Hi all,
I’m off to the Dubai Winter Carnival at Meydan for today’s selections. I know some of you have zero interest in Meydan. So there will be a bit of groan from some but the moderate racing in Britain & Ireland just doesn’t excite me.
There are four races on the turf at Meydan this afternoon. The other three are on the dirt and as old subscribers will be aware I don’t look at the race run on that surface.
I’m on a dreadful run at present but happy its now rather than at Cheltenham. Still, I could do with a winner and hopefully Meydan can provide it. Today’s selections can be found at the end of the main piece.
Meydan
2:35 – Jebel Ali Free Zone – 6f
High draws seem favoured on the sprint course. Silent Speech (13), trained by Charlie Appleby, heads the betting. Well drawn the 4-year-old was in good form at last year’s carnival. However, we haven’t seem him since he finished last of 8 at Ascot in September. He’s likely better than that performance but at 100/30 its not difficult to look elsewhere from a value perspective.
City Walk (10) is another with a good draw. He bounced back to form when a 2 length 5th of 15 to Coachella in a Listed race over C&D 3 weeks ago. Back in handicap company here and is competitively weighted on his best all-weather from.
Prisoner’s Dilemma (15) looks over-priced to me on his best Irish form. Particularly as he has a high draw. Granted he’s run poorly on both starts so far in Meydan in Listed company, soft ground was a possible excuse last time and he’s now 3lb lower than winning a handicap at the Curragh last August.
3:45 – Lord Glitters Handicap (Handicap) – 1m
Ouzo has placed on both starts here. And given his high draw did well to finish as close as he did when ¾ length 2nd of 15 two weeks ago. He should go well again but once again he’s not fared well in terms of the draw.
New Kingdom is better drawn in stall 5 and the 4-year-old bounced back to from when a 1 ¾ length 3rd of 16 here over 7f last month. Stablemate Tranquil Night (11) ran like the run was needed when 10th of 15 over C&D 14-days ago. He remain capable of better and could go close with that run under his belt.
Fastnet Crown (10) was ½ length and one place behind New Kingdom last time. He finished best off all that day and would have appreciated a better gallop to chase. A winner over a mile In Ireland so the return to that trip looks another plus.
Turkish challenger Aegean Finale (3) was an excellent ¾-length 2nd of 16 over C&D last month. Has a 2lb rise in the weights to contend with. But he does have a handy low draw and should go well again if in the same form as last time.
Better was expected from Echo Point (4/1) but he ran a bit below market expectations when a 4 ¼ length 9th of 16 to Electrical Storm over C&D last time. Now with Simon & Ed Crisford. He handily weighted on his best form with Charlie Appleby and stall 1 makes of him interest.
4:20 – Nad Al Sheba Trophy – 1m 6f
This Group 2 contest is the most valuable race on the card. With £100,000 on offer to the winner. Siskany heads the early bird betting. A Listed winner over C&D at last year’s Carnival and a Listed winner at Newmarket (1m 4f) in September. Stablemate Kemari has a bit to find on his running with Siskany here last year but isn’t out of this on his best form.
Ardakan might just have needed his first start since September when a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 10 in Listed race over C&D last month. The 4-year-old must be respected on the pick of his form in Europe last year. And given he’s only had nine career starts maybe capable of better yet.
4:55 – Dubai Millennium Stakes – 1m 2f
The Godolphin pair of Nations Pride & Ottoman Fleet dominate the betting for Group 3 contest. It’s a race Charlie Appleby has won for the last five years and he’s got a great chance of training a sixth successive winner.
Nations Pride won the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby last August and finished 5th of 13 in the Breeders Cup Turf last time. The 4-year-old has to give weight away to all his 11 rivals and might just need the run but is the class horse of the race.
Ottoman Fleet won twice in Listed company over 1m 2f at Newmarket last year. Finished third on both starts in Group 2’s contests here (1m 1f). Today’s extra furlong is a positive for the 4-year-old and given he gets 7lb and has race fitness on his side could emerge on top.
Of the rest Zagrey has 4 ¼ lengths to find with Ottoman Fleet after finishing one place behind that one here 14-days ago. The French challenger was returning from a 10 week layoff last time and is entitled to get closer here.
Betting Advice:
Meydan
2:25 – Prisoner’s Dilemma – 0.5pts each way – 50/1 @ Bet365 (paying 5 places) and City Walk – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Bet365.
3:45 – Fastnet Crown – 1pt win – 11/2 @ Bet365 and Aegean Finale – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Bet365.
4:20 – Ardakan – 1pt win – 9/2 @ William Hill.
4:55 – Zagrey – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Bet365.
Cheers
John