Hi all,
ITV are covering four races from Cheltenham and two from Musselburgh this afternoon. I have had look at seven races from both tracks and today’s betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Cheltenham
It looks a good card with even the two Grade 2 races, in particular the Relkeel Hurdle, looking interesting contests. The going at Cheltenham was being described as good to soft on Saturday afternoons so it could be no excuses for not running ground.
12:45 – AIS Handicap Chase (3m 2 ½ f)
Thirteen go to post for this Class 2 race which sadly isn’t on ITV. Fairnet is sure to be popular after his impressive win at Chepstow last time. He’ll be a short price to follow up here and I think the 8-year-old is worth taking on.
The Wolf was runner-up to Lord Accord on his seasonal reappearance but failed to fire in the Becher Chase at Aintree 29-days ago. He finished a 2 ¼ length 2nd of 11 in last year’s race. Can miss out the odd fence but if can produce a clear round and bounces back to form he’s got a decent chance.
Rapper was doing his best work at the finish when a back to form 11 length 3rd of 10 at Haydock (3m 1 ½ f) last month. He shaped that day like he might still have needed the run. Down to his last winning mark the 9-year-old races in the first time cheekpieces today.
1:20 – Paddy Power Novices’ Chase (Registered as The Dipper Novices’ Chase) (2m 4 ½ f)
Six have been declared for this Grade 2 contest. The bookies ‘early bird’ favourite favourite is Monmiral who finished a 7 length 2nd of 3 to Jonbon at Warwick on his chase debut. I want to take the 6-year-old though. Thunder Rock has won both starts over the larger obstacles and looks worth his place in the line-up.
At the prices though I like the claims of The Real Whacker. He looked a useful novice chase prospect when winning a novice chase here on his debut over fences. This a is a step up in class for the 7-year-old, but I think the bookies have underestimated his chance.
1:55 – Paddy Power New Year’s Day Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (2m 4 ½ f)
Midnight River gained his second win over fences at Stratford on his seasonal return. And he bettered that performance when an eye-catching 3 ¼ length 3rd of 14 in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase here in November. Races off the same mark here and looks a worthy enough favourite. Il Ridoto was 1 ¾ length back in 4th in the Paddy Power and is another with obvious claims.
Stolen Silver was sent off the favourite (4/1) in the Paddy Power. He was still in contention when making a mistake and unseating his rider three out that day. A winner over C&D in April he seems best on a sound surface and if the ground remains on the good side won’t be far away.
Shakem Up’Arry made it 2-6 over fences when making a winning seasonal return at Exeter last month. The handicapper has raised him 5lb for that success which isn’t harsh and he looks capable of better here if taking to the track.
Happygolucky ran a cracker when a 4 length 3rd of 9 to L’Homme Presse in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle (2m 7 ½ f). That was the 9-year-old first start for 595-days so he’s entitled to have needed the run that day. Not sure about the about the drop back in distance on good ground but the forecast strong pace will suit, and he’s won around here in the past. He remains capable of better and is one for the shortlist.
2:30 – careers@dornangroup.com Relkeel Hurdle (Grade 2) (2m 4 ½ f)
Marie’s Rock ended last season in tremendous form winning here final three starts including the Grade 1 Mares Hurdle at the Festival and the Grade 1 Mares Hurdle at Punchestown Returns from an 8 month layoff here and with other targets in mind may just need the run.
Her stablemate First Street looked an improved hurdler when winning the Gerry Fielden Hurdle at Newbury on seasonal return. He handled the good ground well that day and showed a liking for Cheltenham when a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 26 to State Man in the County Hurdle at the Festival. Needs to have improved from Newbury but that’s possible.
I Like To Move It was a smart novice hurdler last season and took his form to a new level when making all to win the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle here on his seasonal return. First run beyond 2m 1f but could be suited by the step up in trip. Looks worth his place in the line-up and could be capable of better.
Knappers Hill ended last season with two wins and has continued winning ways this season. Completed the four timer when making all to win the Grade 2 Elite Hurdle at Wincanton last time. Could be capable of better and is very much in the mix.
Botox Has ended last season with a win the Grade National Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell. And the 7-year-old improved again for the step up to 3m when winning the valuable Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle at Haydock in November.
