Hi all,
I’m out at dinner this evening so I thought I better get out my New Year’s Day Preview out early.
ITV Racing are covering five races live from Cheltenham and two from Musselburgh this afternoon.
Cheltenham’s New Year’s Day fixture has traditionally been its best attended fixture outside of the festival. In terms of quality and competitiveness it’s usually the highlight of the day. However, just 49 have been declared for the seven races with just two of them having more than six runners. Granted we’ve just had a week of top-class racing but still it’s a disappointing turnout.
From a betting perspective the all-weather card at Newcastle emerges as a competitive alternative to Cheltenham, boasting six Class 2 handicaps and a substantial prize pool of £153,651 for a seven-race card. If this was a Saturday card on ITV we would rightfully be excited.
Cheltenham
The ITV action gets underway with the Close Brothers Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (12:55). It looks between last time winners Matata, Libberty Hunter and Fine Casting. Libberty Hunter impressed with his jumping when winning at Wincanton on heavy ground 13 days ago. He’s 10lb higher here but open to further improvement.
Just five are set to go to post for the Paddy Power Handicap Chase (1:30). For a race with £50,000 in guaranteed prize money it’s a dreadful turnout. Inch House bids for the hat trick after two wins at Newbury. He’s now 7lb higher but remains well ahead of the handicapper. Softer ground than last time but he should be fine on it.
The Paddy Power New Year’s Day Handicap Chase (2:05) has £100,000 in guaranteed prize money yet just six have been declared. Paddy Power winner Stage Star heads the betting. He’s now 10lb higher bit given how well he runs Cheltenham he will be tough to beat. His nearest market rival Richmond Lake is progressive but did have a hard race when winning at Haydock 23 days ago.
Shakem Up’Arry is another who goes well around here. He ran well for a long way before his stamina ran out from two out when a 19 ½ 6th of 20 in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury. He can a win a nice handicap dropped back in trip, but Stage Star is a formidable opponent even getting 26lb.
The Paddy Power Handicap Hurdle (2:40) is a rarity on the card in that’s there are more than eight runners. Ed Keeper looked like an improving staying handicap hurdle when storming to victory in a Pertemps Series qualifier at Newbury last month. He’s got a 9lb rise in the weights for his latest win but he’s capable of more improvement so can defy it. Butch won a novice over the distance here on the old course in October. He’s interesting back in handicap company.
The Grade 2 Dornan Engineering Relkeel Hurdle (3:15) sees just four runners set to meet the starter. Last year’s winner Marie’s Rock bids to retain her crown. On Official Ratings the mare should win but she can be keen in her races and might not settle in a small field with no pace. Strong Leader looks the sole pace angle and should get an uncontested lead but might prefer less testing ground. That leaves Irish challenger Bob Olinger. The 9-year-old looked back to something like his best when winning a Grade 2 at Navan 44 days ago. Two & half miles is his trip, and he goes well on testing ground. I wouldn’t be surprised if he went off favourite ahead of Marie’s Rock.
Musselburgh
1:10 – In This World bounced back to formwhen a 2 ¼ length 5th of 12 to Go Dante at Cheltenham 17 days ago. The 6-year-old didn’t get the best of runs between the final two hurdles that day. Off the same mark here and look interesting stepped up to 2m 4f. Matchless won here (1m 7 ½ f) two starts back and has since improved to finish a nose 2nd of 6 at Doncaster (2m 3 ½ f) last month. Just 1lb higher and interesting back at Musselburgh. Benson won this by 11 lengths 12 months ago. He’s 8lb higher this time around. Not at his best on two starts this but wasn’t disgraced when 4th of 10 at Aintree last time. Yard going better now and in the mix. Holmes St Georges was runner-up 12 months ago and was behind Benson at Aintree last time. That was his first start for 7 months though and he’s likely to be straighter here. Could get into the frame if he is.
