Hi all,
A great day on Saturday with wins by the Third Wind and the ultra-brave Captain Chaos to give us a solid profit on the day. And, yet it could have been even better with 2pt selection Demachine finishing runner-up in the Reynoldstown and Achille occupying the same spot in the Grand National Trial at Haydock.
It’s been a good week profitable week for the service and it piles the pressure on for Sunday to end the week on a high note.
Newbury takes centre stage today. ITV are covering four races from Newbury, two from Market Rasen and the Grade 2 Boyne Hurdle from Navan. The latter races see’s Tiger Roll back on the comeback trail for a spring campaign and stablemate Fury Road hoping to get back on track and stake his claims for the Stayers Hurdle.
For today’s long preview I have concentrated on the four races that ITV are covering from Newbury.
Newbury
The milder weather means the going at Newbury for Betfair Hurdle Day is being officially described as good to soft, soft in places. I don’t think it will be as quick as 12 months ago but it certainly isn’t going to be the bottomless conditions that we have seen most of this winter.
1:50 – Betfair Weighed-In Podcast Weekly Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 3m
Eighteen are set to go to post for this handicap hurdle which was won last season by the Nick Williams trained One For The Team. Two of the eighteen runners Everglow & Mont Condtions had entries at Haydock on Saturday.
Sizeable Sam’s three hurdle starts this season have come at Wincanton. The 6-year-old has won his last two. Improving nicely to win on his handicap hurdle debut last month, despite looking inexperienced. Has been raised 7lb for his last win but he’s capable of better and connections think he could be up to graded level going forward.
Southfield Harvest also improved for his handicap hurdle debut when 2nd of 9 (beaten a neck) at Wincanton last time. Up 5lb for that effort but the 7-year-old has only had the four starts over hurdles and is open to more improvement.
Dhowin looked in need of a step up to 3m when finishing 3rd of 12 at Ascot two starts back and that was confirmed by his effort when 5th of 20 in last month’s Lanzarote Hurdle (2m 5f) at Kempton.
Palmers Hill returns to hurdling after a disappointing chase debut at Taunton last month. Prior to that the 8-year-old had returned from 461-day break to finish a neck 2nd of 17 at Kempton last February. Not the easiest to keep sound but a big field suits and he’s only had five runs over hurdles. Kempton run came on good to soft so the drying ground should be a positive.
At bigger odds Vive Le Roi is worth considering two of best three RPR’s have come over C&D. Now the 10-year-old hasn’t been running at that level of form of late but he was a credible 5th off 11 at Cheltenham last time.
Es Perfecto won a good ground maiden hurdle back in October and finished runner-up to the smart Bravesmansgame here on his last start 78-days ago. He’s probably flattered by his proximity to the winner that day but must be respected on his handicap debut given trainer Alan King saddled the winner of this race in 2018.
The drying ground and the form of the Emma Lavelle stable (4-7 in the past 14-days) brings Silent Assistant firmly into the mix. The 7-year-old is 0-6 over hurdles but has finished runner-up on his two starts this season. The first of those came at Cheltenham in handicap company off 6lb lower and last time he showed he stayed 3m in maiden hurdle at Doncaster 72-days ago. His jumping will be tested here but he’s got each way claims and can win a race off his present mark.
Verdict: Plenty in with a chance here. Of those at the front end of the market. I like the claims of the Jeremy Scott trained Sizeable Sam. Provided the going is good to soft and no worse Silent Assistant has good each way claims.
1pt win – Sizeable Sam – 11/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
1pt each way – Silent Assistant – 14/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds)
2:25 – Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) – 2m 7 ½ f
Clan Des Obeaux won this race when it was run atAscot two years ago. Last seasons King George VI winner also made a highly encouraging seasonal return when runner-up in the Betfair Chase at Haydock. Looked very laboured when a well beaten in this seasons King George VI so has questions to answer after that run. However, maybe that came to quick after his Haydock effort on heavy ground.
Lostintranslation last seasons Betfair Chase winner and Gold Cup third has even more questions to answer than Clan Des Obeaux after two poor runs this season. He’s had a second wind-op since pulling up in the King George VI. Clear chance on his best form last season and the better ground will suit the 9-year-old.
The two at the heading of the betting have a big class advantage over the rest of the five likley runners. Should both underperform again. Who can take advantage?
Kalashnikov has run plenty of races over fences, albeit over shorter than 3m, runner-up to Mister Fisher in the Peterborough Chase (2m 4f) at Cheltenham last time but hasn’t won since April 2019. Stamina to prove for 3m.
Venetia Williams won this with Houblon Des Obeaux in 2016. She saddles Cepage here. The 9-year-old has high class handicap chase form won at Cheltenham last January and bounced back to form when winning on his second start of this season at Chepstow 43-days ago. Just one start beyond 2m 5f when 7th in the valuable Ultima Handicap Chase at last seasons Cheltenham Festival. Another with stamina to prove but he looks a big price.
Secret Investor was sent off the joint favourite for the Ladbroke Trophy but his jumping let him down in a big field. Prior to that the 9-year-old had impressed when making virtually all to win at Chepstow (good) on his seasonal reappearance. He was a respectable second to Native River in this race 12 months ago. Today’s smaller field will suit and the drier the ground the better.
Not a race I’m going to have a bet in but should the front two fail to perform and the going is good to soft, no worse, Secret Investor could be the one take advantage.
