Hi all,
Here’s my preview of the final day of Aintree’s Grand National Festival and as ever today’s selections/ betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Aintree Grand National Festival – Day 3
1:45 – Eft Systems Maghull Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 2m
This is the least appealing betting race of the day for me. For the third day running I’m happy to leave this race alone. Six are set to go to post but one of those Banbridge won here on Thursday. Arkle runner-up Jonbon isn’t bullet proof by any means but if he’s right, he wins.
Verdict: Jonbon is a token selection but it’s a no bet race for me.
2:25 – Village Hotels Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) – 3m ½ f
I want to take on Pertemps Final winner Good Time Jonny. There are several on my shortlist. I always want to keep Gordon Elliott’s hurdlers onside so I can give chance to both his runners Au Fleuron & Vina Ardanza. Both have had light campaigns. The first named finished an 11 length 8th of 21 in the Martin Pipe last time and gets the first time blinkers. Vina Ardanza was beaten a short head in a handicap hurdle at Naas back in November. He’s not been at his best on either start since but a reproduction pf his best form would give him a chance.
West Balboa won an attritional Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at Kempton (heavy) in January. She’s up 5lb but is open to further improvement but does she need soft ground. If she doesn’t, she weighted to be competitive.
Party Business won this last year from 5lb lower. Just two starts this season and looks to have been aimed at this race once more. If he gets a strongly run race like he did 12 months ago then he’s got a big chance once more.
An Tailliur was an excellent 4 ½ length 6th of 23 to Good Time Jonny in the Pertemps Final. It was soft at Cheltenham, and I think he’s a better horse on a sounder surface and should go well after a light campaign.
Trainer Stuart Edmunds is 2 winners from 6 runners +14, 4 placed 67% (+25.10) at tis meeting in the past 5-years. He saddles Mexico who improved for the step to 2m 7 ½ f when winning a Uttoxeter novice hurdle 14-days ago. It was soft at Uttoxeter but he’s also won on a sounder surface so seems ground versatile. Now he seems to have found his trip and he’s got a better chance than his odds suggest.
Gatsby Grey was a 4 length 2nd of 5 to Mighty Potter in a Grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival last April. A tame effort when a well beaten 3rd of 5 at Leopardstown last month but prior to that the 7-year-old had finished an 8 ½ length 5th of 17 to Perceval Legallois at Leopardstown on his first start at 3m. A reproduction of that that run would make him of interest.
Verdict: This is a tough puzzle for sure. Last year’s winner Party Business is a contender once more. West Balboa is lightly raced and capable of more improvement. An Tailliur has a good 3m handicap in him on good/good to soft ground. Mexico is a really staying type and there could be more to come from him over the distance. Irish challenger Gatsby Grey is unexposed over the distance and hails from a yard among the winners.
3:00 – Turners Mersey Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 4f
Hermes Allen ran poorly in the Ballymore at the Cheltenham Festival. That performance looked too bad to be true and he’s better judged on easy Challow Hurdle success. If he bounces back, he will be tough to beat. You Wear It Well won the Dawn Run Mares Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham. The form of that race has taken a bit of a hit but there was plenty to like about her success. Dark Raven was a 9 ½ lengths 6th of 14 in the Supreme and I think the step up to 2m 4f will suit him. Irish Point has solid novice form in Ireland. He bypassed Cheltenham and instead won a Grade 3 at Naas last month. Add in several progressive novices stepping up in class such as Springwell Bay, Crambo, Blow Your Wad & Kateira and you have the makings of a competitive renewal.
Verdict: I’m expecting better from Hermes Allen. You Wear It Well jumped well to win the Mares Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham. If a hard race there hasn’t left its mark, she’s got a big chance but may need soft ground. I think the step to 2m 4f will suit Dark Raven and he’s a major player after his run in the Supreme. Plenty of improving types stepping up in class including Springwell Bay & Kateira with the latter of most interest.
