take seriously.
Pulling Stumps was another to improve on each of his four starts over hurdles and ended last season with a good 6 ½ length 2nd of 12 on handicap hurdle debut at Uttoxeter in March. Connections don’t hang about and are quick to send him over fences. Should win races over fences but this looks a hot race.
2:25 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (Class 2) – 3m
Bold Endeavour produced three cracking efforts back over hurdles last spring, finishing 5th of 26 in the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival and runner-up in two valuable handicap hurdles. He’s another unexposed over 3m+. Returns from an 180-day layoff should go well even under top-weight of 12-0.
Equinus returned to action with a comfortable success at Aintree 11 days ago. That was a conditional jockey’s race, so doesn’t have a penalty to carry and is 9lb well in here. Unexposed over staying trips and will be tough to beat.
Dolphin Square is a previous C&D winner and there are a few positives to think he can go well on his seasonal return. His form figures off a 121-day break are 2221 and is and he can race off a 4lb lower mark than when winning at Sandown on his seasonal return last season. His best form has a come in strongly run races on soft/heavy ground so if the rain was to arrive in a decent amount, then his chance would be enhanced. The only negatives are he will be ridden by his owner Mr David Maxwell and he might get the strong gallop he needs.
3:00 – Get A Run For Your Money At BetVictor Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 2m 4f
Killer Clown ison a nine long losing run. His best run last season came when 2 length 3rd of 12 to one of today’s rivals Gloire D’athon at Uttoxeter in May. Gets a handy 7lb pull in the weights with that one not including his jockey’s 5lb claim. Now 6lb below his last winning mark and will appreciate the drying ground. Not the most of consistent of horses and the cheekpieces return.
Eden Du Houx, returns from a wind-op. Pulled up in a much better race over C&D in March and is better judged on his ½ length 2nd of 9 at Sandown in March. Same mark as at Sandown but may need softer ground to win.
Gloire D’athon was nicely progressive last season winning four of six starts over fences. Below par effort at Market Rasen in July but the ground was probably too soft for him that day. Has gone well fresh in the past and has a chance on ground no worse than good to soft.
Raffle Ticket won two of his four starts over fences last season and was still in contention when falling three out in the Uttoxeter race won by Gloire D’athon in May. Probably capable of better over fences and high on the shortlist.
Gallop De Chasse is in a slightly better race here on seasonal return but Venetia Williams has hit the ground running this month with her handicap chasers and she saddled the winner of this in 2017.
Northern Bound beat three rivals to win last year’s race and this looks a deeper race but he’s 9lb lower than last year. Has race fitness on his side and was back to form last time when a 2 lengths 3rd of 6 at Wetherby 22 days ago. Not discounted off what looks a good mark.
Kandoo Kid has only had three starts since winning an Ascot novice hurdle in October 2021. Plenty of promise to be taken from his chase debut effort when a 24 length 2nd of 6 to the improving Nickle Back at Warwick last month. Should be capable of winning races over fences.
Betting Advice:
Newbury
1:15 – Theatre Man – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:25 – Bold Endeavor – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:00 – Raffle Ticket – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Gallop De Chasse – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John