Hi all,
Yesterday was tough on the betting front but the well backed Toro Strike saved the day in the lucky last at Goodwood.
Dean Street Doll ran well to finish third in the first and I thought Rochester House was going to hold on in the marathon race but got chinned in the final strides. Royal Rendezvous also ran a cracker to finish runner-up in the Galway Plate. If either or both had had won, it would have been a very good day indeed.
Qatar Goodwood Festival – Day 3
Onto today’s action at Goodwood & Galway. The highlight of day three of Glorious Goodwood is the Group 1 Nassau Stakes and it looks an intriguing renewal of the race. Over at Galway the feature race is the Galway Handicap Hurdle.
I can’t say I have to many strong fancies at Goodwood today and Galway looks better for some value bets.
1:45 – Unibet You’re On Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f
Zabeel Champion had no issues with soft ground when winning at Newmarket 20-days ago. A previous winner on good he looks fairly ground versatile. Up 8lb for his last win demands more but given he’s only had five career starts more progress could be forthcoming.
Magnetised looked a useful prospect when winning a heavy ground maiden at Doncaster on his racecourse debut last October. The colt showed he had trained on when runner-up in a Thirsk novice 24-days ago. There should be more to come and an opening handicap mark of 87 could be lenient if he handles the track.
Luigi Vampa made a promising seasonal return when 5th in a Newmarket handicap last month. Unseated his jockey at the start at Haydock and has since been gelded. Each way claims for the inform David Menuisier yard.
Verdict: Zabeel Champion looks solid. The lightly raced Magnetised looks on a good mark for his handicap debut but he’s been well found in the market. Luigi Vampa has each way claims with bookies paying four places.
0.5pts each way – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
3:15 – Qatar Nassau Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Fillies & Mares) (Class 1) – 1m 2f
Seven fillies go to post for the feature race of day three. The first thing you notice is the lack of pace. This race could turn very tactical.
Fancy Blue built on the promise of her 2nd of 11 in the Irish 1000 Guineas when landing the Group 1 Prix de Diane (French Oaks) at Chantilly 25-days ago. Just the four career starts and is open to more progress. It will be interesting if Ryan Moore decides to make the running with the 3-year-old.
Nazeef has won her last six starts over the past 12 months. Moving from handicap company, to winning the Group 2 Duke of Cambridge at Royal Ascot and last time out making a winning step up into Group 1 company in the Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket. First run over 1m 2f but should stay and could improve again. Has give to 9lb to Fancy Blue but could be suited by a tactical race.
Magic Wand ran well in finishing 4th to Ghaiyyath in the Eclipse. The better ground the better her chance and she must be respected back against her own sex.
Deirdre was one place behind Magic Wand in the Eclipse, The 6-year-old was giving away race fitness to Magic Wand that day, should be all the better for that run and can finish ahead of that one here, Won this last year and has a good chance of back to back wins in the race with drying ground in her favour.
Verdict: This race could turn tactical which may not suit Deirdre. Nazeef had the speed to win a slowly run mile race last time so won’t be inconvenienced if this comes a test of speed rather than stamina.
3:45 – Gusbourne Nursery Handicap (Class 2) – 7f
William Bligh put his experience to good use when handling soft better ground than his rivals in Haydock novice last time. Top weight for his nursery debut but is the one to beat if he’s as effective on quicker ground.
Study the Stars has shown ability on all three starts and should do better now switched to nurseries for the first time.
The Richard Fahey trained Samara Bay won on her nursery debut at Catterick 8-days ago. Has a 6lb penalty for that success and this a much better race. However, she won with plenty in hand that day and could go in again.
Fahey also saddles Quarantini. The daughter of Showcasing wasn’t suited by the pace of the race when third at Newcastle 19-days ago. Was doing her best work at the finish and a better overall gallop will see her in a better light. A mark of 71 looks workable and she can go well. Trainer Richard Fahey saddled the 2018 winner.
Richard Hannon won this in 2017 with Billesdon Brook and he saddles Mark Of A Man & Running Back. The latter has finished runner-up on both starts and looks the sort who can improve for the step into handicap company and step up to 7f. Mark Of A Man won at the third attempt at Chepstow over 7f last time. Needs to improve for the step into handicap company.
0.5pts each way – Samara Bay – 14/1 @ Bet365
4:55 – Tatler Nursery Handicap (Class 2) – 5f
Another nursery handicap concludes today’s action.
Winter Power, trained by Tim Easterby, bolted up on her nursery debut three days ago. She will be hard to beat under her 6lb penalty, if in the same form here.