3:35 – Jrl Group Liverpool Hurdle – 3m ½
No Teahupoo but this is the Stayer’s Hurdle all over again. Stayers Hurdle winner Sire Du Berlais won this 12 months ago and he must have a good chance of doing it again in a well-run race. Maybe it’s an age thing but he looks a bit overpriced to me. Dashel Drasher wouldn’t be winning out of turn. The likeable veteran looked like he was coming to win at the last at Cheltenham, but his stamina ran out up the hill. This flatter track suits, and he gets the first time cheekpieces. Provided he didn’t have to hard a race at Cheltenham he’s a big player. Flooring Porter did too much out in front at Cheltenham and a more controlled front running ride would see him tough to pass. Marie’s Rock bypassed the Stayers Hurdle and went for the Mares Hurdle instead. She never settled in slowly run race that day and a better run race would suit her. Champ missed Cheltenham which wasn’t a bad move given his record when fresh. When racing between 90 & 300 days since his last start he’s 5 wins from 5 runs +10.57.
Verdict: Another cracker of a Grade 1.The bookies seem to be underrating Stayers Hurdle winner Sire Du Berlais once more.There would be no more deserving winner than Dashel Drasher. If Flooring Porter doesn’t do too much too early, he’s in the mix. Champ’s record fresh means he can never be underestimated. Stablemate Marie’s Rock will need to settle better than she did last time if she’s to stay 3m.
4:15 – William Hill Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – 3m 1f
Midnight River ran below expectations when 15¾ lengths 11th of 23 in the Plate Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Prior to that had won a decent handicap chase at Cheltenham. The step up to 3m can elicit more improvement in the 8-year-old and he’s interesting in the first time tongue tie.
Shakem Up’Arry was third in the Plate Handicap Chase but the step up to 3m 1f might suit the 9-year-old as it should Midnight River. Stablemate Bowtogreatness is bred for 3m but he’s not really built on the promise of his short head 2nd of 9 at Exeter on his seasonal return.
Beauport didn’t look like he stayed 3m 2f when 9th of 23 in Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Today’s slightly shorter trip should suit the novice and he could easily bounce back to form.
Nassalam was a 3 ½ length third to Midnight River on New Year’s Day two starts back. He gets a 5lb pull in the weights with that one and is handicapped to be competitive. His jumping let him down in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival last time.
Kinondo Kwetu won his first five starts over fences last summer & autumn including over C&D in October. Ran poorly when a well beaten last of 3 in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase in February. However, he’s had wind surgery since and gets the first time tongue tie which might explain his Ascot run. Needs a sound surface and capable of a good run if he gets it.
Top-weight Eldorado Allen is a smart chaser on his day. He’s been coming up short in Grade 1 & 2 company this season. However, his 3 ½ length 2nd of 5 to Bravemansgame in the Charlie Hall Chase on his seasonal reappearance was a good effort. Back in calmer waters today and can’t be ruled out.
Gold Cup Bailly won is first three starts over fences and was a good 1 ¼ length 2nd of 4 to Thomas Darby at Ayr. Well below his best in a Grade 3 (2m 4f) at Naas last month. He will be better suited by the return to handicap company and back at 3m.
Verdict: There might only be 15 runners for this handicap. I found this one a difficult one to weigh up and I don’t think it’s the strongest of renewals either. Midnight River prefers ease in the ground but the step up to 3m is a positive. I’m not sure Shakem Up’Arry will stay. However, I do think stablemate Bowtogreatness will, but he needs to bounce back to form. Nassalam is on a fair mark, but he needs to cut out the mistakes. Eldorado Allen is reasonably handicapped if at his very best and will find this easier, but this trip probably does stretch his stamina. If the wind surgery has had the desired effect, I can see Kinondo Kwetu returning to his previously progressive ways, but he probably needs the ground like it was on Thursday.
5:15 – Randox Grand National Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – 4m 2 ½ f
I’m not going through the 50 runners here. Why? Because my short list actually contains six runners and it must be my shortest list of contenders ever for the race.
Corach Rambler is 10lb well in after his win in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. He’s a worthy favourite given how well in at the weights he is. I have had the 9-year-old as a Grand National contender since the start of the winter jumps campaign although I didn’t back him. He’s progressive and the only chink in his armour is his come-from-behind style of racing may not be suited to the race.
Delta Work was third to Nobel Yeats in last year’s race and he’s much better off at the weights with last year’s winner this time around. He defended his Cross Country Crown in game fashion at the Cheltenham Festival last time and looks set for another big run in Saturday’s race.
