Hi all,
Grand National Day started off on a winning note as the well backed Hometown Boy overcame a last hurdle mistake to win the 3m handicap hurdle that opened the Aintree card. A Rule 4 of 15p chipped away at the profit but at least we broke even on the day and completed a profitable Grand National Meeting.
The best of today’s action is across the Irish Sea and It’s back to the flat after an exciting few days of jumps racing. The feature races of an eight-race card at Leopardstown are the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes (3:45) and the Group 3 1,000 Guineas Trial & Listed 2,000 Guineas Trial.
It’s set to be an informative day’s racing with plenty of interesting three-year-old’s on show.
Leopardstown
2:10 – Ballylinch Stud “Red Rocks” 2,000 Guineas Trial Stakes (Listed Race) – 7f
A Case Of You heads the market. The colt won a Group 3 at the Curragh last October over an extended 6f for previous trainer John McConnell. Returned from a five-month layoff to win at Dundalk 23-days ago on his first start Adrian McGuinness. The return to 7f should suit the son of Hot Streak who can win this if as effective on quicker ground.
A consistent juvenile Monaasib put in a career best when collared late on by Derby ante post favourite High Definition the Group 2 Beresford Stakes. Trainer has expressed concerns about the quick ground for the horse.
Poetic Flare won on the opening day of the 2019 Irish Flat season and wasn’t seen on the track again until thrown in the deep end Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes. He ran green in the Dewhurst but wasn’t disgraced in finishing 10th. Showed the benefit of that run when winning a Group 3 over C&D 7-days later. He could be a 2,000 Guineas contender if he wins and the yard won this last year.
Aidan O’Brien who has won five of the last ten renewals of the race saddles Merchant Quay, Matchless & Horoscope. All three are open to improvement as 3-year-old’s and recent Currgah winner Horoscope is the choice of Ryan Moore. The other two are making their seasonal reappearances.
2:40 – Ballylinch Stud “Priory Belle” 1,000 Guineas Trial Stakes (Group 3) -7f
Another race that Aidan O’Brien has won five times in the last ten years. He saddles Joan Of Arc, Empress Josephine & More Beautiful. The latter makes her seasonal reappearance and looks the stable third choice. Empress Josephine, a full sister to Minding, won Naas maiden on her racecourse debut 14-days ago. Joan Of Arc, a full sister to Gleneagles, battled on well to win a 7f Curragh maiden (soft to heavy) three weeks ago. On pedigree she should be suited by today’s better ground. Both fillies are open to improvement and could make up into high class fillies this year.
Interesting then that Ryan Moore opts for another Coolmore filly in Shale trained by Donnacha O’Brien. Shale was a high-class juvenile winning the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes before disappointing on soft ground in the Fillies Mile at Newmarket. She must give her 14 rivals 3lb here but on the figures she’s the one they all have to beat.
My Generation trained by Joseph O’Brien left her racecourse debut behind when quickening clear inside the final furlong to win a Listed contest at Dundalk last month. Open to further improvement and given her pedigree she should be well suited by a sound surface on the grass.
No going concerns for Loch Lein who improved on her first two starts last season when winning a 6f Curragh maiden last September. Prior to that she finished runner-up Dewhurst winner St Marks Basilica. Another open to improvement on her first start at 7f.
Mehnah, a daughter of Frankel, overcame a slow start to win on her racecourse debut at Dundalk in September. Should do better as 3-year-old but may need a mile to be seen at her best as 3-year-old, her half-brother Awtaad won an Irish 2,000 Guineas. Doesn’t have the best of draws in stall 11.
Verdict: Shale is the one to beat on her juvenile form but she faces several potentially improving fillies none more so than My Generation who has race fitness on her side.
1pt win – My Generation – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:45 – P.W. McGrath Memorial Ballysax Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 2f
Eight are set to go to post for a race that has been won by the likes of Fascinating Rock & Harzand in the past decade.
Aidan O’Brien has saddled the last three winners of the race and he runs two in Bolshoi Ballet & Lough Derg. Bolshoi Ballet is the choice of Ryan Moore and should appreciate today’s quicker ground. A winner here over 7f last season before getting stuck in the mud in a Group 1 at Saint-Cloud on final start as a juvenile. Seasonal reappearance here and do better as 3-year-old. Stablemate Lough Derg won his sole juvenile start at Dundalk in November and is open to further progress as 3-year-old.
Dermot Weld won this with Fascinating Rock & Harzand and has a big contender with Wuqood. The son of Dubawi won a Gowran maiden on his racecourse debut last season and bounced back from a disappointing Curragh run when a head 2nd of 9 here on a Group 3 last time. On pedigree he should make up into a better 3-year-old.
Taipan won a back end juvenile mile maiden at Naas on his racecourse debut. The son of Frankel is highly regarded by trainer Jessica Harrington and she hopes the colt can be her Derby horse.
Isle Of Sark also won his sole juvenile start. The son of Kitten’s Joy was impressive in winning at Dundalk last November and is another open to more progress as a 3-year-old.
Verdict: Bolshoi Ballet had good juvenile form and looks capable of more progress at three. Stablemate Lough Derg made a winning racecourse debut at Dundalk and gives Aidan O’Brien a strong hand in the race. Connections think Taipan could be a Derby horse. Wuqood has the pedigree to make into a smart middle-distance colt at three and at the prices rates the pick
1pt win – Wuqood – 11/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
I have a couple more selections in the handicaps
3:15 – Real Appeal a useful juvenile when trained in France. The 4-year-old has yet to win since switching to race in Ireland but ended last season with three respectable efforts in 7f handicaps, including, finishing 3rd of 18 in a Premier Handicap over C&D and occupying the same spot at Cork last time. Has been dropped 2lb since and capable of going close on his seasonal return from a handy enough draw in stall 7.
1pt win – Real Appeal – 13/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
4:20 – An interesting 3-year-old only handicap over 1m 2f. I want to take on recent last time out Dundalk winner and favourite Sir Lamorak. The two I like are:
Bear Story improved on his three starts last year and put his experience to good use when winning a Dundalk maiden in December. Stamina on the dam side suggests he will stay 1m 2f and he looks sure to win races this season.
Chicago Bear an expensively purchased and well-bred colt, improved markedly on his racecourse debut when winning 7f maiden at Dundalk in November. The second and third have gone to win since so the form looks solid enough. He’s got a solid middle-distance pedigree, his dam won over 1m 4f, and looks the sort to make good progress in his second season.
1pt win – Chicago Bear – 11/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
Cheers
John