Acklam Express built on the promise of her Beverley racecourse debut when winning at Hamilton 18-days ago. Capable of more improvement now stepping into handicap company and can get into the places.
Golden Bear has shaped with promise on both starts over 6f. Has been gelded since finishing 5th of 11 at Windsor 44-days ago. Interesting on handicap debut back down to 5f and has each way claims.
1pt each way – Acklam Express – 6/1 @ Bet365
Galway
6:15 – Arthur Guinness Handicap Hurdle – 2m
There’s one I really liked here at a big price and it’s The Rubinator. The 6-year-old won a maiden at Wexford last summer and was still very much in contention when falling at the last on his handicap debut at Listowel last September. First run since a poor run at Navan at the end of September. Get’s the first time cheekpieces and can race off the same mark as at Listowel. The rain that fell at the track yesterday is a bit of an unknown but if he’s not inconvenienced by underfoot conditions can go well.
0.5pts each way – The Rubinator – 18/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
6:45 – Guinness Galway Hurdle (Grade A Handicap) – 2m
Nineteen are declared to meet the starter for this valuable handicap hurdle with €118,000 on offer to the winner.
Hearts Are Trumps can normally be relied on to run well in these big field 2m handicap hurdles without winning. He finished 6th of 18 in this 12 months ago, 2lb lower today. A C&D winner two years ago he can be competitive again and has each way claims although he didn’t beat a rival on his return from a 208-day break at Tipperary last month.
Felix Desjy was a high-class novice hurdler two season back finishing 5th in the Supreme Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival before going on to win a Grade 1 at Aintree. Not seen over hurdles since finishing runner-up to Klassical Dream at the 2019 Punchestown Festival. Returned from 430-day break and advertised his well-being when easily winning a 2m maiden on the flat at Navan 27-days ago. Has a big weight to defy and trainer Gordon Elliott is 0 winners from 23 runners in the race in the past 12-years but he can’t be ruled out.
Elliott also saddles Aramax, a young hurdler very much on the upgrade. A winner of a juvenile hurdle at Naas in February. He then ran on strongly to win the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham a month later. He’s only had six starts over hurdles so is open to further progress. Up 4lb for his Cheltenham success but it’s no easy task for a 4-year-old to win this, last winner from that age group was in 2000.
Willie Mullins has saddled the winner of this race twice since 2016. He runs five today and all five have live claims.
Buildmeupbuttercup is the choice of Paul Townend. The mare often runs well in these big field handicap without winning. Finished 5th of 22 in the Ladbroke Hurdle at Leopardstown in February and posted a career best when 4th of 24 in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham a month later. She travelled like a well handicapped horse in the County but just didn’t get up the Cheltenham hill. A winner on the flat here 12 months ago she probably needs to be produced as late as possible if she’s to get her head in front here.
Stablemate Aramon finished two places ahead of Buildmeupbuttercup in the County Hurdle. He’s since gone on to win a Grade 3 at Tipperary 34-days ago. No easy task under top-weight of 11-10 but he’s got a touch of class and as long as the ground doesn’t ease to much is a contender.
Mt Leinster won a 1m 4f maiden here on the flat on Monday. A decent novice hurdler last season winning a maiden hurdle at Leopardstown at Christmas. Was then sent of 5/2 for a Grade 1 Novices hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival but was no match for stablemate Asterion Folange & the Gordon Elliott trained Easywork who went on to finish a respectable second to Envoi Allen in the Ballymore at Cheltenham. Given his liking for the track he’s not without a chance on his handicap hurdle debut if this doesn’t come to quick.
Tudor City won this 12 months ago. He’s 8lb higher this time around but Sean O’Keeffe takes off a handy 5lb. The 8-year-old returned from a 268-day absence with a nice prep for this in the Cork Derby 25-days ago. Should be spot on fitness wise and must command respect in his bid for back to back wins in the race.
Verdict: Both Gordon Elliot & Willie Mullins have a strong hand in this year’s race. Buildmeupbuttercup always the bridesmaid never the bride can go close if the race is run to suit. Mt Leinster likes the track and if the quick turn round isn’t an issue is another who can run well. At a big price I can see Hearts Are Trumps outrunning his odds.
1pt win – Buildmeupbuttercup – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
0.5pts each way – Hearts Are Trumps – 50/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
1pt each way – Mt Leinster – 14/1 @ Bet365 (paying 5 places ¼ odds)
Cheers
John