3:00 – Betfair Game Spirit Chase (Grade 2) – 2m ½ f
No Altior but all eyes on stablemate Champ who makes his seasonal reappearance here rather than the Denman Chase. An enigma wrapped in a puzzle last seasons RSA Novices’ Chase winner looked like a four miler when getting up in the final strides to win at Cheltenham. First run since wind surgery. He’s a Grade 1 horse where his five rivals are probably not.
Greaneteen won the Haldon Gold Cup on his seasonal return but seemed to find Grade 1 company to hot when runner-up to stablemate Politologue in the Tingle Creek last time. Needs to improve to win this but the 7-year-old remains progressive.
Sceau Royal finished runner-up to Altior in this race 12 months ago. Started this season over hurdles winning the Welsh Champion Hurdle and the Grade 2 Elite Hurdle at Wincanton. Fell at the fifth returned to fences in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton over Christmas. Get’s a handy 6lb from Greaneteen here and this could be his day.
Fanion D’Estruval won over C&D on his stable debut last season. He’s run well on all three starts this season without winning. He finished runner-up to one of today’s rivals Magic Saint on his seasonal return at Cheltenham and hadn’t come off the bridle when coming down three out in the Peterborough Chase on his next start. Not disgraced when putting up a career best on RPR’s when fourth in the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase. The return to going back left-handed will suit the 6-year-old and he’s unexposed.
Verdict: Champ is unbeaten on his four startsat Newbury and a perfect 4-4 on good to soft but can he beat specialist two milers at their own game. He’s got the class to win that’s for sure. His biggest challenger could turn out to be Fanion D’Estruval.
1pt win – Champ – 9/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
3:35 – Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) – 2m ½ f
Twenty-four have been declared for the betting race of the weekend if not the month. One of them Friend Or Foe was due to run at Wincanton on Saturday. I could make a good case for half of the runners.
Nicky Henderson won this in 2013 with My Tent Or Yours and he’s got a couple of lively contenders in Mister Coffey & Buzz. The former looked good when winning a handicap at Sandown on his seasonal return. Probably found the ground to heavy back at the same venue a month later when 3rd of 10 behind Benson. The 6-year-old won on his hurdle debut over C&D last season. He’s only had four starts over hurdles and remains in the could be anything category.
Stablemate Buzz is more experienced he’s had six start over hurdles, winning three of them. A winner at Ascot in November. He put in a career best on RPR’s when runner-up to Not So Sleepy in a valuable handicap hurdle at Ascot before Christmas. Henderson has booked Kevin Brogan to take off a handy 5lb off the top-weights back.
Soaring Glory beat leading Ballymore hope Bravemansgame on his seasonal return at Chepstow. Before finishing runner-up, trying to give 6lb, to a useful Henderson novice Dusart over C&D. Fell when the most likely winner at Wetherby two starts back. Last time out was a good third in a Grade 2 at Ascot in December. The 6-year-old must be considered a big player.
Alan King saddles a couple of last time out winners in Edwardstone who looks an ideal type for the race but is a 7-year-old. As is stablemate On To Victory who won a Wincanton maiden hurdle last month and won the November handicap on the level.
Annual Invictus bids for the four timer. The 6-year-old makes his handicap hurdle debut off a workable mark of 135 and looks a lively each way contender with Richard Johnson an eyecatching jockey booking.
Dan Skelton has laid Cadzand out for the race. Like the favourite, Cadzand is a novice. The 6-year-old has been steadily progressive since going hurdling winning his last two starts at Warwick and a handicap at Kempton over Christmas. On the latter occasion he beat recent Musselburgh scorer Christopher Wood by 3 ¼ lengths. He’s 9lb higher here but he’s an improver and remains my idea of the winner.
Milkwood has only had the six start over hurdles. He put in a career best on RPR’s when 3rd here over C&D. He was still travelling strongly when badly hampered two out that day. The 7-year-old finished his race off strongly and with a clearer passage would probably have won. He can race off the same mark here and trainer Neil Mulholland had had this race in mind all season for him.
Thyme Hill had impressed when winning on his seasonal return at Chepstow (good) in October. The 5-year-old was still in contention when unseating his rider two out at Newbury and hampering Milkwood in the process. Like Milkwood, he’s another the better ground brings into the mix.
Galice Macalo won her first two start over hurdles this season and then finished one place ahead of Mister Coffey behind Benson at Sandown two starts back. There shouldn’t be much between the pair at the revised weights on that running. The mare was then sent off just 3/1 for the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle on her next start but she pulled away any chance she had in the early stages. If you forgive her last run, she would have a chance.
At even bigger odds don’t rule out a big run from Night Edition. The 5-year-old showed he was well suited to a big field when finishing 2nd of 22 in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at last season’s Cheltenham Festival. Very disappointing when well beaten on his seasonal return in Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle at Ascot before Christmas but may have needed the run that day and trainer David Pipe has his horses in much better form now. Granted he could be aimed at Cheltenham again but I could see him outrunning his odds here.
Verdict: A race you can have three or four darts at and not get one of them into the places. Cadzand has been my idea of the winner for some time. Soaring Glory ticks plenty of boxes and like Cadzand is unexposed. Mister Coffey is better than he’s third place at Sandown last time and could be a graded hurdler. Annual Invictus has been a steady improver and can’t be ruled out. The drying ground brings both Mikwood & Thyme Hill into the mix with preference for the former although no horse older than six has won since 2004. Given the form of the David Pipe stable I could see big outsider Night Edition running a big race.
1pt win – Cadzand – 11/2 @ Bet365
1pt win – Mister Coffey – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt each way – Night Edition – 33/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
Cheers
John