Hi all,
Ignoring the Breeders’ Cup, it was a good weekend and start to the month for the service. I wouldn’t normally be having selections on a Monday during the winter months but today is an exception.
At 4am tomorrow morning it’s the race that stops the nation the Melbourne Cup. Before the pandemic It’s a race I used to stay up and loved to have a crack at it. For the last few years, I haven’t bothered to watch it live but I still like to have a play in the race.
Melbourne Cup – Flemington
4:00 – Compared to 12 months when the race was run on soft its likely to be quick ground at Flemington. Willie Mullins has been bidding for 20 years to win the Melbourne Cup and 2023 could be the year he does it. He has two big contenders in favourite Vauban and Ebor winner Absurde.
Vauban has a huge chance, but his odds reflect that. He’s got a handy low draw in stall 3 and Ryan Moore is in the saddle. He handled quickish ground when winning at Royal Ascot, but it could be even quicker here.
Absurde looks held by his stablemate when a 7 ½ length runner-up to Vauban at Royal Ascot. But he did best of those who in a modestly run race. He’s since improved to win the Ebor Handicap and has good claims.
Last year’s winner Gold Trip must be respected but it could be much quicker ground than 12 months ago and I’m happy to let him win at 5/1.
Without A Flight was well fancied for last year’s race but rain scuppered his chance and he only finished 13th of 22. Comes into Tuesday’s race off the back of a career best effort when winning the Caulfield Cup 17 days ago. Provided the ground is no worse than good he’s got to be considered.
Soulcombe won last year’s Melrose Handicap when trained by William Haggas. He’s got a habit of being slowly away as he was when a 5 ½ length 7th of 18 in the Caulfield Cup last time. The 4-year-old has definite claims from stall 4 but needs to break on terms.
Japanese challenger Breakup shouldn’t be judged to harshly on his 5 ¾ length 8th of 18 to Without A Flight in the Caulfield Cup. It was his first run for 118 days and was likely undercooked that day. He will be spot on fitness wise for this. He remains one I’m really interested but stall 18 isn’t great.
Magical Lagoon won last year’s Irish Oaks when trained by Jessica Harrington and struggled on her first four starts in Australia this year. But the filly ran with a bit more encouragement when a 1 length 6th of 13 in the Geelong Cup 13 days ago. An outsider with a chance if building on last time.
Future History won a Group 3 handicap (1m 4 ½ f) here last month and ran even better when a ¾ length 3rd of 14 to one of today’s rivals Cleveland 11 days ago. If he stays 2m then he’s got claims with Hollie Doyle taking the ride on the light weight.
Daqiansweet Junior is a real ‘roughie’ at 100/1. The 6-year-old hasn’t won for 18 months but he ran a cracker in last year’s race when sixth and has been trained for this once more. His win odds reflect his chance but 20/1 for the place is worth looking at.
Melbourne Cup Verdict:
Vauban is the one to beat and the most likely winner. Stablemate Absurde shouldn’t be far away and can g Japanese challenger Breakup is one I will be backing despite his wide draw.Hollie Doyle should get a good spin on Future History but if you want a real outsider who could get into the places you could probably do worse than opt for Daqiansweet Junior. I could justify having three picks but I rely on the two.
Breakup – 1pt win – 16/1 @ Bet365 (BOG) or 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Absurde – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
I’m not sure there will be many selections between now and Friday so watch your inboxes for updates.
Cheers
John