Aint That A Shame has developed into smart chaser winning one of his seven starts over the larger obstacles. The 7-year-old got off the mark when winning a Gowran Park novice chase last month. The runner-up there won a handicap chase at Fairyhouse on Easter Monday, so the form looks decent. Prior to that he had finished a good 1 length 4th of 28 in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas.
Capodanno is the most fascinating of the 40 runners and Willie Mullins thinks he could be a future Gold Cup contender. The 7-year-old has won two of his six starts over fences. The latest of them coming in the Grade 1 Novice Chase (3m) at last season’s Punchestown Festival. He made a decent return to action when a 9 length 3rd of 4 to stablemate Janidil in a Grade 3 Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park in February. That performance came over an inadequate 2m 4f. He’ll need to be a Gold Cup horse to win off a mark of 160 but like the trainer I think he could be.
Hill Sixteen isthe biggest priced of the six on my shortlist. The 10-year-old is an old fashioned staying type. He already run well over the National fences finishing a nose 2nd of 21 to Snow Leopardess in the 2021 Becher Chase and was an encouraging 7th of 22 in this season’s race. Last of ten at Kelso on first start since wind surgery last month isn’t ideal. However, in his defence he lost shoe that day and that run was always going to be a prep for Saturday. He will be spot on fitness wise and will be plugging on when most of his rivals have given up.
Roi Mage was bought by connections from France last season for this. He failed to get a run 12 months ago but has been trained for this race all season. A solid 1 ¼ length 2nd of 7 to Longhouse Poet at Down Royal last month. He normally accurate jumping means he must be respected, and he looks on fair mark.
Verdict: Corach Rambler and Delta Work look short enough early in the week although the first named would be interesting if going out to 12s. Capodanno might not take to the ‘hurly burly’ of a big field or the National fences but he’s the most intriguing of my six. Aint That A Shame is also light on experience, that didn’t stop Noble Yeats last year. He’s capable of better over fences and I think he’s on a good mark. He was 16/1 on Thursday but there was a flood of money for him on Friday and he’s now the 8/1 favourite which is a bit frustrating. Both Hill Sixteen and Roi Mage are thorough stayers who have been trained for the race. The former would appreciate soft ground, if only to slow the others down. I was only going to go for three in this year’s race but I’m loath to leave either of them out of my final picks.
6:20 – Weatherbys Nhstallions.Co.UK Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Grade 2) – 2m 1f
A maximum field of 20 for the race that concludes this year’s Aintree Festival. By the time this race comes around I wonder how many of the crowd will still be in attendance to welcome in the winner. I suspect it won’t be many. If you need a winner to save your week, I can’t think of a worse race to try to hit your way out of trouble. It’s a race brim full of future winners over hurdles/fences down the line but who will be tuned up to win today. Here are a few that interested me.
Captain Cody a winner of a Limerick bumper improved again when a 6 length 6th of 21 in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham. That’s the best form on offer and he’s open to further progress but he faces plenty of potential improvers including his stablemate Blizzard Of Oz who will be ridden by Patrick Mullins. Aslukgoes has won all three of his bumper starts and a speed favouring 2m on a sound surface suits the 5-year-old. Paul Nicholls has won two of the last three renewals of the race so you have to respect Centara who looked useful when winning at Taunton on his racecourse debut.
We haven’t seen Go To War since winning on racecourse debut at Uttoxeter in October. He looked useful that day and is another who might prefer a sounder surface. Beat The Bat is bred to win races over hurdles and won a Chepstow bumper on his second start. Samui has a decent flat pedigree andwon at Naas on his racecourse debut. He missed Cheltenham and this track should suit him better.
Verdict: Captain Cody has the form in the book but does face plenty of potential improvers including the likes Aslukgoes and Go To War who’s yard won the Mares Bumper here on Thursday.
Betting Advice:
Aintree
2:25 – An Tailliur – 1pt win – 8/1 @Paddy Power & Bet365 Mexico – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:15 – Midnight River – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Paddy Power & Bet365 and Kinondo Kwetu – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:15 – Capodanno – 1pt win – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes, Roi Mage – 1pt win – 40/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Corach Rambler – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
6:20 – Captain Cody – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John