Brewin’upastorm is an in and out performer but was on a going day when beaten a head by Botox Has in the National Spirit (12lb better off today) and was challenging the eventual winner when falling at the last in this 12 months ago.
3:05 – Paddy Power Handicap Hurdle (3m)
Eleven are set to go to post for the concluding handicap and like the previous two handicaps its another competitive race. In fact, you can make good cases for nine of the eleven runners.
Jet Of Magic looked set to make it 2-2 since joining the Paul Nicholls but for a bad mistake two out at Taunton last time. Up 4lb and in a better race but respected.
Abuffalosoldier improved for the step up to 3m when making 2-4 over hurdles at Newbury 37-days ago. The second & third have won since to give the form a solid look. There should be more to come over this trip.
Top-weight Thomas Derby has a touch of class if on a going day. He won the Grade Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury last season but was well beaten in that race this year. Down in class here and not without a chance but questions to answer after last time.
Hector Javilex, twice a winner over hurdles in March, seems to be progressing with racing as he showed when a 5 ¼ length 4th of 18 here (2m 5f) in November. Looks interesting on the step up to 3m and is one for the shortlist.
Dolphin Square, won this race 12 months ago from 4lb lower. Fortunate to win on reappearance at Sandown (soft) when Call Me Lord’s jockey eased up before the line. Call Me Lord took advantage of some leniency from the handicapper when winning at in November and should have followed up at Sandown last time.
Wilde About Oscar had been in the doldrums last seasons but bounced back to form stepped up to 3m for the first time when a short neck back in third in the Sandown race won by Dolphin Square. He’s well-treated if backing up his last time effort but may prefer softer ground.
Bridge North. twice a winner over hurdles last season, was an encouraging 5th of 11 at Aintree on his seasonal return in October. He was never travelling at Sandown (11/4) and was pulled up in the race won by Dolphin Square last time. He was said to have disliked the soft ground that day but both last season’s wins did come on soft. Questions to answer after that lifeless run. However, he seems on a good mark if bouncing back here.
Musselburgh
On Saturday morning the going at Musselburgh was being soft, good to soft in places. Plenty of rain was being forecast for the track so I don’t think there will be any good left on that going description by the time racing gets underway.
1:35 – Fitzdares “Auld Reekie” Handicap Chase (2m 4 ½ f)
Pay The Piper was much better for his Ayr seasonal reappearance when a 2 ¾ lengths 3rd of 6 at Kelso last month. He went close over C&D in February but does need to jump better than he did last time. However, he’s become well-handicapped and when his jumping comes together, he can win a race like this.
Copper’s Cross looked like a progressive handicap chaser when winning at Carlisle on his seasonal reappearance. Raised 8lb for that success he posted a career best on RPR’s when a 5 ½ length 3rd of 13 to Brave Seasca at Aintree last month. Remains on a competitive mark and another big run can be expected.
2:45 – Fitzdares Hogmaneigh Handicap Hurdle (1m 7 ½ f)
Al Zaraqaan a useful performer on the flat the 6-year-old has taken well to hurdling and completed a four timer when winning over C&D (soft) last month. He’s up 9lb for that win and up a couple of notches in class but remains capable of better. A worthy market leader and the one to beat if he does find that further improvement.
Socialist Agenda won a C&D handicap hurdle in February off 4lb lower and returned from a 4 month lay off with a solid enough effort back here when a 3 length 2nd of 6 to Al Zaraqaan 27-days ago. Gets a handy 9lb pull in the weights but he was put firmly in his place by the winner that day who seemed to have plenty in hand. He’s got each way claims a yard among the winners.
Another of the favourites biggest rivals looks to be the John Quinn trained 6-year-old First Impression. A mostly consistent dual purpose performer, a winner on the flat at Ayr, he’s run well on both starts since returning to hurdling. He holds no secrets from the handicapper and is vulnerable to any improvers but should give his running once more.
Betting Advice:
Cheltenham
12:45 – Rapper – 1pt win – 17/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and The Wolf – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Bet365
1:20 – The Real Whacker – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
1:55 – Happygolucky – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Midnight River – 1pt win – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:30 – First Street – 1pt win – 11/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
3:05 – Hector Javilex – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Bet365 and Bridge North – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John