Hi all,
Sandown’s Wednesday evening card had to be abandoned half way through the meeting due to biblical levels of rain. However, just down the road Goodwood missed most of the rain. That combined with a drying breeze meant the Goodwood going description was changed to good to soft from soft on Thursday morning. Mind you there is a storm coming in and there could be plenty of showers but given its showers who knows how much rain will fall in the Goodwood area.
The going on the jumps track at Galway remains on the good side and they are watering to maintain that description. Not much rain is being forecast for the rest of the Galway Festival so the going shouldn’t really change too much between now and Sunday. Which is what we want to hear.
Back to the action on the track. It’s another full day of high-class racing at both Goodwood at Galway.
There’s no Group 1 race at Goodwood on Friday but there are two Group 2’s. The highlight being the King George Qatar Stakes (3:35). The drying ground is good news for the connections Battaash who will be bid for a fifth successive win in this 5f sprint. He faces 12 rivals including Dragon Symbol who drops back to 5f after finishing runner-up in the July Cup last time. Art Power who was 4th in the same race and Glass Slippers who was runner-up in last year’s race and is having her first run since winning the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint last autumn.
At Galway there are three big field National Hunt handicaps for punters to get stuck into and all three have over €44,000 on offer to the winner.
A disappointing day on Thursday with Sir Lucan going the closest at Goodwood. A bad day can knock your confidence but I fancy plenty today.
Qatar Goodwood Festival – Day 4
1:50 – Unibet 3 Boosts A Day Goodwood Handicap (Class 2) – 2m 4 ½ f
Just Hubert won this race 12 months ago. He can race off 1lb lower this time around and Ray Dawson takes off a useful 3lb so must be respected if reproducing last season’s performance. Hasn’t really built on the promise of his seasonal reappearance third at Haydock though and was very disappointing on quick ground at Newmarket last time.
Smart Champion was 1 length behind Just Hubert in third 12 months ago and can race off 6lb lower here. Saffie Osborne take off a handy 5lb. The 6-year-old doesn’r win very often but stays all day and is the best handicapped horse in the race. Usually held up in his races he will need a decent pace to chase if he’s to win.
Withold put in his best performance of this season when a 4 ¾ length 3rd of 12 at Newmarket 13-days ago. The 8-year-old is nicely treated on his best form from two season’s back and Osin Murphy stays in the saddle. This sort of trip could suit him these days. Trainer Roger Charlton is 7 winners from 20 runners 35% in the past 14-days.
Rajinsky stay 2m well and found 1m 6f to short at Newmarket last time. He normally gives his running and deserves to land nice pot like this. Looks worth a try over this marathon trip.
Platform Nineteen made it 3 from 3 at Beverley 17-days ago. He remains unexposed as a stayer and could well improve further for a marathon trip. He did have a hard race on soft ground last time but if this doesn’t come to quick has to be one of the leading contenders.
Green Book is another unexposed stayer. He showed he has bottomless stamina when landing the 2m 2f Chester Plate in May. Put in a career best effort when an 8 ¼ length 5th of 15 in the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot last time.
Elysian Flame a winner at Newbury in April. He was hampered at the start and thus badly placed in the Chester Plate on his next start. Showed that an extreme stamina test suited when a staying on 1 ½ length 3rd of 19 in the Ascot Stakes (Handicap) at Royal Ascot. Nudged up another 2lb but granted a stamina test can go close.
Verdict: Plenty in with a chance. Withhold has plenty of back class and well treated if at his best. Just Hubert & Smart Champion were first & third last year. The latter is the best handicapped horse in the race but needs a good gallop t. chase given his likely hold up tactics. Rajinsky wouldn’t be winning out of turn. Green Book looks a real stayer as does Elysian Flame and both have serious claims.
1pt each way – Green Book – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (Both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
1pt win – Elysian Flame – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
2:25 – Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3) – 1m
Baaeed’s career record is now 3-3 after an easy win in a Newmarket Listed race 22-days ago. He looked a potential Group 1 horse that day and will be tough to beat he.
Rhythm Master’s best juvenile form came on soft ground and he showed last time that he’s well suited to easy ground when a 2 ¼ length 4th of 18 in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. Worth a try over a mile but his chance likely depends on more rain arriving than is forecast.
3:00 – Unibet Golden Mile Handicap (Class 2) – 1m
The drying ground is a major positive to the chances of both Path Of Thunder and Maydanny.
Path Of Thunder came from behind to win at Newmarket (good to firm) 22-days ago and is well in under his 3lb penalty.
