Hi all,
The Guinness Kerry National (4.25) at Listowel is the highlight of Wednesday’s action. However. there’s also a couple of Listed races this side of the Irish Sea worth watching. At Yarmouth we have the EBF Stallions John Musker Fillies’ Stakes (3.45) and at Sandown the Chasemore Farm Fortune Stakes (3.40) is the feature race of a six race card at the Esher track.
In today’s preview I have had a look at the big races at Listowel, Sandown and Yarmouth and today’s betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Listowel
4:25 – Guinness Kerry National – 3m
The Kerry National has €118,000 on offer to the winner. The Listowel racecourse management will be delighted they have attracted such a strong field for this time of the season.
Salvador Ziggy unbeaten on this three starts over fences heads the ante post betting. He’s one of seven runners from the Gordon Elliot yard and all four of them have good claims.
Here’s my idea of the most likely winners of the race.
Salvador Ziggy only beat a single rival when completing a chase hat trick at Killarney 25 days ago. However, he already he’s stamped himself a better chaser than a hurdler. Needs to find more to defy a mark of 150 on handicap chase debut but could be capable of doing so. Lacks the experience of most of his rivals but if his jumping stands up, will take the beating,
Ash Tree Meadow produced a career best when winning the Galway Plate 49 days ago. A sound surface suits the 7-year-old. Although he’s 10lb higher than at Galway, his good jumping means he must be respected once more.
Gevrey a length runner-up in the Irish Grand National two starts back had a pipe opener over hurdles at Kibeggan 39 days ago he should be competitive in these sort of handicap chases this winter and can’t be ruled out.
The Goffer returned from a 3 month absence to finish an 18 ¾ length 8th of 22 in the Galway Plate last time. He wasn’t the best way that day and might have needed the run. The first time tongue tie is applied. I think there’s a nice handicap chase in the 6-year-old this season.
Authorised Art was a 2 ½ length runner-up to Ash Tree Meadow in the Galway Plate. He’s 5lb better off with the winner today and is the choice of Paul Townend. Should be in the mix once more but I wonder if there will be stronger stayers in the line-up.
Ciel De Neige finished a 14 ½ length sixth in the Galway Plate. He never got competitive last time but was doing his best work at the finish. Decent chance that he will stay 3m and he’s not handicapped out of this by any means.
Stealthy Tom must be respected given his current vein of form. The 8-year-old has won three of his last four starts and posted a clear best on RPR’s when running out a comfortable winner of a Listed handicap chase (2m 5f) at Killarney last month. Up 11lb for his latest success but going the right way.
Ain’t That a Shame hails from a yard that won this with Poker Party in 2019. The 9-year-old gained his first success over fences in a beginners chase at Gowran Park (2m 4f) two starts back. Failed to stay in the Grand National at Aintree but this is more his trip. First start for 158 days but he went close in the Munster National at Limerick on his seasonal return last October. The softer the ground the better his chance.
Desertmore House has won two of his three starts since going chasing this season. The latest of those wins coming on handicap chase debut at Kilbeggan 26 days ago. He’s now 8lb higher but is clearly going the right way over fences. He’s second reserve but if he was to get into the race needs respect.
Kerry National Verdict: A cracking renewal of this valuable handicap chase. Salvador Ziggy looks a worthy enough favourite. I also his stablemate The Goffer. Stealthy Tom is in good form and should go well provided the ground doesn’t get too soft. Meanwhile Ain’t That a Shame won’t be inconvenienced should more rain arrive and goes well off a layoff. He probably won’t get into the race but if he does Desertmore House would have to be considered.
3:15 – Mister Beeton won a handicap hurdle at Punchestown in June and improved again when a 2 ½ length 2nd of 9 at Ballinrobe last month. He’s been nudged up 2lb for his latest effort but is going the right way and stays 3m well.
Hand Over Fist bids for the hat trick after handicap hurdle wins at Bellewstown and latterly Roscommon 43 days ago. He seemed to progress further for the step up to an extended 2m 7f last time and is capable of more progress.
Call The Tune looked as good as ever back over hurdles when a ½-length 2nd of 16 at the Galway Festival last month. The first time cheekpieces he wore last time are retained and the prospect of softer ground give him strong claims.
Foxfire Glow is another coming into the race seeking the hat trick. His two wins have come on good ground, but he should be fine on a softer surface. Not certain to stay 3m but he’s won over 2m 6f and shaped that day like he would stay further. Now 8lb higher than when winning at Tramore and well worth considering.
Sandown
3:40 – Chasemore Farm Fortune Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m
An interesting renewal of this Listed contest.
We haven’t seen Listed winner Eydon since he finished a 4 ¼ length 4th of 15 to Coroebus in last season’s 2,000 Guineas. First run since and the colt is also having his first start since switching to Andrew Balding.
Chindit bounced backed to winning ways in a Group 3 at Haydock 11 days ago. Has a 5lb penalty to carry for that success and is unlikely to get the quickish ground he likely needs.
Knight improved to finish ½ length 2nd of 7 in the Group 2 Celebration Mile at Goodwood last time. The first time cheekpieces go on and given he’s only had five starts could be capable of better on an easy surface.
Raadobarg is a consistent enough performer in this grade and goes well on soft ground. However, he’s on a losing run that goes back to April 2022 and is likely needs a couple of his rivals to run below par to win.
Sir Busker hasn’t been since disappointing in a Group 1 in Meydan in March. A reproduction of his Group 2 win at York (1m 2 ½ f) last August would see the 7-year-old close in this company. However, he might just need the run after a 179 day absence.
Verdict: I’m not sure Chindit will appreciate today’s easier ground and has a 5lb penalty to give away. If Eydon is ready to roll after a 508 day absence he would be in the mix. Knight drops back in class after an excellent run in a Group 2 at Goodwood last time and getting 9lb for Chindit is the one to beat.
Yarmouth
3:45 – EBF Stallions John Musker Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m 2f
A good sized field with fourteen fillies & mares set to line-up for this Listed contest. It may pay to focus on the three fillies open to the most improvement.
Al Asifah looked a potential Group 1 filly when comfortably winning a Listed race (1m 2f) at Goodwood in May. She lost her unbeaten record when a disappointing 5/6 favourite in the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot. That run came only 11 days after Goodwood so the race may have to come quick for her and she may not have stayed 1m 4f. Has been given a 90 day break to freshen up and remains capable of much better.
Sapphire Seas completed a hat trick when winning at Haydock (good to firm) on handicap debut 13 days ago. Looks well worth her place in pattern company. The daughter of Frankel needs respecting if handling the likely easier ground.
Infinite Cosmos built on the promise of last season’s racecourse debut when comfortably winning a Newmarket maiden in May. The daughter of Sea The Stars improved again when a 4 ½ lengths 3rd of 8 to Soul Sister in the Group 3 Musidora Stakes at York. First run for 126 days but won her seasonal reappearance so likely will be fit enough on return. Might need 1m 4f, dam won over 1m 4f but should appreciate a slower surface.
Verdict: Al Asifah could still turn out to be Group 1 filly and is the most likely winner, but she’s priced up accordingly by the bookies. Sapphire Seas is improving quickly and looks Listed class but the ground will be different to what she won last time. This trip might prove to be on the short side for Infinite Cosmos but an easy surface will bring out her stamina and she looks a bit of value against the favourite.
Betting Advice:
Listowel
3:15 – Hand Over Fist – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Coral & Paddy Power
4:25 – Ain’t That a Shame – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Coral and The Goffer – 1pt win – 16/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
Yarmouth
3:45 – Infinite Cosmos – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Paddy Power.
Cheers
John