Hi all,
After The Big Bite on Saturday and Lieutenant Command at Leopardstown yesterday I’m on a roll so although I don’t normally play on a Monday, I’m this week.
There may be some selections on Tuesday so watch your in boxes for any updated posts. However, looking at the rest of the week there won’t be any more until Saturday.
The Cheltenham Festival is just 8 days away and given there’s going to be plenty of bets during the week its worth keeping the powder dry for the rest of this week.
For a Monday the racing isn’t too shabby. I have passed over the Southwell and Leopardstown cards. Which leaves Wetherby and Wolverhampton. Weather permitting I’m going to Wetherby this afternoon. However, the most valuable of the day the – Scu Selects Expert Tips By BetUK Handicap (7:00) is at Wolverhampton and it’s that race that comes under the microscope first.
Wolverhampton
7:00 – Just the six for the days feature race but you can make a case for five of them
Evania looked suit by the step up to 1m 4f when winning on handicap debut at Southwell last month. The mare is up 5lb but that was only her fourth career start and should be capable of better.
Nolton Cross is 7lb higher than when winning over C&D last month and is up a couple of notches in class but should go well.
Base Note needs to bounce back from a poor run at Lingfield but his form figures over C&D are 112 so he can’t be discounted.
Contact progressed into a very useful middle distance handicapper last season. First start since July but he won first time up in 2021 and was a ¾ runner-up on seasonal return last year. He has to be respected on his all-weather debut.
Prydwen looked progressive handicapper when winning at Haydock in September. He didn’t handle heavy ground in the November handicap and was down the field on his return from a 4 month absence at Lingfield 16-days ago. Needs to bounce back but he’s won around here over shorter and Billy Loughnane takes off a handy 5lb.
Verdict: Evania is a solid enough favourite and should be handily placed in race where there doesn’t look to be much pace. Contact is interesting on all-weather debut, but the lack of pace would be a concern. The same comment applies to Prydwen but he’s a much bigger price.
Prydwen – 1pt win – 17/2 @ Coral.
Wetherby
3:15 – Just the six are due to meet the starter for the longest race run at Wetherby but you can make cases for all of them.
Innisfree Lad was back to winning ways at Hereford last time and can race off the same mark here. He’s a thorough stayer and must be respected if the same form as 8-days ago.
Your Own Story posted a career best over fences when a 7 length 2nd of 7 to the improving Stumptown at Sandown last month. He shapes like a marathon trip like this will suit and he’s the one I like of those at the front end of the betting.
Geryville proved his stamina for 3m 3f when a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 15 to Bangers And Cash in the Lincolnshire National two starts back. He’s since gone onto finish runner-up back at Market Rasen (3m) last month. If he stays 3m 7f he should be thereabouts.
Gwencily Berbas might be a 12-year-old bit he showed there’s still fire in his belly when winning the Devon National 10-days ago. A stamina test suits but he might have had a hard race last time.
Don Herbager stays an extended 3m 5f as he showed when winning at Bangor last February. He’s been out of sorts on three starts this season and was never travelling when pulling up at Bangor last month (found to have had irregular heartbeat). Softer ground would be preferable though.
Silver In Disguise won an extended 3m 6 ½ f handicap chase at Chepstow (good) last March. He posted a seasonal best when runner-up back at that venue (3m 2f) last month. Shaping that day like a return to a marathon trip like this was needed.
Verdict: Your Own Story could be open to plenty of improvement for a step up to today’s marathon trip. However, at the prices my preference is for Welsh challnger Silver In Disguise.
Silver In Disguise – 1pt win – 17/2 @ Coral.
Cheers
John