Hi all,
The start of a new month and we’re straight into the action.
Unusually for a Monday we have a big field competitive handicap to enjoy. At Windsor this evening it’s the Fitzdares Sprint Series Final with 16 declared for a race that wouldn’t be out of place on a Saturday.
I have selections in that race and another couple of fancies at Windsor and Cork.
Windsor
6:25 – Fitzdares Sprint Series Final Handicap – 6f
A competitive field for the evening feature at Windsor which has £75,000 in guaranteed prize money.
A good draw has been all important in recent seasons. Looking at the ten year trends. Those drawn 8 and higher are 1 winner from 42 runners 8 placed and not one winner has come out of double-digit stall. Mind you Treacherous was runner-up last year from stall 12 and Charimanoftheboard was third from stall 14.
Treacherous has once again landed on stall 12. You couldn’t really fancy the 8-year-old on this year’s form but he’s 7lb lower than when beaten a short head in last year’s race. He ran in Goodwood’s Stewards Cup consolation race like he did 12 months ago and goes well on a quick turnaround.
Indian Creek’s course and distance form figures are 11021 so can’t be easily ruled out. He found things happening a bit too quick over 5f at Goodwood last week. He ran well though when 7th of 15 to Lord Riddiford and shapes like he’s on a competitive mark back at 6f.
Lequinto made it 2-2 over C&D when winning a qualifier three weeks ago. He’s up 4lb but goes well on quick ground and should be bang there once more.
Aramis Grey won a qualifier on quick ground in May and shouldn’t be far away.
Total Commitment is on a 13 long losing run but the 6-year-old put in his best performance of the year when 2 ½ length 2nd of 11 at Southwell 12-days ago and he looks to have a handy draw in stall 2. He’s well handicapped on his 1 ¼ length 4th of 24 to Commanche Falls in last year’s Stewards Cup which came off an 8lb higher mark.
Interestingly 4-year-old’s have won nine of the last ten running’s of the race, the other win was a 3-year-old.
Runners from that age group drawn in a single figure draw are 9 winners from 21 runners +44.58 17 placed. There are just three qualifiers among the 16 runners in this year’s race: Get It, Chipstead and Colmbe.
Colmbe would be of more interest on easier ground which seems unlikely. There are no going problems for Chipstead. Oxted’s full brother was in cracking form at around this time last year completing a hat trick of wins in August/September. Looked set for a good season but hasn’t really fired on four starts this season. He’s now 1lb below his last winning mark and Frederick Larson takes off another 5lb.
Get It gained his second win of the season here over 5f two starts back and showed he remained in form when a 1 ½ length 3rd of 10 at Doncaster last time. It’s the top-weights first start beyond 5f but if he stays, he should go close.
Verdict: It’s the sort of race that you can have a couple of darts at going without finding one that places. My picks are Get It and Total Commitment.
8:00 – Pride Of Nepal has already had a good season winning two of his five starts. A close-up second over C&D two starts back. He wasn’t suited by a modestly run race at Salisbury last time when a 2 ¾ length 3rd of 6. Should get a better gallop to chase back down to 1m 2f and he also gets the first time cheekpieces. If the headgear can eke out a bit more improvement, he should be bang there at the finish.
Cork
4:35 – Yulong Voice and The Big Chap were separated by 2 ¼ lengths when the pair were first and second in a Limerick handicap hurdle 11-days ago. At the revised weights there shouldn’t be much between the pair once more. The 1f furlong shorter trip may suit The Big Chap slightly better but Yulong Voice had a bit in hand that day and the forecast strong pace will also help him.
Betting Advice:
Windsor
6:25 – 1pt win – Get It – 10/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Total Commitment – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
8:00 – 1pt win – Pride Of Nepal – 6/1 @ Bet365
Cork
4:35 – 1pt win – Yulong Voice – 9/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – The Big Chap – 9/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John