Maydanny won a 1m 2f handicap at the meeting last season. The 5-year-old bounced back from a poor run in the Hunt Cup to run Magical Morning ¾ length at Sandown 27—days ago. Granted he got the run of the race out in front that day but his jockey did put up 3lb overweight. He’s a good handicapper when able to get out in front and has a handy draw in stall 5.
Magical Morning reopposes he has a 3lb penalty to carry for his Sandown win and now meets Maydanny on 6lb worse terms. Raced mainly on a sound surface but is out of a Pivotal mare so should be effective an easier surface.
The talented but unreliable Acquitted was 1 ½ lengths back in third behind Magical Morning at Sandown. He’s entitled to get closer here but stall 13 could be better.
Rhoscolyn was a notable improver earlier in the season with a hat-trick of handicap wins at Beverley, here (7f) & Epsom in May/June. Bounced back from a low-key run at Chester when a ¾ length 2nd of 6 to Brunch in Pontefract Listed race 5-days ago. Now 12lb higher than for the last of his wins at Epsom but open to a bit more improvement at a mile and does go well on soft ground.
Stablemate Escobar goes well in strongly big field handicaps and finished third in this in 2019 and was a very unlucky 8th in 2018. Ran as well as could expected in a steadily run Group 2 Lennox Stakes here on Tuesday. Needs all the cards to fall right but he won’t be inconvenienced if the rain does arrive to ease the ground again.
Besides Rhoscolyn & Escobar trainer David O’Meara also saddles Shelir. The 5-year-old has been knocking on the door in mile handicaps at Ayr on his last two starts. Has been dropped 1lb since his last run and has a good draw for a prominent racer in stall 1.
Johan was back to his best when winning at Salisbury. He showed a good battling attitude to hold of his rivals inside the final furlong. He been nudged up 4lb for that success but is effective on rain softened ground. Ryan Moore booked for the ride and the 4-year-old has nice draw in stall 2.
Verdict: Another handicap where you can make a case for plenty of the field. Both Path Of Thunder & Maydanny need the rain to stay away but are on good marks if it does. David O’Meara has a strong hand of contenders with Rhoscolyn, Shelir and Escobar. William Haggas & Ryan Moore combined to win this in 2018 and have a live contender in Johan.
1pt win – Johan – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
1pt each way – Escobar – 16/1 @ Ladbrokes (Paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
3:35 – King George Qatar Stakes (Group 2) – 5f
The drying ground is very much a positive for Battaash. He’s well suited to this speedy track and although he may not be the horse he was, after training setback earlier this year, he’s still the one they all must beat.
Last year’s runner-up Glass Slippers makes her seasonal return here. The Kevin Ryan yard is among the winners but the mare doesn’t have a great record fresh and may need this.
Dragon Symbol won over 5f at Hamilton in May but his best form has come over 6f when first past the post in the Commonwealth Cup and runner-up in the July Cup. May find things happening to quick over a very fast 5f.
Art Power showed plenty of speed when third in the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot and when 4th on the far side in the July Cup last time. Ease in the ground fine for the 4-year-old and the track should suit but stall 1 could be better.
Galway
5:00 – Guinness Galway Tribes Handicap Hurdle – 2m ½ f
Flying Scotsman improved for the reapplication of the cheekpieces when bolting up in Navan maiden hurdle 44-days ago. That was the 4-year-old’s first start for six months there’s a good chance he can improve again on his handicap debut. Won twice here at the festival 12 months ago and this has likely been the aim. Simon Torrens takes of a useful 3lb.
Run For Oscar didn’t get the best of runs when a 4 ¾ length 3rd of 15 behind Winner Takes Itall at Bellewstown 27-days ago. He’s up 2lb in the rating’s but he travelled through the race like a well handicapped horse and can win races off his present mark.
Wouldn’t You Agree finished ½ length in front of Run For Oscar at Bellewstown. The mare wasn’t disgraced in Listed race here on Wednesday and will appreciate the return to handicap company here.
Excelcius put in a personal best when winning for the first time over hurdles (good) 15-days ago. The handicapper has raised him 13lb for that success but he’s only had six starts over hurdles and can continue to improve. Trainer Thomas Mullins saddled a hat-trick of winners of the race between 2017-19
Arcadian Sunrise may prefer softer ground but made it 3-7 over hurdles when showing a decent turn of foot to win a Punchestown handicap hurdle at the end of May. That was just the 7-year-old’ second start in handicap company and although he’s been raised 12lb for his last win could progress again. Ran well when third on the flat at the Curragh last month.
Verdict: Flying Scotsmen won twice on the flat here last year and is a young hurdler hurdler going the right way. Last time out Killarney winner Excelcius must be respected given his trainers record in the race. Preference though is for Run For Oscar.
