Hi all,
On the eve of the Punchestown Festival there’s Class 2 handicap (3:00) at Pontefract on Monday which has attracted a good sized field. And there are two Class 3 handicap chases at Kempton which have attracted competitive fields. The day’s most valuable card is at Naas where today’s feature is the Listed Woodlands Stakes (6:40).
There’s some rain forecast for Pontefract where the going was being described as good to soft on Sunday afternoon. There’s also some rain forecast for Naas where the going was soft, heavy in places on Sunday.
There’s a bit of uncertainty about how much rain there will be at Kempton. The weather app I consult suggests 10mm of rain on Monday. They have been watering at Kempton and on Sunday the going was described as good. However, if the rain does arrive in the forecast amounts it will ease the going.
Not only do we have the Punchestown Festival bringing down the curtain on the 2022-23 Irish Jumps season this week. But we also see the end of the British NH season at Sandown on Saturday.
Whilst anticipating plenty of action on the betting front this week, I have seen enough from Monday’s action to tempt me in.
Naas
6:40 – Anglesey Lodge Equine Hospital Woodlands Stakes (Listed Race) – 5f
Smart filly Tenebrism made a winning seasonal return in a Listed race at Curragh 16-days ago. Fifth to Kinross in last year’s Champions Sprint at Ascot. A sprint campaign has been mapped out for the filly and even under a penalty she will be tough to beat back to 5f for the first time since her juvenile debut.
If the dead eight stand their ground Hurricane Ivor could provide some each way value at 8/1 or bigger. The 6-year-old seems to have revived for the switch to the Jessica Harrington stable. He improved for his Cork stable debut to win a Curragh handicap (6f) 8-days ago. Ground versatile he shouldn’t be inconvenienced by the drop back to 5f and given his present form can chase the favourite home.
7:40 – Naas Racecourse Business Club Blackwater Handicap – 1m
Trachonitus had Immutable ½ length back in second when winning a Curragh handicap (1m) last October. Immutable is 3lb better off here but Trachonitus does have race fitness on hi side having finished 4th of 7 at Naas (7f) last month. Looking like the race was needed and would be better suited by a return to a mile.
I think Immutable is open to more improvement of the pair and if he’s ready to roll on his seasonal return won’t be far away. His yard is in good form 3 winners from 9 runners in the past 14-days which is a positive.
Something Nice won a Cork maiden (7f) on testing ground 16 days ago. He’s going the right way and looks on a competitive looking mark for his handicap debut.
Pontefract
3:00 – Riu Hotels And Resorts Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f
Another handicap where you can make case for most of the runners.
Sun King, a maiden winner last spring when trained by Aidan O’Brien, posted a career best on his final start for the O’Brien yard when a 5 length 3rd of 13 in a Royal Ascot handicap (1m 2f). Returned from a 7 month absence with a good 1 ½ length 5th of 13 at Kempton (1m) in January. That was his first start since joining George Boughey and he will appreciate the return to 1m 2f.
Zealot has improved on the all-weather over the winter and is having just his second start on turf. Needs to prove his as good on grass but if he is wont’ be far away.
Ajero won a 1m 1f handicap at the Qatar Goodwood Festival last July. The 8-year-old bounced back from a lesser run at Sandown with a solid 1 ½ length 3rd of 8 at Goodwood (1m 4f) on final start of 2022. This trip will suit him better and if he ready to roll after a 197 break can’t be discounted from stall 5.
Cumulonimbus improved for the step up to 1m 2f on an easy surface when winning at Yarmouth and Haydock in September. He then posted a career best on RPR’s when a ¾ length 3rd of 9 at Nottingham on his final start. Starts the season off 3lb higher than last time but Hollie Doyle 1 from 1 is back in the saddle.
Wootton’sun has a handy draw in stall 1 and did win on seasonal reappearance last season. Not handicapped out of things but may prefer better ground.
Baryshnikov won over C&D last April and followed up at Chester the following month of today’s mark. He ticks the course, distance and going boxes but stall 12 isn’t ideal and you would have preferred to have seen more from him on his return to action at Doncaster 22-days ago.
Zealandia won an amateur rider’s handicap at York (1m 4f) last June on stable debut for Ian Williams. We haven’t seen him since York, and he drops back in trip, but we do know he can win off a layoff.
Kempton
5:55 – Bet @ racingtv.com Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 2m 2f
I’m sure trainer Harry Whittington would like to end his training career with a winner, and he could do so with Rouge Vif. A formerly smart chaser. The 9-year-old has tumbled down the weights after some poor performances since his last success in October 2020. Shaped with some encouragement when an 8 ¾ length 6th off 11 to Malystic at Doncaster in better race in January but he pulled up at Kempton (2m 4 ½ f) last month. He’s probably better over shorter and back to 2m 2f and sounder surface will hopefully see him a better light.
Joe Tizzard saddles a couple of contenders in recent Wincanton winner Triple Trade and Slate House who was successful in this race last year. Triple Trade looks the stable pick with Brendan Powell in the saddle, but Slate House is 2lb below his last winning mark and is a dual C&D winner on good ground.
Real Stone is 1 from 4 since going chasing and improved to finish a 1 ½ length 2nd of 5 at Uttoxeter (2m 4f) last time 23-days ago. The drop back to 2m 2f is a plus for the 8-year-old who won’t mind if the forecast rain arrives.
Raffle Ticket is even less exposed over fences than Real Stone. A lightly raced 9-year-old he got off the mark at the second attempt over fences at Huntingdon (2m 4f) 101 days ago. Not sure if the drop back in trip is what he wants but he’s a solid jumper of a fence and I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him just yet.
6:55 – racingtv.com Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 3m
You can make cases for several of the 11 declared runners. Previous course winner Danny Kirwan might find there are stronger stayers at 3m in the field, but the top weight is down in class and goes well on good ground.
Our Jet won at Leicester (good) two starts back but didn’t really build on that performance when 6 ¾ length 3rd of 5 to Gemirande at Wetherby 79-days ago. He could bounce back to winning ways here if freshened up by a short break.
Le Cameleon won over the distance at Ludlow two starts back and showed he remains in form when 7 ¾ length 3rd of 7 to Annsam back at that venue three weeks ago. He seems likely to give his running once more on good ground but is vulnerable to any better treated rivals off his present mark.
Latitude posted a clear career best effort on RPR’s when beating five rivals at Ludlow last month. That win was his first success over fences, but he’s only had four starts over the larger obstacles and a 6lb rise in the weights might not be enough to stop him from following up today.
Betting Advice:
Naas
6:40 – Hurricane Ivor – 1pt each way – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Pontefract
3:00 – Cumulonimbus – 1pt win – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Kempton
5:55 – Rouge Vif – 1pt win – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Raffle Ticket – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Cheers
John