2:20 – Frere D’Armes is just 1lb higher than when a ½ length 2nd of 8 to Boothill at Ascot 37 days ago. He takes a drop in class here and should go close provided the ground isn’t top soft. Corrigeen Rock was two places and 8 lengths behind Frere D’Armes last time. He’s been dropped 1lb since but will likely face pressure for the lead from Fidelio Vallis. The latter is consistent handicapper and goes well around here but his stamina for an extended 2m 4 ½ f will be tested by soft ground. Bass Rock ran poorly on seasonal return in the Listed Colin Parker Chase at Carlisle in November (yard badly out of form at the time) so has questions to answer but he’s down in class here and remains capable of better over fences.
Newcastle
Here’s a quick look at an ultra-competitive and valuable seven race Newcastle card.
2:00 – Evaluation on just second start since joining Charlie Johnston yard looked unlucky not finish closer when a 4 ¼ length 5th of 14 to one of today’s rivals Duke of Oxford at Kempton last month. He gets a 5lb pull in the weights with the winner and looks capable of winning off his present mark.
3:10 – To Catch A Thief got the run of the race out in front when winning over C&D on handicap debut last month. Going the right way and capable of going well off 6lb higher. Sir Busker finished 1 ¾ lengths behind in that race but would have a preferred a stronger gallop. Get’s a 5lb pull in the weights from To Catch A Thief and likely to be thereabouts. Teumessias Fox is probably slightly better over further but he’s a previous C&D winner and was a respectable 3 ½ length 5th of 13 in November Handicap at Newcastle here (1m 4f) last time. That was the 5-year-old’s first start since August so he may have needed the run. If they go a good gallop, he can go close. King’s Code has a 5lb penalty to carry for winning at Wolverhampton 6 days ago and isn’t discounted.
3:45 – Symbol Of Light went close over C&D on stable debut for Julie Camachoin Juneand was back to form when an unlucky in the run 1 ½ length 3rd of 9 at Kempton 42 days ago. Looks the one to beat with Tom Marquand booked.
4:15 – Julia Augusta is interesting on tapeta debut and can go well if not inconvenienced by the three furlongs drop in distance.
4:45 – Sommelier bids for the hat trick after wins at Chelmsford and Kempton. He’s switched to King Power since his latest win and looks on a workable mark on handicap debut. The one to beat if stall 2 isn’t an inconvenience. Brave Empire is another seeking a hat track. The colt is having his first start since winning at Redcar in June. Not sure what’s kept the colt off the track, but he’s respected on handicap/all-weather debut from a handy good draw in stall 10. Loaded Gun is more exposed that the other pair but could get into the places.
5:15 – This is the most competitive race of the day and a cracker of a 6f handicap.
Brewing returned from a 7 month absence and wasn’t inconvenienced by the drop back to 6f when winning over C&D 51 days ago. The lightly raced 5-year-old is 3-3 at Newcastle and a 4lb rise doesn’t look harsh. Batal Dubai won over C&D in June and was back to winning ways at Chelmsford 74 days ago. A 5lb rise makes life tougher but not of it. Pendleton returned to winning ways over C&D last time. Up 3lb in a better race but he’s unexposed on the surface and is another for the shortlist. Previous C&D winner Fivethousandtoone isn’t the easiest to win with, but he does get the first time visor here and if the new headgear has the desired effect is handicapped to be competitive. Albasheer dead-heated in a valuable 6f handicap at York’s Ebor Festival. Not disgraced when third in a Listed race over C&D last time. Needs to be produced as late as possible and if he gets the race run to suit and all the cards fall right is handicapped to go close. Way To Dubai wasn’t fazed by the drop back to 6f when a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 11 to Intervention at Lingfield 19 days ago. The winner has gone in again, so the form of that race looks solid. Today’s stiffer 6f should suit the 5-year-old and he looks interesting off a mark of 90 on just his second start at 6f.
Betting Advice:
As was the case on Saturday, my final selections and betting advice will be with you on Monday morning.
Cheers
John