1pt win – Run For Oscar – 7/1 @ Bet365
5:30 – Guinness Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) – 2m 7f
Willie Mullins has strong hand of contenders in this valuable handicap hurdle
Jazzaway was a ½ length 2nd of 16 behind Cheltenham Festival Pertemps Series Final winner Mrs Milner here 12 months ago over an extended 2m. Was off for nine months before winning 2m handicap hurdle at the Punchestown Festival. The mare hasn’t been the easiest to keep sound as this will only be her third run since January 2020. She’s stays 2m 3f but stamina for 2m 7f must be taken on trust
Stablemate Stratum won the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot last month and looks on a good mark for his return to hurdles. The choice of stable jockey Paul Townend.
My Sister Sarah finished runner-up in this 12 months ago, having previously run in the amateur riders race earlier in the week. The mare finished 6th in that race on Monday and bids to go one better than last year. The stronger the pace the better her chance.
Another interesting runner from the Willie Mullins yard is French Made. A useful juvenile hurdler three seasons winning twice, including a Grade 2 hurdle at Fairyhouse in April 2019. The mare has been off the track for a 782-days but would be interesting off this mark if she has retained her old ability.
Lynwood Gold a useful staying flat handicapper. He got left at the start in the amateur rider’s handicap here on Monday but still managed to finish 5th of 19. Ran like something was amiss when pulling up on his last start over hurdles at the Punchestown Festival. Prior to that had finished a 2 ¼ length 3rd of 12 at Fairyhouse in April.
Visionarian put in a career best effort on RPR’s when winning a Down Royal handicap hurdle 42-days ago. Up 7lb for that win demands more improvement from the 6-year-old but the step up to 2m 7f could bring out more progress in the him.
Place Des Vosges was 7 ¼ lengths in 4th behind Visionarian at Down Royal. Prior to that she had shown she stayed 3m when winning a Listowel handicap hurdle. The drop back to an extended 2m 4f probably didn’t suit the mare and she will be suited by the return to further.
Verdict: Had to look beyond the Mullins runners. Stratum has the class to win this but hasn’t always convinced with his hurdling. If Jazzaway’s stamina holds out she can go close. No stamina issues with last year’s runner up My Sister Sarah. Visionarian need to improve again to overcome a 7lb rise in the ratings but today’s longer trip could enable him to do so.
1pt win – My Sister Sarah – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Visionarian – 10/1 @ Bet365
7:10 – Guinness Galway Blazers Handicap Chase – 2m 6 ½ f
Sapphire Lady made 2 wins from 3 runs since going chasing when easily beating four rivals in a Mares Chase at Punchestown 62-days ago. She jumped well last time and looks on a competitive mark for her handicap debut.
Everlastingpromise came up against an improver on his bid to win Killarney handicap chase for the second year running 14-days ago. Gets the first-time tongue tie for his first run beyond 2m 5f. Should go close if his stamina lasts out.
Popong was in the process of running a big race when falling at the last at Leopardstown over Christmas. Ran even better when a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 20 behind Brahma Bull at Punchestown Festival. Nicely treated if reproducing the best of last seasons efforts but she has run below par on her last two starts, including when a well beaten third behind one of today’s rivals Funky Dady at Tipperary 12-days ago.
Funky Dady is first reserve here. He’s been raised 9lb for that Tipperary success but he’s only had the four starts over the larger obstacles, winning two of them, and looks the sort to improve further with more experience.
Plan Of Attack stays 3m 2f as he showed when an excellent 4th of 23 in the Kim Muir Handicap Chase at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival. He didn’t have the best of luck last season but was in the process of running well in the first-time blinkers when stumbling and falling three out in this year’s Kim Muir. Below that level of form when only 7th in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown when last seen in action. This trip looks on the short side for the 8-year-old but he’s not totally ruled out for a yard that won this in 2016 & 2017.
Dunvegan has won just one of his nine starts over fences but he’s threatens to win a decent pot over fences. A respectable 6th of 26 in the Topham Handicap Chase at Aintree in April (sent off just 10/1). Before putting a career best effort when a 4 ¼ length 3rd of 24 in valuable handicap chase at the Punchestown Festival (7/1 favourite). Staying on well at the finish over 2m 4f. He’s worth another try over this sort of distance but his best form so far has come over shorter.
Verdict: An intriguing renewal of the “Blazers”. There’s a decent pot in Dunvegan when all the cards fall right. Funky Dady is an improving handicap chaser who must be on the shortlist if he gets a run. Everlastingpromise won’t be far away. Sapphire Lady looks on a good mark for her handicap chase debut but does take on more experienced rivals.
1pt win Dunvegan – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Funky Dady – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John