Hi all,
Happy New Year everyone. It’s hard to believe that another year has passed us by. Although, I’m not sure whether it’s gone fast or not.
Anyway, back on point. There’s a good card at Cheltenham today and a big crowd is expected at the home of jumps racing. The ITV cameras are covering four races live from Cheltenham, three from Musselburgh and as a bonus the Grade 3 Savills New Year’s Day Chase at Tramore (2:20). A race which sees the annual return of former double Gold Cup winner Al Boum Photo.
I start today’s preview at Cheltenham and the New Year’s Day betting advice is at the end of the piece.
Cheltenham
The going at Cheltenham is being described as soft and we haven’t seen that sort of going so far at the track this season. The first race I’m looking at sadly isn’t being covered by the ITV cameras.
12:50 – New Four Eighty Restaurant At Cheltenham Festival Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 3m 2 ½ f
Honest Vic has won here over hurdles in the past. The 9-year-old has made a good start to chasing career. Handicap chase debut off what looks a workable mark and trip that should suit. Slight concern about the ground but at around 7/1 he’s drifted to a decent price.
Destinee Royale a winner at Wetherby in February. The mare failed by just a short head to follow up at Haydock, off 9lb higher, the following month. Her jumping was good at Haydock and despite a further 2lb rise in the weights remains on a good mark. First start for 283-days but has won fresh off a similar lay off in the past and trainer Venetia Williams is 8 winners from 33 runners 24% +40.13 this season with her handicap chasers making their seasonal return. All three career wins have come on soft ground.
At bigger odds I can see Smooth Steeper go well. The 13-year-old is 2lb below last season’s winning mark. He shaped like he badly needed the run when 5th off 11 to Blaklion in a veteran’s chase at Haydock on his seasonal return last month. Get’s the first time cheekpieces today and the softer the ground the better for him and this is usually his time of the season – 4 wins from 12 starts in January & February. Each way claims.
1:25 – Paddy Power Novices’ Chase (Registered As The Dipper Novices’ Chase) (Grade 2) – 2m 4 ½ f
L’Homme Presse looked a smart novice chase prospect when making it 2-2 over fences when winning a graduation chase at Ascot last time. First run at Cheltenham and if he handles the track, he looks the one here. His biggest rival looks to be Glancing Queen. The mare also made it 2-2 over fences when winning a Listed Mares chase at Warwick last time. She gets the 5lb mares’ allowance here and is open to further improvement over fences.
2:00 – Paddy Power New Year’s Day Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) (Class 1) – 2m 4 ½ f
The big betting race of the day and with £56,950 on offer to the winner It’s unsurprisingly attracted a strong field of 16 handicap chasers.
Coole Cody gained his third course success when winning the Racing Post Gold Cup here last month. Up 4lb makes life tougher and he faces competition for the lead.
Zanza was a 2-length runner-up to Coole Cody. He get’s a 2lb pull in the weights today which entitles to get closer. Has been doing his best work at the end of his races so probably needs then go hard up front of he’s to get his head in front.
Heading the ante post market though is the Dan Skelton trained Alnadam. Twice a winner at Sandown last season. The 8-year-old goes well with plenty of give underfoot and the 9=year-old remains on a winnable mark. Trainer won this 12 months ago.
Simply The Bets made a solid start to his career with Paul Nicholls when 6th of 19 to Midnight Shadow in Paddy Power Gold Cup here at the November meeting. However, the 9-year-old could never get competitive when stepped up to 3m in the Many Clouds Chase at Aintree last month. Goes well here though and if he bounces back has claims.
Funambule Sivola took a hike in the weights for winning a handicap chase at Ascot back in March before finishing runner-up to Shishkin in a Grade 1 at Aintree. A good 4 ½ length 2nd of 6 to First Flow in Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon last time. In with a chance back in handicap company but he’s not the biggest of horses to carry to-weight of 11-10 here.
Riders Onthe Storm seemed to lose way on three starts last season. However, he bounced back to form when a 3 ¼ length 2nd of 10 to Clan Legend in a handicap chase at Aintree earlier in the month. It was a good start to his career for trainer Richard Hobson but he might be better going back right-handed.
Galahad Quest almost put in a career best when a staying-on 5th of 19 to Midnight Shadow in Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham in November. Still seemed to be going well when falling at the 9th in the Aintree race that Riders Onthe Storm finished second in. He should be able to win a decent handicap chase pot this season and will enjoys today’s ground.
2:35 – Paddy Power Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 3m
Pileon was beaten a short head in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle in March 2020. He’s returned to form on both his starts this autumn finishing 4th of 11 at Aintree. Before going on to win a Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier at Sandown earlier in the month. Up 6lb for that success but capable of another big run.
Fergal O’Brien saddles a couple of live contenders in Art Approval & Ask Dillon. Art Approval put in a career best when 4th of 12 here over 2m 4f. Before putting up an even better effort to win here last time(good) over 2m 5f. Both runs this season have come a sound surface but he did win on heavy 12 months. He should stay further than 2m 5f and although he’s up 8lb in better race I can see him going well.
Ask Dillon won over 3m here in April and is now 3lb below that mark today. Three poor runs this season but the 9-year-old bounced back to form when a 5 ¾ length 3rd of 9 to Kansas City Chief here last time. No problem with a return to softer ground, Can be hard ride as was once again in evidence last time but he can’t be dismissed either.
Botax Has showed he stayed 3m when a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 9 to Kansas City Chief at Cheltenham last time. If he can improve a bit more for softer ground he should be bang there again.
3:10 – Dornan Engineering Relkeel Hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m 4 ½ f
Not the strongest renewals of the Relkeel. Brewin’upastorm has looked a much better horse since returning to hurdling early in 2021. He put in a career best effort over hurdles when winning at Aintree 56-days ago. The one to beat although trainer Olly Murphy is only 1-30 in the past 14-days.
Interesting to see that Willie Mullins brings over Stormy Ireland. The mare quickly returned to form on the return to the Mullins yards last spring winning a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse. Before going on to win a Grade 1 mares’ hurdle at the Punchestown Festival. The 8-year-old probably needed her seasonal reappearance when well beaten behind Honeysuckle in the Grade 1 Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse in November.
I am not going to look at the Tramore race on ITV and in truth the three races at Musselburgh aren’t brilliant either. Although I have had a look at the feature race at 2:10.
Musselburgh
2:10 – Betway Hogmaneigh Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 1m 7 ½ f
Tommy’s Oscar bids for the hat trick after wins at Haydock and Doncaster. Up 3lb for that Doncaster success but Tom Midgley takes off 7lb which could prove vital. He’s a previous C&D winner and a worthy favourite. Despite the just the seven runners there will hopefully be a decent pace for him to chase.
Fiveandtwenty is 4-4 at the track, including twice over C&D including at this meeting 12 months ago. Not in the same form in two starts in much better company in the spring. Last of seven at Wetherby on her seasonal return and has had wind surgery since that dismal effort. Better can be expected back at venue that really suits. Her stablemate Blakeney Point won this race last year, off 1lb higher and isn’t totally out of this.
Betting Advice:
Cheltenham
12:50 –0.5pts each way Smooth Stepper – 40/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds) and 1pt win – Honest Vic – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:00 -1pt win – Galahad Quest – 10/1 @ Paddy Power & Bet365
2:35 – 1pt each way – Ask Dillon – 12/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Cheers
John